Josh Hill – TE – New Orleans Saints
3rd season – 6’5” – 250 lbs
2014 Stats: 14 receptions, 176 yards, 5 TDs
Pluses – With Jimmy Graham being traded to Seattle, Hill is in line to step up into a much larger role within the New Orleans offense. Everyone knows how much Drew Brees loves to use his tight ends, and Graham was the
main beneficiary of that over the past four seasons. Brees threw 33 touchdown passes last season and 17 of those were to tight ends. Once again, over half of his touchdown passes ended up in the hands of one of his tight ends. It’s obvious that he loves these guys and the tight end in New Orleans must be on the fantasy radar. Even if you look in 2014, five of his 14 receptions went for touchdowns. He saw limited time behind Graham, but he had a rapport with Brees even as a backup. Even in just his third season, he has shown that he is a threat in the red zone and touchdowns are what every fantasy owner is seeking, especially when it comes to this position. Even though Brees didn’t play in the team’s first preseason game, Hill did and he played well. His three receptions tied for the team lead while his 40 receiving yards led the team. It was a good initial showing for Hill, a player that many people have questions about leading up to their fantasy draft. He has good size (6’5”, 250 lbs.), reliable hands (just one drop in 2014), good speed (4.66 40-yard dash) and he can jump (38-inch vertical). Expect Brees to look his way above the defenders in the red zone quite a few times this season. There are a lot of things pointing up for Hill this season, and seeing that he is being drafted outside of the top-10 tight ends, there is a lot of value to be had here.
Minuses – While there is a lot of upside with Hill, there are some uncertainties around the whole situation. First off, Benjamin Watson is in town, so he doesn’t have a clear route to the starting job in New Orleans. Last season, Watson saw 571 offensive snaps, good enough to be on the field for 50.1 percent of the team’s offensive snaps. On the other hand, Hill saw just 288 snaps, which was just over a quarter of the team’s offensive snaps. However, even though Hill saw less time than Watson, Hill was the better fantasy player in 2014. The team has also made it pretty clear that they want to be more balanced in 2015. In recent seasons, the Saints have been one of the most clear-cut, definitive pass-first offenses in all of football. In every season since 2010, the Saints have averaged more than 40 pass attempts per game and ranked in the top five in that category. Therefore, a more balanced offense will drop the pass attempts per game, in turn dropping the volume of targets for the pass catchers in New Orleans. With Mark Ingram and C.J. Spiller in the team’s backfield, they seem to have a plan in mind to be more of a force on the ground this season. With the balanced offensive mindset and competition, Hill’s breakout season might not be in 2015, like many are hoping. However, given where he is currently being drafted, the potential reward outweighs the risk.
Summary – Don’t let Watson being a Saint stop you from drafting Hill to your team. Sure, he recorded a 68 reception season, but that was back in 2010, a whole five years ago. Watson is going to be on the field a decent amount, because he is an excellent run blocker, something the Saints are looking to better at in 2015. Between the two tight ends, Hill is the more dangerous pass catcher and is the more lucrative fantasy option. Yes, Watson is listed as the starter right now, but don’t look into that, because early training camp depth charts are prone to change. He has been doing a lot of work with both first and second string in regards to catching passes, [hopefully] insinuating that he is going to get a lot of chances to catch the ball this season. He has shown to be effective in the red zone and if he can establish himself as a precise route runner, you can pencil him in for a very productive 2015 campaign. An injury to Watson or an official announcement that Hill is the definitive starter would only increase his value tenfold. As mentioned earlier, he isn’t going to be one of the first ten tight ends off the draft board, but he is going to perform like one this season.
2015 Prediction
64 receptions, 689 yards, 7 TDs