UFC on Fox 25: Weidman vs. Gastelum

Saturday Night’s UFC card brings us to Long Island, New York, where the card will be broadcast free on Fox for the masses to watch. This is a great card for the fan who likes high-paced, exciting matchups. The crazy thing about this card is that this is the first time that DraftKings posted fighter salaries without having the Vegas odds posted first! With this revelation there are many opportunities on the card to find value, so as a handicapper, I’d highly recommend that all you DFS fanatics out there do some research. You want to understand where each fighter is ranked when it comes to the DraftKings salaries, and also where they are ranked as it pertains to the Vegas odds. The fighters that are ranked higher based on the Vegas odds than they are within the salary confines of DraftKings are the fighters you want to target from a value perspective. I keep this as a main theme throughout my previews below though, so no need to do all the digging on your own. I’ve done it for you.

Also keep this in mind, feel free to mix and match any fighter that I have listed within my optimal lineups, as I think many of these guys can be rostered very easily in both formats. If you like a guy in GPP, then you should like him in cash as well, and the way that these guys are priced for this event, you may even find yourself with plenty of room left within your salary cap. Do not worry about that. Having additional salary cap leftover isn’t a bad thing, and in DFS MMA, many will argue that it is a good thing, as you’ll be differentiating your lineup within the GPP tournaments that you play as most entrants will want to use the full salary allotted to them. Without further ado, let’s get into the preview of the card, and don’t forget to hear me on SiriusXM radio’s Fantasy station at 5:00 PM EST on Friday afternoon. Also be sure to follow me on twitter for the latest updates, roster thoughts, and anything else that has to do with this UFC card - @TJ_Scott_MMA.

 

Undercard

 

Fight #:

1

3 Rounds

Weight:

155

Frankie Perez

Vs.

Chris Wade

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

10

3

Record

11

3

1

2

UFC Record

4

2

2

3

Record Last 5

3

2

$7,600

DK Salary

$8,600

245

Vegas Odds

-290

38%

% Fights to Dec

71%

550

Inside The Distance Prop

226

 

Snapshot:

The first fight of the night pits Frankie Perez ($7,600) against Chris Wade ($8,600). Wade is a solid wrestler who trains on Long Island, so this card will be taking place in his backyard, but he won’t have a huge advantage, as Perez trains down the road in New Jersey with Mark Henry and some of the killers out of his gym.

Perez has had a knack for getting taken down, and not being too active to get back to his feet if he found himself on his back. If Wade gets Perez to the ground, which I do think will happen, then I think it can be a long night for Perez. If Perez can keep the fight standing, then he has an opportunity to use his crafty striking to out work Wade on the feet. I don’t think that Perez has enough wrestling skills to prevent Wade from dictating where this fight takes place, and with the new DK scoring system (ok, somewhat new), getting takedowns, and advancing positions can rack up some serious points. You don’t necessarily need a finish in order to exceed 100 points in DraftKings anymore, and I think that is exactly what will happen here.

I used to shy away from guys who had a high percentage of their fights go to a decision, and Wade falls into this category with 71% of his 14 fights going to a decision. Here’s the caveat with this approach and the new scoring system though; if you go to a decision and you are getting takedowns, and are active on the ground with advances, then you can easily score a solid amount of DK points. If you are a striker who likes to keep it on the feet and you go to a decision, then odds are that you will not be scoring more than 80 points. Wade is the former, and those guys we do not have to be concerned about not scoring. He’ll get his takedowns, and will work for a submission finish, and even if he doesn’t get it and goes to a decision, he still has a solid shot at scoring 100+ points in a decision victory.

Here’s the other interesting thing; DraftKings came out with their fighter pricing before Vegas released their lines on these fights, and this is the first time that this has ever happened. This means that if we do the proper analysis we’ll be able to find some value in the DK pricing, and that is exactly what we find with Chris Wade here. Wade is ranked 2nd on the card with his -290 Vegas line, but only ranks 8th on the card with his $8,600 price tag. This means that we are getting 6 positive ranks with Wade’s price tag of $8,600. I think he should be closer to $9,000 for his price, so there is definitely some value in his salary, and we want to expose this! Wade is the 2nd best value on the card when we look at it from a ranking perspective, with only Eryk Anders being of higher value. Perez will be a nice contrarian play if you’re looking for that angle.

PICK: Wade, Decision, Unanimous                                             

Cash Game: Wade (9/10): High odds of victory, and his game leads me to believe that has a high ceiling when it comes to scoring points.

GPP: Wade (8/10): A nice high ceiling, but he’ll be highly owned, so that reduces his GPP value slightly.

 

Fight #:

2

3 Rounds

Weight:

145

Shane Burgos

Vs.

