When there are only three or four games, we will not put out the full DFS Playbook, but will do optimal lineups along with a breakdown of the slate. Tonight, we have the typical Friday Night slate with four games to consider.
First off, a disclaimer. I highly recommend focusing on just GPPs on the shorter slate. I think there’s enough skill to play cash games, but there’s going to be a lot more variance than usual.
4:00 PM ET:
Sidney Crosby will indeed play. You can swap him for Brent Burns even and then take on a punt play err value defenseman. San Jose's depth could take a hit as Melker Karlsson and Jannik Hansen are both game time decisions.
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New York Islanders @ Pittsburgh Penguins (Pittsburgh -200 favorites) - 7:00 PM ET
Starting Goalies: Jaroslav Halak (NYI) [Confirmed] vs. Marc-Andre Fleury (PIT) [likely]
Top Plays: John Tavares, Sidney Crosby
Top Values: Andrew Ladd, Nick Leddy, Nick Bonino, Mark Streit
At press time, Pittsburgh was quite the favorite despite losing to Ottawa in a shootout and playing on the back end of a back to back tonight. The line is volatile with a few questions on the status of Sidney Crosby. His slash of Marc Methot's finger could result in a call from "Player Safety". If Crosby were to be suspended, that would cause some havoc with lines and make Pittsburgh much less of a play on Friday night. It would also downgrade their goal projections significantly. Going from 3.5 to 4 down to 2.5 to 3 is serious. Since Crosby is now playing, Nick Bonino becomes a more sneaky value play once again.
New York is missing Ryan Strome now. Their depth is not where it should be and their defense is still considered porous. Despite this, they are treading water and they may get Jaroslav Halak back in net who was hot in Bridgeport of the AHL. Yes, you read that right! Halak has been called up on an emergency loan. New York's first line and even power play will be in the spotlight here. Again, the Islanders have shown an ability to score some goals in these match-ups.
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Detroit Red Wings (TAM -120 favorites) - 7:30 PM ET
Starting Goalies: Andrei Vasilevskiy (TAM) [Confirmed] vs. Petr Mrazek (DET) [Confirmed]
Top Plays: Nikita Kucherov, Henrik Zetterberg
Top Values: Brayden Point, Jake Dotchin, Tomas Tatar, Anthony Mantha
It will be interesting to see how Tampa comes out tonight considering they have given up three or more goals in four straight games now. Part of that is due to inconsistent goaltending but part of that is because their team defense is compromised with several players in roles they are not accustomed to. However, Brayden Point is excelling as Nikita Kucherov's center. They may even have more chemistry than Kucherov and Tyler Johnson. Point is now having to play over 20 minutes a night (played 21:14 against Boston). This dynamic duo will be one to watch along with Victor Hedman and Jake Dotchin, who are turning into a nice first pairing defensively.
The same could be said for Detroit as defensively they can be a sieve and their goaltender tonight has been all over the place. Petr Mrazek has just one win in his last seven starts and yet he is getting the nod. Three or more goals allowed has been all too common for him as well. Detroit's first line is the one to watch especially at even strength. They have given Tampa fits in the past and the Lightning are banged up. This game will feature bouts of low event and higher event hockey mixed together. The question is how much of each does happen. Detroit's power play is slightly improved over the last month or so and could play a role.
San Jose Sharks @ Dallas Stars (SJS -160 favorites) – 8:30 PM ET
Starting Goalies: Aaron Dell (SJS) [Confirmed] vs. Antti Niemi (DAL) [Possible]
Top Plays: Brent Burns, Jamie Benn,
Top Values: Patrick Marleau, Logan Couture, John Klingberg, Patrick Sharp
San Jose has been struggling to score of late and is averaging less than two goals per game over the last six contests. Even Brent Burns has just three points in his last ten games but is still a top plays because it is Burns. He does have the shot and chance output to indicate something is going to give eventually. Logan Couture and Patrick Marleau continue to be viable plays and have solid power play correlation against a penalty kill that is dismal to say the least.
Dallas looks like a team just playing out the string. They played a bit of a wild one in Chicago last night that somehow ended up only a 3-2 game in a shootout. The concern is that San Jose recently blew out Dallas 5-1. The Stars do play fractionally better at home yielding only 2.81 goals per game. Weirdly, Antti Niemi plays much better in Dallas and he may start tonight. However, this does come down to the star power. Jamie Benn has played pretty well of late but Tyler Seguin is just going through the motions and struggling even with generating chances. They will need a much better effort across the board tonight.
Winnipeg Jets @ Anaheim Ducks (Anaheim -230 favorites) - 10:00 PM ET
Starting Goalies: Connor Hellebuyck (WPG) [Possible] vs. Jonathan Bernier (ANA) [Confirmed]
Top Plays: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele, Ryan Getzlaf, Rickard Rakell
Top Values: Dustin Byfuglien, Bryan Little, Ryan Kesler, Sami Vatanen
At press time, Winnipeg was missing five of their defensemen due to injury. That does not bode well for a team that already has problems with team defense. They give up 3.22 goals per game on the road and were lit up several times by Los Angeles and their special teams. That is a big concern. It almost does not matter who is in net because the focus from a daily fantasy standpoint gravitates toward their top six and Dustin Byfuglien. That is almost the way anyone has to go although Josh Morrissey could be a nice punt defenseman just because he plays with Byfuglien. After that, the analysis points to Winnipeg having difficulty sustaining shot and chance volume. Warch for Mathieu Perreault.
Anaheim is missing John Gibson and yet it does not matter. Jonathan Bernier is 6-0-1 in his last seven starts with a 1.54 GAA and .950 save percentage. It just seems hard to believe but even against Edmonton, Bernier made several clutch saves to seal the win for the Ducks. Anaheim is capable of taking any opponent lightly and Winnipeg;s physical play has been know to rattle the cages of the Ducks. However, this is a night where stacks could be fomed from the top six or the power play units. Ryan Getzlaf has 16 points in his last ten games and Rickard Rakell has eight goals in that span. The Ducks are projected to fire at least 30 shots on net tonight.
Stacks To Consider (Ranked From Most To Least Confident):
ANA 1: Ryan Getzlaf-Patrick Eaves-Sami Vatanen (possibly Rickard Rakell at times)
PIT 1: Sidney Crosby-Conor Sheary-Justin Schultz (wait for Crosby news in case)
NYI 1: Josh Bailey-John Tavares-Anders Lee (possibly Nick Leddy)
TAM 1: Brayden Point-Nikita Kucherov-Victor Hedman
SJS 1: Patrick Marleau-Joe Pavelski-Brent Burns (use power play first unit if necessary)
ANA 3: Rickard Rakell-Antoine Vermette-Corey Perry (line may shuffle)
Goalie Rankings:
1. Jonsthan Bernier (Confirmed)
2. Jaroslav Halak (Possible)
3. Marc-Andre Fleury (Likely)
4. Andrei Vasilevskiy (Confirmed)
5. Aaron Dell (Possible)
6. Petr Mrazek (Confirmed)
7. Antti Niemi (Possible)
8. Connor Hellebuyck (Possible)
The DraftKings example lineup and FanDuel optimal lineup was posted around 4 PM ET. If you have any questions, please let me know on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS Good luck!