Below are stacks to consider for Friday’s full, 15-game MLB DFS slate.
Milwaukee Brewers
If you’ve been paying any attention at all this season, you know that Homer Bailey is not good. Bailey got rocked for 10 earned runs in his last start, and he has a 9.24 ERA in his last five starts. In his last four starts he has only struck out nine batters in 21.1 innings, and he has as many walks as he does strikeouts in that stretch. For the season, he’s allowing almost a homer-and-a-half per nine innings, so it’s obvious any team facing Bailey is in consideration for a stack.
We might prefer this game be in Cincinnati since it has played more homer-friendly than Coors this season, but we’re still in a very hitter-friendly park in Milwaukee. According to this article by Tony Blengino, Milwaukee is in a virtual tie with Cincy as the second most hitter-friendly park overall this season, and it’s not far behind Cincy as the fourth most homer-friendly park.
Five Brewers have been at least 13 percent better than average against right-handed pitching like Bailey this season per wRC+. Those five are Travis Shaw (144 wRC+), Eric Thames (132), Ryan Braun (119), Eric Sogard (116) and Domingo Santana (113). Except for Sogard, all of them have an ISO north of .180 vs. RHP as well.
Houston Astros
To start this section the same way as the last, if you’ve been paying any attention at all this season, you know that Houston’s offense is great. They’re facing the left-handed Cole Hamels tonight, and their offense is tied with Detroit’s as the best park-adjusted offense in the league against lefties with a wRC+ of 123.
Often Houston is the chalk, and for good reason, but that can make them less appealing to stack in GPPs. But tonight, they only have the eighth highest expected run total in Vegas with an expected total under five runs, so their ownership levels shouldn’t be prohibitive. The Astros can thank the Dodgers for being the chalk tonight. LA has the third best wRC+ vs. LHP, and tonight they have the highest expected total in Vegas as they face left-hander Clayton Richard (so make sure you get a Dodger or two in your cash lineups).
Another factor working in Houston’s favor tonight is ballpark. They’re in Texas, which has been the sixth most homer-friendly park this season according to the article linked above. The heat and humidity in Dallas factor in to Texas being such a favorable hitter’s park, and it will be a slate-high 95 degrees at game time with a slate-high dewpoint of 72-73 degrees. That’s hittin’ weather.
Even with Carlos Correa on the shelf, the Astros still have six active hitters who have been more than 10 percent better than average against left-handed pitching this year per wRC+, and they are as follows: George Springer (191 wRC+), Alex Bregman (171), Jose Altuve (166), Marwin Gonzalez (121), Brian McCann (118), Jake Marisnick (111).
Chicago White Sox
While the Astros aren’t quite the chalk they so often are, let’s get way more contrarian here with the White Sox who have the seventh lowest expected total in Vegas tonight. The White Sox rank 24th in wOBA this season, and opposing starter Danny Duffy has the sixth best ERA of today’s probable starters. You can see where Vegas is coming from, but they’re overlooking a few things.
For one, the White Sox are much better against left-handed pitching than right. They rank a woeful 27th in wRC+ vs. RHP, but they rank sixth in wRC+ vs. LHP with a wRC+ of 106. Second, they’ve hit Duffy well in the past with a combined .383 wOBA against him in a total of 131 PA. We’re not saying the Sox should have a top ten expected run total tonight, but maybe they shouldn’t be in the bottom 10.
Three Sox have at least 90 PA vs. LHP this season and a better-than average wRC+ vs. LHP: Jose Abreu (180 wRC+), Avisail Garcia (171) and Tim Anderson (106). Abreu and Garcia always hit 3-4 in the lineup, and Anderson typically leads off against lefties, so that’s a solid three-man stack and the foundation for a larger stack if you’re so inclined.
You could consider adding Alen Hanson to the mix if he’s in the nine-hole, which would connect him to Anderson. Hanson is hitting .286 in 23 PA vs. LHP this season. You could also include Kevan Smith who tends to hit in the middle of the order against lefties and who had a nice game the last time Chicago faced a left-hander when he went 2-for-3 with a double and a dong against Dallas Keuchel.