Josh Bell – 1B – Pittsburgh Pirates
Height: 6’2” Weight: 230 – Bats/Throws: S/R
2016 Stats (AAA) — .295/.382/.468, 14 HR, 60 RBI, 57 runs, 3 SB
2016 Stats (MLB) — .273/.368/.406, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 18 runs, 0 SB
Scouting Report
At time of writing, Bell is the No. 27 prospect in all of baseball, the No. 3 prospect in the Pittsburgh organization and the No. 2 prospect at his first base position. He was the 61st overall pick in the 2011 MLB draft and the Pirates clearly planned for the long game when giving Bell $5 million as a second-round selection. Bell graded pretty well at the plate and a big-bodied, switch-hitting first baseman enticed Pittsburgh.
Bell does an excellent job of staying inside the zone and hitting his pitches. Also, he isn’t a big swing-and-miss guy, which certainly helps keep his strikeouts down. Consider the following two numbers that illustrate the poise and discipline Bell has at the plate.
| O-Swing% | SwStr% |
Bell (45 MLB Games) | 24.8% | 7.6% |
2016 League Average | 30.3% | 10.1% |
O-Swing% - Swings at pitches outside the strike zone
SwStr% - Swing and miss percentage
Bell doesn’t chase and that’s been a real consistency of his young professional career. By doing that, he’s able to maintain solid strikeout and walk rates. For his minor league career, he posted a 14.43 strikeout percentage, which is almost seven percentage points below the 2016 major league average. At the same time, his career minor league walk rate of 9.9 percent is almost two percentage points higher than the MLB average last season. During his 152 plate appearances with the Pirates last season, he walked 13.8 percent of the time, while striking out just 12.5 percent of the time. His discipline at the plate is well beyond his 24 years.
The converted first baseman is a .303 career minor league hitter, which complements his career .372 OBP quite nicely. In 45 games with the Pirates last season, his .273 average is nothing to scoff about, but that .376 OBP is extremely noteworthy. He walked 21 times in 45 games, compared to just 19 strikeouts. He’s shown a knack to hit for a good average, which is something that will help him stick in that Pittsburgh lineup.
While Bell brings a nice batting average to the table, at this moment, he doesn’t possess the typical power expected of a first baseman in today’s game. For his minor league career, he homered just once every 42.2 at-bats. In 45 big league games in 2016, that mark remained similar at 42.7. Once again, he’s only 24-years-old, so there’s plenty of time for the power to develop. He has a smooth swing and has already shown the ability to drive balls into the gap. His power likely translates into the mid-to-upper teens at the moment, but his body and swing could eventually burgeon into a perennial 25-homer bat.
Aside from questions on the defensive side of the baseball, there’s one thorn on Bell’s rose at this point his career. Pittsburgh’s young first baseman has his fair share of struggles against southpaws. With the Pirates last season, he hit .284 with 11 extra-base hits against righties, compared to a .211 average and just four singles against southpaws. In 114 games with Triple-A Indianapolis in 2016, he slashed .307/.390/.486 with 29 extra-base hits against right-handers, compared to a .267/.366/.427 slash line with 13 extra-base hits against southpaws.
Bell has plenty of potential and there’s no reason he couldn’t become a stalwart in the middle of the order for years to come. He has a sweet stroke, especially from the left side, which should play well in a rather right-handed heavy Pittsburgh lineup. To tap into his full potential, he will need to become better against left-handers, but there’s time to improve for the 24-year-old. He may be ranked outside of the top 25 prospects in all of baseball, but his potential is immense.
2017 Analysis
Based on where he’s getting drafted, Bell presents some excellent value for the 2017 campaign. If all goes well, he gives you no lower than a .270 batting average with home runs in the mid-to-upper teens. There are some possible concerns and it all starts with his defense. If he can give the Pirates good defense at the first base position, as well as hit like he has, it’s going to be tough to take him out of the lineup, even against southpaws. However, if the defense isn’t there, David Freese (.337/.419/.543 against lefties in 2016) could become his fantasy nemesis in the dreaded platoon.
Bell can drive the ball to all parts of the field and can hit anywhere from second to sixth in the Pittsburgh lineup. Like many players, where he bats affects his fantasy value, but there is a lot to like from the 24-year-old first baseman. He currently hits the ball on the ground half the time, but if he’s able to decrease that number and start driving the ball with some lift, Pittsburgh will finally get production from the first base position. He’s certainly worth a late round investment and an extremely valuable asset in dynasty formats.
Comparisons
James Loney – with potential for more power
Eric Hosmer – good average, homers will come
Current ADP
NFBC – 293.02
Howard Bender’s Mock Draft Army – 290.80
RT Sports – 241.91