I don’t want to steal Jon Impemba’s thunder as he does the Trade Market Stock Watch article for the Seasonal Playbook Pro, but he and I were talking about the format of the piece and agreed that, in addition to the buy-low, sell-high options, he was going to start looking at MLB players as they should be seen. Not just as ballplayers, but as tradeable commodities with a fluctuating value based on performance, situation and public perception.
As such you need to look at the value of a player even before you think about trading away or acquiring a player. Has he been trending up? How much more valuable is a player after a five-homer week? What about a 1-for-22 slump with 14 strikeouts? How low does that guy’s value on the market get? What about a guy who sees an uptick in playing time due to an injury? His value rules in the short-term, but once the team is back to full-health, were you happy you gave up a solid SP3 for him?
So while Jon will be adding that to his column next week, I thought I’d take a look at some players whose values are trending up and down as we head into the weekend and get ready to set our lineups for next week.
Trending Up
Nick Hundley, C SF – His value is obviously trending up with Buster Posey on the 7-day concussion DL, but it may extend beyond Posey’s eventual return as the Giants seem to be re-visiting the idea of moving the all-star catcher to first in an effort to keep him healthy. Brandon Belt would move to left field and Hundley would become the primary backstop. It’s definitely a situation worth monitoring. They didn’t like Belt’s defense out there the first time they tried it, but were a couple of years down the road and Posey’s long-term health could be on the line.
Trayce Thompson, OF LAD – When Franklin Gutierrez injured his hamstring, the club could have just let Scott Van Slyke or Enrique Hernandez platoon with Andrew Toles and maybe bring up some middle relief help to improve the bridge between starter and closer. But they summoned Thompson instead and are hoping he can reprise his .212 ISO mark from 2016. If he can hit for power, there’s a great chance he sticks even when Gutierrez comes back, but he’ll have to show he’s more valuable than Van Slyke or Kiki.
Colby Rasmus, OF TB – He’s expected to start a rehab assignment within a week and should require a few games before the Rays bring him up. But with Mallex Smith hitting the DL, Rasmus’ chances of full-time work dramatically increase. He struggles against left-handed pitching but it doesn’t seem like the team is going to have Peter Bourjos work in a straight platoon with him. It’s still too early to grab him for a little power help, but it’s a situation worth monitoring over the next few days.
Archie Bradley, RP ARI – We discussed “the effector” in yesterday’s edition, so you know what Bradley’s situation is. Couple that with the early speculation that puts him as the eventual closer for the Diamondbacks and he’s probably worthy of a roster spot and not just as a stash. He’s going to work multiple innings during his appearances which means a nice boost in strikeouts and, so long as he continues to keep the ball in the yard, he should also help with the ratios. Throw in the possibility of adding saves to that he’s got booming value, baby!
Raisel Iglesias, RP CIN – He’s what we’re all hoping Bradley will be in a little while. The Reds went from a four-man closer committee to Iglesias getting the primary saves work. But he’s not just a regular ol’ ninth-inning guy. We’re looking at regular multi-inning appearances which will help supplement his strikeouts and ratios as well. Not so much an effector but more like a throwback to a time when closers got two-inning saves more often.
Trending Down
Greg Bird, 1B NYY – He started the season 1-for-16, missed four games with a sore ankle and the flu, returned to go 0-for-4 with three strikeouts and suddenly no one remembers his spring or his power before the shoulder injury ruined his 2016 season. He’s a forgotten man who now has to work his way back into the graces of fantasy owners, so if you dig buying low and weathering the storm, he’s dirt f***ing cheap right now.
Josh Donaldson, 3B TOR – Yes, let me put my Captain Obvious cape on and tell you how the Bringer of Rain is rapidly losing value with his trip to the DL due to a calf injury. But not just any calf injury. A recurring calf injury. Donaldson had issues late in the spring and he never gave it a full chance to heal. We’ve seen this a million times with calf injuries and yet no one seems to get it. It’s like when the doctor tells you to take antibiotics for a week. Even if you feel a million times better after three days, continue taking them for the full week. If your calf feels better after a few days of rest, rest for another week to be sure. Better safe than sorry, right Donaldson owners?
Yasiel Puig, OF LAD – A house of fire through the first four games, Puig had me drinking mojitos, smoking Cohibas and eating pressed Cuban sandwiches for every meal. But that start looks like a distant memory as he’s now posted a 4-for-22 (.182) over his last six games and everyone’s waiting to see if he breaks down mentally because he can’t handle the slumps. There’s obviously plenty of talent here, but until he shows us that he can rebound and find some level of consistency, his market value is going to sour.
Byron Buxton, OF MIN – Because at the time of writing this, he’s batting ninth and is 0-for-1 with a strikeout. Not to mention some quiet rumblings of a potential demotion. I don’t think it’s needed but swho the heck knows. When Lenny Melnick starts hyping Danny Santana, you know your guy is in trouble. I’m still standing by him but I’d be remiss if I didn’t say this is eerily similar to my regrettable love for Cameron Maybin over the years.
Matt Bush, RP MIL – He went from being a hot commodity and the handcuff everyone wanted to a cautionary tale. A 29-pitch appearance this past Monday caused some shoulder soreness and inflammation and suddenly Bush was heading back to Texas for an MRI and CT scan. The team decided that a DL stint wasn’t necessary, but instead of being the next in-line for saves, he’s bumped behind Jeremy Jeffress on the closer depth chart.