Godofredo Pepey

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

9

0

Record

13

4

2

0

UFC Record

5

4

5

0

Record Last 5

4

1

$8,700

DK Salary

$7,500

-365

Vegas Odds

305

11%

% Fights to Dec

18%

-163

Inside The Distance Prop

375

 

Snapshot:

Shane Burgos has the best Vegas odds on the card with a -365 line, but similar to Wade, he is showing some serious value when you look at his betting line rank compared to his salary rank. Wade had a 6 rank advantage, making him the 2nd best value on the card, and Burgos isn’t too far off with his 5 rank value advantage. With a -365 line he should be in the low $9k range, and he is only priced at $8,700 right now, so I think we are getting $400-$500 of DK salary value here. Let’s take advantage of it!

Pepey is an ultra-aggressive striker who likes to push the pace early and often, but this often puts him dangerous situations, and susceptible to counter striking, something that Burgos does very well. But this MMA, and anything could happen, and I would be surprised if Pepey lands that lucky shot and ends this fight quickly. Do I think that happens, no, but he is a Live Dog, and based on his style, he could score very big with a quick finish.

Again, you cannot ignore the value that we are getting with Burgos having the 6th highest DK salary, but the best Vegas odds at -365. This should attract you to Burgos in all formats, but I wouldn’t completely punt Pepey in GPP’s as having some exposure to him will be good, knowing his style and ability to end fights quickly. Both of these guys have a low percentage of their fights go to decision (11% and 18% respectively). Burgos has a high striking output at 5.56 Strike Landed per Minute compared to Pepey’s at 2.09. Burgos definitely has some holes in his striking defense though, absorbing 5.26 Strikes per Minute compared to Pepey’s 2.34.  

My algorithm has Burgos as the highest ranked DK fighter on the card, and I think this is pretty accurate, so I’ll have a solid amount of exposure for many of these reasons mentioned in this write-up.

PICK: Burgos, TKO, 2nd                                                    

Cash Game: Burgos (9/10): I love the value we are getting here, as Burgos should have a much higher salary than he does.

GPP: Burgos (8.5/10): High ceiling, lots of value, the best Inside the DIstance prop on the card at -163, all lead me to having some heavy exposure to Burgos.

Pepey (5/10): A solid contrarian play here, as he will not be highly owned, and has the ability to end the fight inside the distance.

 

Fight #:

3

3 Rounds

Weight:

265

Timothy Johnson

Vs.

Junior Albini

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

11

3

Record

13

2

3

2

UFC Record

0

0

3

2

Record Last 5

5

2

$9,000

DK Salary

$7,200

-235

Vegas Odds

195

29%

% Fights to Dec

13%

162

Inside The Distance Prop

329

 

Snapshot:

The 3rd fight of the night is a Heavyweight contest that has 5 fight UFC veteran, Tim Johnson, battling UFC newcomer, Junior Albini. Before the DK scoring adjustment, you had to target pretty much every HW contest, as they often ended before the final bell, and allowed you to rack up some serious points. With the changes in the scoring system, it reduced the significance of the HW bouts, and with that, did not force us to look at rostering every HW favorite on each card.

Often times if you have a HW bout that is going to go the distance you typically have two big guys who gas out quickly, and do not have a very high offensive output, and I think that is exactly what we are getting with this matchup. A low offensive output HW decision is one that might break 70 points, and those aren’t the guys that we are necessarily looking to roster. I wouldn’t waste too much effort on this one.

PICK: Johnson, Decision, Unanimous                           

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: N/A

                                                           

Fight #:

4

3 Rounds

Weight:

135

Brian Kelleher

Vs.

Marlon Vera

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

17

7

Record

9

3

1

0

UFC Record

3

2

5

0

Record Last 5

3

2

$9,200

DK Salary

$7,000

-235

Vegas Odds

195

25%

% Fights to Dec

42%

145

Inside The Distance Prop

365

 

Snapshot:

The 4th fight of the night is a great matchup, and a fight I’m looking forward to watching. Kelleher made his recent UFC debut as an underdog, and secured a solid submission victory in the 1st round against Alcantara. Kelleher has been a tough regional fighter who has definitely earned his spot in the UFC. He is 30 years old, and knows that this is his last run at making a mark in the sport.

Kelleher has the highest salary on the card with a $9,200 salary, and this is mostly derived from the quick finish win he had in his UFC debut in his last bout, and I think he is overpriced at $9,200. His Vegas odds have him ranked as the 5th best betting odds on the card as a -235 favorite, but like I mentioned, he is ranked #1 when it comes to DK salary. I think there is too much hype here for Kelleher, and I will most likely be fading him come Saturday night. I have seen a good amount of Kelleher’s fight’s, and he is a solid regional competitor, but I don’t think he should be a $9,200 fighter when facing a talent like Vera.

