2017 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Report: Lucas Giolito

Lucas Giolito – SP – Chicago White Sox

Height: 6’6” Weight: 255 – Throws: R

2016 Stats (AA) — 5-3, 3.17 ERA, 9.13 K/9, 4.31 BB/9, 1.42 WHIP

2016 Stats (AAA)  – 1-2, 2.17 ERA, 9.64 K/9, 2.41 BB/9, 1.10 WHIP

2016 Stats (MLB )— 0-1, 6.75 ERA, 4.64 K/9, 5.06 BB/9, 1.78 WHIP

Scouting Report

At the time of writing, Giolito is the No. 11 prospect in all of baseball, the No. 2 right-handed pitching prospect, behind Pittsburgh’s Tyler Glasnow, and the No. 2 prospect in the White Sox organization. He was drafted 16^th overall by the Washington Nationals in the 2012 MLB Draft and made his major league debut this past season. However, he was the focal point of a blockbuster trade this offseason that brought Adam Eaton to the nation’s capital.

Giolito brings a filthy repertoire to the mound, headlined by a fastball that can touch triple digits. While he can touch that heralded number, he tends to sit at 96-98 mph. He has a live arm and throws a “heavy” ball. His near-elite fastball also features some run on it, you know, just adding some extra icing on the cake. The young right-hander features a plus-changeup to give him three quality pitches.

Oh yeah, he’s got a pretty filthy curveball, too, that can give opposing batters fits for years to come. See it for yourself.

via GIPHY

The 22-year-old is a big-bodied fireballer who has the arsenal of a frontline starter. There’s no doubting that. In 73 career minor league starts, the righty went 25-15 with a 2.73 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 9.68 K/9. His BB/9 of 3.00 isn’t great, but it’s almost a batter-and-a-half less than Pittsburgh’s Glasnow, whom has been the poster boy for wild young pitchers. Throughout his minor league career, he did an excellent job keeping the ball in the stadium, despite a career minor league 7.73 H/9 mark.

There’s a lot to like about Giolito and on paper, it’s hard not to get excited about him. However, when he was placed on the biggest stage and got the call to the big league squad, we saw a much different version than we were expecting. Consider the numbers in his six appearances (four starts) with the Nationals in 2016. Brace yourself, because what you’re about to see isn’t easy on the eyes.

With that in mind, where is the problem? What went so terribly wrong that he was hit harder than Ronda Rousey in her comeback attempt against Amanda Nunes? Too soon? Sorry, Ronda. I’m still a fan!

The big thing is that the velocity on his fastball was way down for one reason or another. He averaged just 93.3 mph on his fastball, which is a few miles per hours below where he normally sits. The decrease in velocity made him much more hittable. In just 21.1 big league innings last season, opposing batters hit .349 off Giolito’s heater, not to mention a .730 slugging percentage. On the other hand, big league batters struggled with his curveball and changeup, hitting just .167 and .143 respectively. Silver linings. Silver linings.

Opposing batters hit him well last year and hit him hard. Giolito forced soft contact just 14.3 percent of the time. It’s hard for any pitcher to be successful when the opposition is making medium or hard contact 85.7 percent of the time. His arsenal is too good to be getting hit that hard consistently and that’s something that can be rectified. Remember, he’s only 22 years old!

Also, he was very wild at the big league level, and the 5.06 BB/9 mark is indicative of how often he fell behind in the count. Like many pitchers, he struggled mightily when he wasn’t ahead. Look for yourself.

Giolito struggled with Washington in 2016, but keep in mind that he is only 22. Cut him some slack! Just like any pitcher in baseball, he needs to get ahead in the count more often to let his filthy secondary pitches shine. Expect Chicago pitching coach Don Cooper to work closely with the team’s No. 2 prospect and try to tap into the wealth of potential in his 6-foot-6-inch frame.