The 2024 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 continues on Friday night with four more matchups on tap. Check out these Sweet 16 predictions and picks for Friday as you enjoy the games! 

 

 

 

We’ll break down my March Madness picks for Gonzaga vs. Purdue and Creighton vs. Tennessee. If you missed it, here are my Sweet 16 predictions for Thursday night’s games. Plus, check in on my NCAA Tournament Bracket to see how my picks have fared so far!

All of these college basketball betting odds and lines are accurate as of this writing but be sure to shop around for the best numbers. Let’s now dive into my official picks for Friday, March 29th.

Sweet 16 Predictions & March Madness Best Bets: Friday, 3/29

#5 Gonzaga vs. #1 Purdue Prediction: Bulldogs +5.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

This Friday night Sweet 16 matchup pits No. 1 seed Purdue against No. 5 seed Gonzaga in an intriguing showdown with an Elite Eight berth on the line. The Boilermakers just demolished Grambling State and Utah State by 28 and 39 points, respectively, in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, the Zags beat their first two opponents by 21 points apiece as they comfortably got past McNeese State and Kansas. 

Both squads come in red hot, so let’s break it down. This is a rematch from earlier in the season when Purdue beat Gonzaga, 73-63, back in November in the Maui Invitational. It was a 10-point win on paper for the Boilermakers, but the result deserves some important context. Gonzaga actually led by five at halftime in that neutral-court matchup and it was a back-and-forth game until the final 5-6 minutes. 

More importantly, Gonzaga has been a much better team since then and will be a tougher matchup for Purdue this time around. That November matchup was just the third game of the year for a Zags team that lost notable faces from the previous season (Drew Timme, Julian Strawther) and was still welcoming in multiple transfers (Ryan Nembhard, Graham Ike). It naturally took some time for Gonzaga to gel, as evidenced by a 9-4 record in non-conference play. 

Honestly, we shouldn’t take much from one game in November. Still, the Zags have a few reasons to be optimistic about the losing result. Gonzaga shot just 19% from three-point range in that loss. That’s a far cry from the Zags’ season-long 36.3% from three or their 41.3% since the start of February. Plus, big man Ben Gregg only logged 18 minutes with two points scored as a low-impact reserve in that game. 

 

 

 

Since mid-January, though, Gregg is not only a regular starter who plays 25-35 minutes, but he’s also averaging 10.6 PPG since joining the starting lineup. Gregg has given Gonzaga a boost on both ends of the floor over the past two months and is a big reason why the offense is playing at a much more efficient level right now. 

It also helps that Gonzaga got to face Zach Edey once already this season. That matters when it comes to dealing with the unique player that Edey is and how dominant he can be in the paint. The Zags should come in prepared with a game plan on how to limit Edey on the offensive end and then exploit some of his weaknesses on the defensive end. We’ve seen Purdue struggle when Edey isn’t at his best and others have to step up. Gonzaga has multiple bigs and the size to at Edey. 

The Boilermakers are also vulnerable if they have to play from behind and make up a deficit. It hasn’t happened much this season because Purdue has been crushing teams left and right with Edey taking over games. Still, the Boilermakers’ supporting cast outside of Edey and Braden Smith has been inconsistent this year against better competition. Gonzaga qualifies as that. It’s a well-oiled machine right now, especially offensively, and is showing no signs of slowing down. 

Since the beginning of March, the Zags have been the 3rd-best team in college basketball according to BartTorvik.com. That’s actually slightly higher than Purdue (7th), believe it or not. The Zags are capable of going on scoring runs and forcing teams to match them offensively. We just saw it against Kansas, who led Gonzaga at the half in the Round of 32 and ended up losing by 20+ points. They are capable of winning this game outright, so we’ll gladly take points with Gonzaga to push Purdue. 

 

 

 

#3 Creighton vs. #2 Tennessee Prediction: Volunteers Money Line (-144 at FanDuel)

The final Sweet 16 matchup on Friday night gives us the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds from the Midwest region matching up. Tennessee took care of Saint Peter’s in the first round before eeking out a four-point win vs. Texas in the Round of 32. Meanwhile, Creighton handily beat Akron and then survived a double-overtime classic against Oregon to advance. 

These teams both have Final Four aspirations, and it should be a close game throughout. Creighton, honestly, is lucky to be here. The Bluejays trailed Oregon late and easily could’ve lost while needing two overtimes to get past their second-round opponent. 

Creighton’s offense looked stagnant at times and the defense couldn’t do anything to stop Oregon’s two-man wrecking crew of N’Faly Dante and Jermaine Couisnard. The fact that the Ducks barely got any scoring outside of those two is worrisome for a Creighton defense that got exposed by mid-range shots (Couisnard) and dominant center play around the rim (Dante). 

Tennessee has the offensive ability to take advantage of Creighton’s defensive schemes. The Bluejays prevent three-point attempts at one of the highest rates in college basketball. The Vols, meanwhile, aren’t a great three-point shooting team (33.9% on the year) and don’t rely on the perimeter scoring as much as other top teams. Case in point: Tennessee just beat Texas last game despite shooting only 12% from three. 

 

 

 

Creighton also uses center Ryan Kalkbrenner in drop coverage on pick-and-rolls more often than not. While Dalton Knecht can get hot from three, he’s capable of draining mid-range shots all game long when Creighton gives him that spot. Look for him and dynamic point guard Zakai Zeigler to use that pick-and-roll plenty and burn the Bluejays. 

On the other end, Creighton shoots threes at the 11th-highest rate in the sport. When the Bluejays are making those shots, it’s a long night for the opponent. When they aren’t, though, their offense tends to go through cold spells. That’s where Kalkbrenner’s size and scoring touch around the rim come into play. Well, Tennessee has a defensive rim protector in Jonas Aidoo to match up with Kalkbrenner and limit his effectiveness in the paint. 

The Vols also boast one of the best three-point defenses in the country, holding opponents to 30.9% from deep this year. They have multiple defenders who have size on the wing and in the backcourt to contest all of those three-point attempts by Creighton. The Vols have the 3rd-best defensive efficiency in college basketball and will bring a unique physicality and tenacity on the defensive end to this matchup. 

If you put it all together, this looks like a bad matchup on paper for Creighton. It also has to face a Tennessee team that just played one of its worst games offensively and still pulled out the win vs. Texas. The defense for the Vols will ultimately anchor a win for Rick Barnes and Co. You can take Tennessee with the points but grabbing them to win on the moneyline is the safer play. 

 

 

 

Sweet 16 Schedule - Friday, 3/29: NCAA Tournament

Now that we've shared our Sweet 16 predictions, here is the full schedule for Friday's March Madness slate:

  • #11 North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. #2 Arizona Wildcats - 7:09 PM ET
  • #5 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. #1 Purdue Boilermakers - 7:39 PM ET
  • #4 Duke Blue Devils vs. #1 Houston Cougars - 9:39 PM ET
  • #3 Creighton Bluejays vs. #2 Tennessee Volunteers - 10:09 PM ET