For years, the mantra in fantasy baseball drafts has been to wait to select your starting pitchers, as pitching is deep, pitchers suffer more injuries, and pitching is too inconsistent to waste high draft picks on in non-auction leagues. I subscribed to that viewpoint, I will confess, but my experience is that those premises are no longer valid. Hitters get injured just as often as pitchers, there is plenty of inconsistency to go around in baseball that pitchers no longer have a lock on up and down seasons, and while I agree that if you are savvy enough to study starting pitchers, you can find gems in the later rounds, there is still plenty to like among the top 20-25 starters in any given season to make them a part of your draft or auction strategy. In fact, my preferred strategy is to see if perhaps a Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner, or Max Scherzer (those are my top three, but others could easily be included depending on your league setup) is available in the latter part of the first round or in the second round to provide my lock-down ace early on.

These articles that will be published prior to Opening Day, however, are not about the stud starting pitching options available in your drafts or auctions. What we are looking at are those very good options that for one reason or another are being ignored in early drafts and mock drafts. What sorts of hidden values are dropping below the 12th round in most drafts that you can snag for great value with an eye to dominating your league this season? Note: I am operating on the assumption you are drafting in a 12 team league, so all pitchers profiled here will be below the 144th pick.

I will be profiling one (or at most two) mid to late round options in the starting pitching realm on a bi-weekly basis (that is twice a week, not the alternate definition of every two weeks-why is English so difficult and confusing?). If you have questions about any pitchers and their viability as a “sleeper” pick, hit me up at ia@fantasyalarm.com and I will do my best to provide some insight. Also, I am always available to answer starting pitching (or other fantasy baseball) questions all season long.

Jimmy Nelson – RHP – Milwaukee Brewers

2015 Stats: 10-10, 157.0 IP, 4.99 ERA, 138 K’s, 1.28 WHIP

Current ADP

Mock Draft Army ADP: 263.0 (based on current ADPs generated by Howard Bender’s Mock Draft Army results)

National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC): 286.65

FSTA Draft on January 14th, 2016: Drafted 20ththth round (252nd overall)

LABR Mixed Draft on February 16, 2016: Drafted 20th round (293 overall)

Availability

Nothing has really changed for Nelson from when the FSTA draft was held in January and what we are seeing now. He is available as a late round selection, so fits in well with this series of articles. Whether you want to risk a pick on him this season is what we will look at below.

Upside

He has been hammered by left-handed batters since arriving in the majors in 2013 but he has developed a curve that replaces his changeup and there is hope that will help to balance out the lefty/righty splits. He does throw his fastball in the mid-90s, and his extreme groundball tendencies (2.00 GB/FB ratio in 2015) help keep the ball in the park (0.91 HR/9 over 177.1 innings last season).

Downside

The issues he has had with left-handed batters have pushed down his production since he arrived in the majors, and last season was especially dramatic, where lefties hit .302 against him as opposed to a .202 BA vs right handed hitters. He is an average strikeout pitcher, and needs to work on his control to limit the free passes, which he handed out at 3.30 BB/9 rate last season. 2015 was his first time to become a regular full-time rotation fixture, and that experience should benefit him, but he needs to step it up soon if he is going to be anything more than a back of the rotation fantasy arm.

Summary

For me, there are many more intriguing late round options to select for the back end of my fantasy rotation this season. I do not like his team’s chances to provide a ton of win opportunity for him, but remember he was the Brewer’s top pitching prospect when he was summoned to the majors in 2013. Of course, at 26, it is time for him to blossom to become a true foundation to the Milwaukee rotation. If he shows an ability to get left handed hitters out consistently, then his stock should rise as the season progresses. Right now, though, you would do well to leave him until the end of your drafts and if he is sticking around in the late rounds, take a flier on him without a huge cost.