It is Saturday, and that means it is again time to take a look at some starting pitching options going in the late rounds of early drafts that possibly could help you round out your rotation with some real value. ADPs are moving as more mock and real draft results pour in, but I have yet to see any dramatic movement towards the round 20 and below players as of yet, at least among those I have been profiling. Now that spring camps have opened and exhibition games slated to start up next week, expect things to start to get interesting in terms of players moving up and down in the ADP lists.

To spell out some guidelines, this series of articles is going to profile starting pitchers that have an ADP of 200 or better (meaning taken later than pick 200). In a 10 team league, those pitchers would be going in round 21 or later (it would be mid-way through round 16 in a 12 team league). By that point in your draft, you have more than likely filled out your starting offense and picked up an ace and closer, perhaps a couple more pitchers. Your mileage may vary depending on your actual league settings, but you get the general idea.

Please note that the projections for each of the pitchers below are my own, that I create after comparing various sources and adjusting for expected playing time, specifically, innings pitched for starting pitchers. As for the ADP numbers, I am looking at the ADP results our very own Howard Bender is compiling with his Mock Draft Army mocks.

Danny Duffy KC ADP: 259.6

Danny Duffy Kansas City RoyalsThe 26-year old left hander joined the Kansas City rotation last May when Bruce Chen hit the DL, and didn't look back. He started 25 games, tossing 149.1 innings over the course of the season and posting an excellent 2.53 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He is currently slotted in as the Number Two starter for the Royals behind Yordano Ventura, but let's see how things play out over the spring. He has come into camp, talking about the changes he has made to his off-season conditioning program, and has added 17 pounds to his frame. His biggest drawbacks are the mediocre 6.81 K/9 and 3.19 BB/9 rate he carried in 2014. He throws his fastball in the mid to low 90 MPH range, so the strikeouts should pick up, based on what he showed in the minors, but his control has been up and down throughout his career. As a 21st round pick, even with some regression, his ratio stats should still be valuable this season, especially if he can show some better control. Speaking of regression, do not expect a .247 BABIP and 80.5% strand rate this upcoming season, but a .275 BABIP and 77% strand rate are not out of line.

2015 Projections:  10 Wins/145 K/3.70 ERA/1.29 WHIP over 175 innings

 

Rick Porcello BOS ADP: 263.3

As a predominantly ground ball inducing starting pitcher, do not be overly concerned about Porcello's move from spacious Comerica Park to Fenway Park. His 90 MPH fastball does not inspire confidenceRick Porcello Boston Red Sox that he will ever be more than a average strikeout pitcher (below average is more likely), but his control (1.80 BB/9 in 2014) and sinker will keep his ratios in an acceptable range. Pitching in front of a better infield defense in Boston should also help him continue to develop as a top of the rotation pitcher, especially with the Red Sox starting pitchers in flux due to the free agent departure of Jon Lester and the 2014 trades of Jake Peavy to the Giants and John Lackey to the Cardinals. If you have secured your strikeouts with the rest of your rotation, then you may want to look to Porcello for some ratio help and the potential for double digit victories.

2015 Projections:  13 Wins/125 K/3.78 ERA/1.24 WHIP over 190 innings

 Tanner Roark WAS ADP: 264.4

I am not as high on Roark as I was before the Nationals clouded their starting pitching ranks with the addition of Max Scherzer, since his role as the fifth starter is now seriously in doubt. Current speculation is that Washington will be trading one of their SPs, the question is which one. As shown by my projections below, I am banking on Roark finding a role as a starter this season, and the National's manager, Matt Williams, has indicated that Roark will continue to pitch as a starter this spring to keep his arm stretched out. He only throws in the low 90s and does not generate a ton of Ks, but his ground ball inducing ways (1.20 GB/FB ratio in 2014) and the late movement on his pitches speaks well his ability to continue to baffle hitters, and thus suffer limited regression this season. I also tend to like SPs that demonstrate control, and with a 1.77 BB/9 over 198.2 innings in 2014, Roark's control is excellent. Keep your eyes on what happens with the National rotation in March, to see whether Roark starts the season in a rotation or has to wait for an injury to resume starting duties.

2015 Projections:  7 Wins/125 K/3.86 ERA/1.25 WHIP over 170 innings

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Wily Peralta MIL ADP: 273.9

Peralta broke out big time in 2014, racking up nearly 200 innings (198,2 IP) and earning 17 victories for eighth best in the NL last year. The knock on him is that he doesn't put up strikeout numbers any Wily Peralta Milwaukee Brewersbetter than league average (6.98 K/9) despite throwing his fastball in the mid-90s. Having just two dependable pitches, a sinking-fastball and a hard-breaking slider may be the cause for that anomaly but he also has an effective GB/FB ratio (2.25 GB/FB in 2014) that gets him out of trouble and keeps the ball in the park, as well. Very acceptable ratios make him a strong value late in your drafts, although a further improvement in his control would go a long way to making him jump up the draft board. Something to keep a eye on in the spring. Truth be told, I like Peralta best of four starting pitchers profiled here today and will be targeting him in my upcoming drafts.

2015 Projections: 14 Wins/170 K/3.70 ERA/1.28 WHIP over 200 innings

Continue to peruse these articles as we try to uncover some late round gems for you to target in your drafts, and allow you to build a formidable starting rotation without sacrificing offense to do so. Also, if there is interest in later round middle relievers, I would be glad to include those pitchers in future articles as well. If you have any questions about starting pitching or fantasy baseball, feel free to contact me at ia@fantasyalarm.com.