When there are only three or four games, we will not put out the full DFS Playbook, but will do optimal lineups along with a breakdown of the slate. Tonight, we have the typical Monday Night slate with three games to consider.
First off, a disclaimer. I highly recommend focusing on just GPPs on the shorter slate. I think there’s enough skill to play cash games, but there’s going to be way more variance than usual.
Buffalo Sabres @ New Jersey Devils (New Jersey -120 favorites) - 7:00 PM ET
Starting Goalies: Robin Lehner (BUF) [Possible] vs. Cory Schneider (NJD) [Confirmed]
Top Plays: Taylor Hall, Jack Eichel
Top Values: Miles Wood, Kyle Palmieri, Evander Kane, Sam Reinhart
At press time, New Jersey was the favorite despite the human train wreck they have been at home (2-10-2) of late. The Devils are a completely different team on the road as evidenced by their 5-1 demolition of Columbus on Saturday. Taylor Hall had two goals on eight shots and had a third point taken away late. That first line plus the power play must execute against a Buffalo penalty kill which is 29th on the road for a reason. New Jersey has a bottom third ranked man advantage but have looked better recently.
Buffalo is much better with Evander Kane and Jack Eichel. Their depth is not where it should be and a couple of their defensemen are also banged up. Despite this, they are entertaining for the most part. More and more teams are unintentionally doing this against New Jersey (where they just go for chances) and Sam Reinhart could be a decent X-Factor tonight against a New Jersey team not fleet of foot defensively. Looking toward value on GPP’s tonight may serve well especially from the underdogs.
Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Islanders (NYI -120 favorites) - 7:00 PM ET
Starting Goalies: Frederik Andersen (TOR) [Confirmed] vs. Thomas Greiss (NYI) [Confirmed]
Top Plays: John Tavares, Auston Matthews
Top Values: Anders Lee, Nick Leddy, James van Riemsdyk, Nazem Kadri
It will be wild to see how the Islanders come out tonight considering they lost twice over the weekend to Detroit and Carolina in pretty heartbreaking fashion. On the bright side, the goals are coming. The top line is still producing at an elite rate as they have over the last dozen contests or so. However, the goaltending gave up nine goals in the two games over the weekend. Tonight's game did back off the six over/under but no one will be surprised if the over hits. New York has to attack because it can be attacked which means chances should come in bunches which opens up several plays.
The same could be said for Toronto as defensively they can be a sieve but their goaltending has been good for the most part. Toronto has been better on the road and has one of the best penalty kills in the league away from home. The James van Riemsdyk line is going to attack and be attacked but it is that Nazem Kadri line which could be intriguing. Kadri and even Auston Matthews could make good one-offs against the Islanders in cash games especially. There will be pace and that suits the Maple Leafs well.
St. Louis Blues @ Philadelphia Flyers (PHI -115 favorites) – 7:30 PM ET
Starting Goalies: Carter Hutton (STL) [Confirmed] vs. Michal Neuvirth (PHI) [Confirmed]
Top Plays: Vladimir Tarasenko, Wayne Simmonds
Top Values: Paul Stastny, Kevin Shattenkirk, Jakob Voracek, Mark Streit
St. Louis is still up and down to say the least and Carter Hutton gets the nod tonight which means who knows what to expect. The Blues allow around 3.5 goals a game on the road and have been a sieve from the goalie standpoint. They only give up 29.2 shots per 60 away from home oddly enough which is not horrendous. However, the penalty kill drops, the power play, and 5 on 5 play. It comes down to their top six and particularly Vladimir Tarasenko to get things going early against a Flyers defense which can be just as vulnerable.
Philadelphia looks little lost like the team that had a 12 game winning streak earlier in the season. Something is always missing from night to night most of the time. Their last complete effort was probably after that Michal Neuvirth shutout. It all comes down to how good the power play looks and the pace Philadelphia must generate. Too many times, the Flyers get sloppy and it costs them. The first unit power play may be where to go and even watch Brayden Schenn. He might surprise tonight.
Stacks To Consider (Ranked From Most To Least Confident):
NYI 1: Anders Lee-John Tavares-Josh Bailey-Nick Leddy
TOR3: James van Riemsdyk-Tyler Bozak-Mitchell Marner
NJD 1: Taylor Hall-Travis Zajac-Kyle Palmieri
STL 1: Ondrej Palat-Tyler Johnson-Brayden Point
BUF 2: Jack Eichel-Sam Reinhart-Rasmus Ristolainen
PHI 2: Brayden Schenn-Wayne Simmonds-Mark Streit (watch PP 1)
Goalie Rankings:
1. Cory Schneider (Confirmed)
2. Thomas Greiss (Confirmed)
3. Michal Neuvirth (Confirmed)
4. Robin Lehner (Possible)
5. Frederik Andersen (Confirmed)
6. Carter Hutton (Confirmed)
The DraftKings example lineup and FanDuel optimal lineup was posted around 4 PM ET. If you have any questions, please let me know on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS Good luck!