Potential BABIP Surges: Fowler, Franco & Dyson

Cold spells and piss-poor batting averages got you down? Wondering when your guy is going to heat back up? Well, we’ve been talking regression a lot lately, so why not offer you up some “positive” regression here and take a look at 10 players who I think will see an increase in their BABIP which will, ultimately, result in a higher batting average and potentially decent contributions to the counting stats categories as well.

I took a look at the worst BABIPs in the league and then studied each player’s career BABIP numbers, plate discipline and swing rates. From there, I eliminated those with high strikeout rates, especially if they’re year-to-year numbers indicated a negative trend in the K-rate by three years or more. That left me here with my top-10 expected BABIP surgers. Not every guy needs a write-up as you don’t need me to tell you to stick with Mookie Betts, Anthony Rizzo and Manny Machado, but there are a few other interesting names which could prove to be solid trade targets.

Maikel Franco, 3B PHI – I wish I could tell you exactly when the turnaround will arrive, but I cannot. It is coming, though. His swing rates seem to indicate improved pitch selection and the fact that he’s swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone shows he’s not just up there hacking away. Problem is he’s also seeing a lot of first-pitch strikes, so his patience is also putting him behind in the count more often than not which puts him swinging defensively at times. Maybe a bit more aggressiveness on that first pitch, coupled with his new and improved selectivity can serve as a catalyst for a surge. If so, he could start seeing a few extra lucky bounces and push his BABIP closer to its career norm which is about 50 points higher than its current rate.

Alcides Escobar, SS KC – Throwing a bone to AL-only and ridiculously deep mixed-leaguer owners here. Maybe it’s also for the folks out there who need a little boost in stolen bases. Escobar is a tough guy to like, but if he can go back to hitting the ball on the ground more like he used to instead of popping it up all the time, he’ll have a chance to beat out some throws and increase his chance of getting some hits. Look for his ground ball rate to start to increase at the expense of a silly fly ball rate and you’ll start seeing a few extra ticks on the BABIP. That number has never been lower than .264 over the last seven seasons and that was just once where that happened. His career BABIP is .294 which is a 70 points higher than what he’s giving us right now.

Dexter Fowler, OF STL – He’s pressing at the plate right now and doing quite a bit of hacking, particularly outside the strike zone. He needs to pull back and show a little added patience here to help right the ship, because once he does, that line drive rate will start to normalize (he’s at 18% right now and his career is 22.2%) and we’ll see his BABIP begin to regress towards his career numbers. That’s a 70-plus point increase which, from atop the Cardinals lineup, should bear some serious fruit.

Jarrod Dyson, OF SEA – The strikeout and walk rates look reasonable, but the swing rates are all sorts of funky here. He’s swinging at fewer pitches overall, but he’s still swinging at more pitches outside the zone. As a result, he’s popping up a ton of pitches right now, rather than giving himself the opportunity to beat out some infield hits. He’s never going to dazzle you with a strong average or even OBP, but he’s definitely a better hitter than what his .257 BABIP indicates. That’s almost 50 points lower than his normal BABIP numbers, so while the surge is unlikely to be huge, his improved work will offer up an increase in stolen base opportunities which is really the only reason you own Dyson in the first place.