Workload Concerns: Will Their Arms Fly Off?

If you have watched or listened to an MLB game recently, you are aware of the emphasis that is put upon any pitcher and the number of pitches they have thrown in a game. While pitch counts and/or inning limits are becoming more prevalent in the amateur levels, so too is the practice of young ballplayers joining several leagues to skirt the protection afforded under the current guidelines. Since October 22, 2013, when Matt Harvey went under the knife, there have been 32 Tommy John surgery (TJS) procedures performed on major league pitchers (the number swells to 92 if we include minor leaguers, with nine of those undergoing the procedure being position players). 

Last season, I profiled 26 starting pitchers that had seen a 10 percent increase in the pitches thrown column from 2012 to 2013. Of those 26 pitchers, two ended up needing TJS (Patrick Corbin and Kris Medlen), while six other pitchers from last year's list went on the DL for significant periods of time (CC Sabathia - knee, Derek Holland - knee, Dillon Gee - strained lat, Doug Fister - strained lat, Joe Kelly - hamstring, and Joe Saunders - ankle). This year the parameters being used to discuss starting pitchers at risk are 120 minimum innings pitched with a 10 percent increase in pitches thrown between 2013 and 2014. 
 

Anytime you increase your workload by 50 percent from one season to the next, there is a huge level of concern about potential overuse. Ross missed his last starts of the year with a flexor strain. Kluber's big jump in pitches thrown was partly as a result of his missing time in 2013 with a finger injury. McCarthy has a history of shoulder issues that limited him to 111 and 135 innings in 2012 and 2013. Archer actually pitched 178.2 innings in 2013 between Triple-A and the majors, so his increase is not nearly as dramatic as his MLB pitch count data suggests. Danks' increase comes as a result of missing the first two months of 2013 following 2012 shoulder surgery. Of these top six, McCarthy presents the most risk, since he seems to be snake bit when it comes to staying healthy.

The next group begins with Weaver and runs through Vargas. Weaver missed time in 2013 with a broken left elbow (his non-pitching elbow as a RHP) causing his discrepancy in pitch total. With his style of pitching, I see him as a low-risk option. The same can be said for Harang, who has always been an innings eater type of starter. Hudson developed a hip issue late last season and came off a broken fibula in 2013, but has been a durable pitcher for most of his career. Age is a concern, though (39). Price had a triceps injury in 2013, limiting his innings, and was not as dominant on a regular basis in 2014, though his overall effort was still impressive. Chen missed some time in 2013 with an oblique injury, but returned to his inning-eating ways in 2014 and I see him as a reliable option in 2015. Koehler has stretched his arm out pitching in the minors before the Marlins called him up in 2013 and he is another I have little concern about this upcoming season. Estrada saw his workload increase as the Brewers used him out of the bullpen in 21 games in 2014. He and Vargas, the soft-tossing control specialist who was a major addition to the Royals' rotation in 2014, both strike us as safe if unexciting starting options for 2015. 

Looking at the bottom half of the chart, Hammel, Richards, Niese, Cobb, Strasburg, Burnett, Haren and de la Rosa have all had injuries that cost them parts of their seasons, most recently Richards who went out with a torn left patellar tendon. All of them are risky for this season. Note, though, Greinke, Leake and Kennedy have never had serious arm issues and Cobb missed time after getting hit in the head by a line drive. None present a significant cause for concern with regard to their pitch count increase.

Keep your eye on those pitchers above who have been identified as risky and temper your draft day enthusiasm. Those that are considered low risk options, draft away and hope for the best.