When digging deep into preparation for upcoming drafts, late-round veterans can have some of the best upside in regards to return on value. With that said, lets take a close look at the pitcher's mound to find riches as we inch closer to Opening Day
Just like in the kitchen, preparation is key to successfully mastering your fantasy draft, with one of the main ingredients being finding value in the later rounds. In most cases we call these players "sleepers," but not all of these players are fresh faces that we have never seen before. In fact, the majority of the players we find in the later rounds we fine aging veterans on the decline, players returning from injury or players who have been up and down between the minor and majors still trying to find a permanent home. Whatever the case may be, these are the players that could be the difference in bringing home the trophy come September.
Since the term "deep sleeper" can mean a lot of different things, all players discussed in this series will hold an average draft position (ADP) of 250 or higher based off the most recent mock draft results of Fantasy Alarm's own Howard Bender and the Mock Draft Army. If you haven't checked out the Mock Draft Arm series,, be sure to give it a look as Howard continues to assemble some really good ADP information based on a series of mock drafts featuring experts from throughout the industry and fans alike. Now that we laid out the ground rules let's get cookin'...
Derek Holland, SP (TEX)
Mock Draft Army ADP: 250.6 ADP
A slip and fall at his home prior to the start of spring training a season ago resulted in a knee injury forced him to make just six appearances (five starts) in 2014. Early reports indicated that Holland would be able to make a midseason return following microscopic knee surgery, but that plan was sidetracked by a series of setbacks, with the Rangers’ southpaw finally making him season debut at the tail end of the season. Now back at 100 percent health, with Holland be able to help steady both the Rangers starting rotation and prospective fantasy owners?
Although his 2014 sample size was extremely small, Holland was able to finish off his shortened season on a high note. Through 34.0 innings Holland went 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA and 1.05 WHIP which are both far off from his career marks of 4.32 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. If he had played a full season in 2014 Holland would have likely reverted back to the mean, considering both his ballpark factors and the lack of offensive to support his efforts. However, his 2.19 FIP suggests that maybe he has discovered a way to be more effective without all the strikeouts (6.1 K/9).
With Yu Darvish out for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, the Rangers will be forced to rely heavily on the arm of Holland in 2015, although the addition of Yovani Gallardo should take a little pressure off the 28-year-old. However, in order for him to be successful he is going to have to work on his ground ball-to-fly-ball rate, which sits at a 0.79 over the course of his six-year career, especially in that Texas heat come summer time. Even the slightest boost in ground ball rate could be the difference in Holland being a pitch-or-ditch candidate to a fixture in all fantasy formats.
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On the plus-side, Holland did not give up a long fly a season ago, as he managed to work through 145 opponent plate appearances. Obviously that number should be taken with a grain of salt considering the lack of innings, but it is least something to take a closer look into when evaluating for upcoming drafts. For starters, his swinging strike percentage over the last two seasons (16.6 percent) is just under two points higher than his career average of 14.7 percent, which indicates he is getting more movement on his pitches, likely down in the strike zone, than previous seasons. If that trend continues, we could see even more improvement in home run percentage, ground ball-to-fly ball rate and strikeout percentage over the course of a full season.
Holland has proven to be the horse that leads the carriage in the past, and if healthy his late-season success could carry over to the 2015 making him a solid deep league pitcher to add in the later rounds of upcoming drafts. Even if the production needed to take his game to the next level don’t maturate, there is still hope for Holland’s fantasy value as he owns a career 7.5 K/9 which is definitely worth something when looking to round out a fantasy staff after the big names and rising stars come off the board. Remember, he is only two seasons removed from logging 10 wins with a 3.42 ERA, 1.28 WHIP which is better than most late-round fliers who don’t have a track record.