Fantasy Baseball Two-Start Pitchers: Week 7

There are a lot of top notch options for two starts in Week 7, but after those top 11 starters, the luster wears off quickly. Not that the top third of the middle tier is chopped liver, but with anyone outside of the top sub-tier in the "Maybe Yes, Maybe No" table, you are taking your chances in relying on them for two productive starts. Then again, baseball is a funny game, and who would have thought when the season opened that Dallas Keuchel would struggle enough to find a home in the bottom tier? Not me, although I am glad he went so high in drafts that I have no shares of him in any of my leagues this season.

Please realize that I am working off the most recent rotation information available when the article is written, but that circumstances do change due to weather conditions, injuries and general craziness with managers. If a pitcher I have listed as having two starts ends up with one (or perhaps none) in the upcoming week, I apologize but I only provide analysis, I do not set the lineups or rotations. If I discover during the week that a pitcher is going to pitch twice and is not on the lists below, I will add a comment to discuss where I would have ranked him if I had that information when this article was being written, so check back if you notice a discrepancy. Or write to me and ask my advice, I am always happy to respond.

Without further ado, here are this week’s two start pitchers:

We have 11 SPs that occupy the top tier this week. I would feel comfortable starting any of these pitchers in both their scheduled starts, as they are among the best in the game. Plug them in to your rotation and savor the results.

I am going to break the middle tier into three sub-tiers again this week. The top sub-tier begins with Conley and ends with Nicasio. Conley has settled into the Miami rotation comfortably. He has collected better than a strikeout per innings, but also has allowed too many walks to be totally effective (15 in 36.1 innings). He does sport a useful 3.72 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, although he was victimized on the base paths in his last outing by the Brewers to the extent of four stolen bases. Since he had not allowed a stolen base in his previous six starts, this is a new development to keep an eye on. Porcello has been pitching well, justifying the generous contract extension the Red Sox gave him last season after he arrived in Boston from Detroit. He is striking out a batter per inning, and his control is excellent this season, with just 10 walks in 46.1 innings. Plus, he has a powerful offense backing him up. Neither matchup is scary this week, as both his mound opponents are beatable.

Hendricks also has a strong offense to support him when he takes to the hill. He has lowered his ERA and WHIP to 3.03 and 1.01 respectively with his recent string of well-pitched outings, and he has been generating a ton of groundballs to go with his 7.82 K/9 rate and excellent control (1.77 BB/9). He should have a better record than 2-2, but victories are always an elusive prize for starters. Happ showed a glimpse of the current success he is enjoying in 2015, but no one certainly expected him to become so dominant this season. His superb 2.05 ERA is nearly a full two runs better than his  career average of 4.04, so the possibility certainly exists that he could encounter regression at any point this season. Still and all, riding his hot hand now seems wise, especially against a couple of weaker hitting teams in Tampa Bay and Minnesota.

Eickhoff has joined what looks to be a nice, young rotation in Philadelphia, with Aaron Nola, Vincent Valasquez and Adam Morgan. Unfortunately for Eickhoff, he is the weak link in the rotation, and currently has a 1-5 record on the season. He has only allowed more than three runs in his seven starts once, but the light hitting offense of the Phillies has put him on the wrong side of the ledger more often than not. He sports a good strikeout rate of 7.92 K/9, and has demonstrated fine control, so there is hope he can turn things around still. Plus, his FIP vs. ERA (3.69 as opposed to 4.43), an elevated BABIP of .320 and below average strand rate of 66.7 percent all indicate that he has been a bit unlucky so far this season. He has been much better at home this season, so with two games in Philly this week, he is worth a shot.

Nicasio made the Pirate rotation based on a superb spring, but has been just so-so during the regular season. Still, you have to like the 37 Ks in 37.1 innings, even if the 15 walks take the luster of his K rate. Facing Atlanta and Colorado at home should help his chances to do well this week, as his home/road splits show that he favors waking up in his own bed before heading to the ballpark.

The middle sub-tier opens with Rea and winds up with Perez. Rea was not overly sharp in his last outing against the Cubs, yielding four earned runs on seven hits, and only collecting three strikeouts. Until that outing, however, he has pitched effectively for the Padres. He does draw two unfortunate matchups this week, facing both Madison Bumgarner and Clayton Kershaw, but both starts are at Petco and that helps mollify the situation to an extent. Miley is having a difficult time keeping the ball within the park this season, having given up eight homers in his seven starts in 2016. His strikeout rate is below league average, however he has demonstrated excellent control with a 1.84 BB/9 rate over his 44 innings pitched so far. He is on the road for his two starts this week, but neither of the opposing pitchers are worrisome. Still, you need to worry about the home run tendency, especially in Baltimore and Cincinnati.

