Have you ever heard of Occam’s Razor? I’ll try not to nerd out too much here and just say that William of Ockham was a 14th century philosopher who basically taught the world that often times, it’s the simplest solution that is usually the correct one. I’m paraphrasing, of course, but the principle seems to hold true, especially in relation to fantasy football draft questions and lineup decisions.
Who do I draft? Which receiver do I start?
The answer to those questions couldn’t be more simple. He who touches the ball most, scores the most points. Would you rather own a QB who throws 40 times a game or 20 times a game? Would you rather have a running back who gets 20 carries a game or 10? Would you rather start a wide receiver who is averaging 10 targets per game or a guy who averages three? Now this might be a little too much of an over-simplification, considering three red zone targets and two touchdown receptions trumps 10 targets, six receptions, 58 yards and no touchdowns, but overall, you’re probably picking up what I’m putting down.
If not, check out the charts below. What we’re looking at is the Top 10 in fantasy points, targets, team target percentage and red zone target percentage over the last three seasons. Those are the categories we’re going to be looking at most in this target article series and those numbers are going to be your first-look when deciding which players to start and sit. What you’ll see by the color-coding is that the players who appear in the top 10 of all four categories (in green) are the guys you most want and it goes down the line from green to yellow to orange to red. Green and yellow are awesome, orange is pretty darn good and red just drops down another tier or two from there; players you still like, but they aren’t the elite.
Again, this chart may be an over-simplification as well because we haven’t even discussed match-ups, quarterbacks, weather and other related factors. But you see where I’m going here, right? We’re going to start with those categories and then start looking deeper into other numbers to help with some of those hair-splitting decisions. The spreadsheets I have built to track the numbers you need to study can be seen right here. We’ll study the weekly target leaderboard to see who’s producing consistently and who might be just a flash in the pan so you don’t go wasting your waiver priority or FAAB budget on a one-week wonder and we’ll also look at the cumulative numbers for the season to see which players you should be targeting in trades and who should be looked at for the bigger picture.
While many fantasy owners will take a cursory glance at numbers such as targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns, one of the most important statistics to use is how these tables are actually organized – target percentage. That number tells you how many targets a player gets in relation to how many passes his team’s quarterback throws. How often a player is targeted in his team's passing attack tells you plenty about his role in the offense, and ultimately, his fantasy value. A high target percentage means a player is getting the ball more often than most and has significantly more opportunities to rack up yardage, find the end zone, and, in the end, put up strong fantasy numbers. So while you could be looking at two players who have a similar number of targets, the player with the higher target percentage is the one you want. He’s more of a go-to guy for his team and will thus see better opportunities. In this case, it’s the quality as much as it is the quantity.
But while organizing by target percentage is my preference, the table you will be using has a number of other statistics because of one inherent flaw in the rate stat. While a high target percentage obviously means the player is a major focal point of his team's passing attack, some players can prove to be more valuable in fantasy despite a lower target rate. For example, Jeremy Maclin may have a higher target percentage than Brandin Cooks because he is one of maybe two viable receiving options while Cooks is competing in a higher-octane offense with a number of other quality receivers.
You also have to take into consideration that a player's target rate is obviously affected by the number of pass plays called each game. Denver and New Orleans are always going to have a higher percentage of passing plays each week while teams like Buffalo and Minnesota may focus more on the ground attack. The higher number of pass plays tends to drive down the target rate.
That is why I implore you to utilize this entire table and not just assume that the player with the higher target percentage is the way to go. When I do my own analysis each week, I start with the target rate, but then I turn to the actual number of targets, red-zone target percentage and catch rate. Both catch percentage and red-zone target percentage are important to watch as both become subsets of the overall Target Percentage. If a player has a low catch rate, there is little chance of him seeing a decent target percentage. Simply put, a quarterback isn't going to throw to a guy who can't hold onto the ball.
Similarly, a high red-zone percentage may not necessarily indicate a high-scoring player in fantasy if he lacks the yardage. Sure, he may grab the six points for the touchdown reception, but without strong yardage numbers, his point total may not be as glamorous. Think of these players like touchdown vultures but for receivers. Think Kyle Rudolph. However, even a player who has a low red-zone target percentage can still produce boatloads of points if he has a high target percentage, simply because he racks up a ton of yards each game and still occasionally finds the end zone.
From there I look at the individual match-ups and finally come to a decision. Sounds complicated, but that's why this table has been assembled. It will give you an all-in-one look at all the relevant data and then I'll follow it up with some additional thoughts, weekly start/sit suggestions and match-ups to watch.
And one final note before we’re headed into Week 1, people. Use your studs. Don’t overthink and play assumed strong match-ups because they don’t exist. Just look at the point-spreads for this week. Everything is a touchdown or under this week because we have no current data to use. We can’t use practice reports and we certainly cannot use the preseason games. My advice to you is to go with the players you drafted highest first. Theoretically, they should be the most valuable on your team and in fantasy. If you drafted Russell Wilson in the fifth round and Sam Bradford in the 14th, you’re still starting Wilson even though it may appear that Bradford has a better match-up. Well, the same goes for your receivers. You’re not going to start Terrance Williams over Julio Jones because you think the Giants pass defense is weaker than that of the Bucs, are you? You better not.