Pineda has had four decent starts where he allowed two earned runs in each game. The other three are more of an issue, as he has yielded 19 runs in those starts over 15.2 innings. His strikeout rate recommends him best as a fantasy hurler, but he is also walking better than three walks per nine innings, and is handing out base hits like penny candy (49 hits in 38.2 innings). He has pitched better away from Yankee Stadium so far this season, albeit with a small sample size of 11 innings, but he does show flashes of brilliance on the mound. If you need Ks, look to him when he is on the road. Wilson is coming off two consecutive quality starts, where he allowed just two earned runs in each contest. His strikeout rate is terrible, but he has shown good control and has managed to avoid the long ball for the most part. He is also inducing a good share of grounders from opposing batters, which has helped him be successful in his four starts since joining the Baltimore rotation at the end of April. Blair is coming off a poor start against the Phillies, where he lasted just 3.2 innings in a no-decision, as the Philadelphia bullpen lost a four run lead later in the game. A huge part of his problem is that he is walking more than he strikes out, posting an ugly 7:11 K/BB ratio. He does not let the ball leave the park often, though, and that has been a positive, and one he will need to rely on when he heads to the mound in Philly for his second start of Week 7.

Perez winds up this sub-tier, and the other Atlanta pitcher with two starts this scoring period has looked good in both his last minor league start and his most recent start against Philadelphia. Perez has teased us before, however, and thus he is here at the bottom of the middle sub-tier, as I do not fully trust him. Do not expect anything close to league average strikeout numbers and he has had his problems with control in his prior major league stint with the Braves last season. He does generate a massive amount of groundballs, with a 2.12 GB/FB ratio in his limited time with the Braves this season, but that is not what fuels fantasy value.

The final sub-tier starts with Ventura and wraps up with Manaea. Ventura is a frustrating pitcher to own, due to his depressed strikeout rate and inflated walk rate this season. He showed last season that he possesses the tools to be an effective starting pitcher, but this season has truly been a struggle for the young right handed. His last start against the Yankees was far better than the prior two appearances, so there is hope he is getting things back on track, but his matchups are not favorable this week. Eovaldi is coming off a five inning win against the Royals, but his ERA sits at 4.85 and his WHIP is an inflated 1.34 after seven starts this season. He is striking out batters at a career-best 8.44 K/9 rate, and he has shown good control. The 1.48 HR/9 ratio is a concern. He is a back of the fantasy rotation SP for the most part, but a two start week puts him into the conversation as a potentially useful SP, even with both his starts on the road.

Ray has been his own worst enemy, having to leave games before the end of the sixth inning due to his elevated pitch counts. He has lasted into the sixth just once in his last four starts, but on the positive side, he has been racking up the Ks at a 10.44 K/9 rate. His control and command are both problems, as reflected in the bloated walk rate (4.84 BB/9 over his 35.1 innings in 2016). Lamb was scheduled to pitch on Saturday, May 14, but his thumb injury has pushed that appearance back to Monday, making him a two start option in Week 7. Beware, though, since his first start in the next scoring period is just probable, not a guarantee. He is having trouble throwing his curve, and that could limit his effectiveness or even force him to miss his scheduled start. He should be a decent source of Ks once he is healthy again. Berrios and Manaea are a couple of rookies with high ceilings, but both are struggling to adjust to MLB hitters. Berrios has had more success to begin his MLB career, and the potential for double digit strikeouts anytime he takes the mound is indeed enticing. He has been driving down his ERA, but it still sits at an exaggerated 6.28. He has been somewhat unlucky with a .378 BABIP, and with an 11.93 K/9 ratio over his three starts to date, he makes for a good rookie to stash in keeper or dynasty leagues, if your league mates have not already snapped him up.

Manaea was victimized early and often by the Red Sox in his last start, leaving after 2.2 innings and eight earned runs. He had been slightly more effective in his first two starts, but still allowed four earned runs in five innings in both those games. He was a strikeout source in Triple-A, fanning 21 over 18 innings and allowing just four free passes, but that success has not fully translated to the majors. Still, Billy Beane acquired him from the Royals, and as I have noted before, if Mr. Beane likes a pitcher, then so do I. He also gets to pitch at home for both his starts in Week 7, and his home park should be a benefit against the Rangers and Yankees.

The final tier is filled with questionable options even if they give you two starts. The big surprise here is Dallas Keuchel, who has been a perennial top-tier option whose owners are accustomed to simply plugging in and forgetting about for the week. All the other denizens of this final tier are likely pitchers you drafted in the final rounds, thinking they were worth a roster spot. Or perhaps you grabbed them off the wire, when an injury or demotion left you an open slot in your pitching rotation. You are free to use them, but beware of the matchups and be ready for disaster to strike if you use them in both their appearances in Week 7.

I enjoy responding to comments, or if you do not want to put your question out for public consumption, feel free to write me at ia@fantasyalarm.com for a more personal response to your specific issue. The more detail you can provide about your team and league, including settings (H2H vs roto, points or categories, weekly or daily moves, roster size, league size, etc.) the better my response will be suited to your individual situation. I am open to questions about issues apart from starting pitching, too, as I play fantasy sports as well as serve as an analyst. As ever, good luck and Godspeed in all your fantasy endeavors.