There is definitely some nice value in rostering Vera. He is a solid striker who likes to keep the distance, and attack his foe’s from the outside with an array of kicks and punches. His $7,000 salary is the lowest on the card, raking 26th out of 26 fighters, but when the Vegas odds opened on this fight, it was closer to a pick ‘em, so then why should their pricing be so different? I think the hype around Kelleher is due to his impressive debut, but I don’t expect him to replicate this, and he’ll have a very game opponent in Vera. When comparing Vera’s odds ranking to his salary ranking (21st versus 26th), we are getting a 5 rank advantage with him, and that’s big enough that we can’t ignore it. I’ll be looking to use Vera to save some salary, as he is a Live Dog with some serious value on this card!

PICK: Vera, Sub, 2nd

Cash Game: Vera (7.5/10): Great opportunity to save some salary for your LU’s, and I like his chances of winning as well.

GPP: Vera (8.5/10): If the folks out there notice the value that is present here, then I think he’ll be highly owned, but I think the public will buy into the Kelleher hype, which is way too high!

Kelleher (6/10): Overpriced, but definitely does have a shot at winning this one and racking up some points, but he just costs too much for what you’re guaranteed to get out of him.

 

Fight #:

5

3 Rounds

Weight:

145

Kyle Bochniak

Vs.

Jeremy Kennedy

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

7

1

Record

10

0

1

1

UFC Record

2

0

4

1

Record Last 5

5

0

$7,100

DK Salary

$9,100

205

Vegas Odds

-245

50%

% Fights to Dec

50%

545

Inside The Distance Prop

293

 

Snapshot:

Fight #5 is an interesting matchup, and both guys have a pretty high finish prop, so not necessarily a fight I’ll be targeting, as I could see this being a low scoring affair. Kennedy brings a frenetic pace to his fights, and often finds a way to wear down his opponents, and have superior cardio, eventually breaking the will of his opponents in the later rounds.

Bochniak has really not been challenged by a fighter like Kennedy yet in his UFC career. Bochniak also has a questionable gas tank that often sees him slowing down as the fight carries on, and more susceptible to takedowns, and heavy ground and pound.

The real question becomes, can Kennedy score enough points to justify his 2nd highest price tag on the card at $9,100. The simple answer: no. I think Bochniak has a better chance at scoring enough points to justify his salary, but there is just too much risk involved in this fight on both ends, so I’ll be avoiding it for the most part.

PICK: Kennedy, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: Bochniak (4/10): a chance to save some salary, and he has a slight chance of pulling out the victory. Avoid for the most part though.

 

Fight #:

6

3 Rounds

Weight:

241

Damian Grabowski

Vs.

Chase Sherman

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

20

4

Record

10

3

2

0

UFC Record

1

2

2

3

Record Last 5

3

2

$7,300

DK Salary

$8,900

205

Vegas Odds

-245

17%

% Fights to Dec

8%

339

Inside The Distance Prop

-147

 

Snapshot:

Here is another Heavyweight contest between 27 year old Chase Sherman, as he takes on the 37 year old Damian Grabowski. Sherman has proven to have an awesome chin, walking through punches in order to land his own strikes, whereas Grabowski is a wrestler who wants to get the fight to the ground ASAP.

This is an interesting matchup, and Sherman brings in the 2nd best Inside the Distance prop of -147. The other thing that I like about Sherman is the fact that he is a Heavyweight, but he throws some serious volume of punches - many more than the average HW fighter in the UFC. Sherman’s youth, athleticism, and penchant for throwing a lot of punches, will either lead to a quick KO for him, or a decision victory that has him landing a high volume of strikes, allowing him to rack up serious DK points. I like Sherman a lot in this position, but I think the rest of the DFS MMA world will also see his value, so keep that in the back of your mind when formulating your lineups.

PICK: Sherman, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game: Sherman (8.5/10): I think he has a high ceiling, high likelihood of victory, and has a pretty high floor as well.

GPP: Sherman (8/10): What I said above, but he will be highly owned, so keep that in mind for your GPP LU’s.

 

Fight #:

7

3 Rounds

Weight:

170

Ryan LaFlare

Vs.

Alex Oliveira

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

13

1

Record

16

4

6

1

UFC Record

6

2

4

1

Record Last 5

4

1

$8,200

DK Salary

$8,000

-190

Vegas Odds

165

50%

% Fights to Dec

20%

349

Inside The Distance Prop

365

 

Snapshot:

Here’s a perfect example of why you should not release salaries before Vegas odds are released. I think there is some value here in LaFlare, as he is almost a 2 to 1 favorite, and is only priced at $8,200! Oliveira is a big Welterweight, and has a more varied skill set, and can end the fight in more ways than LaFlare can. 

I do think that this will be a grapple heavy contest, and with that comes an advantage for LaFlare. This fight will go one of two ways: 1) LaFlare will get a takedown, and Oliveira will eventually work to get back up to his feet, only to be taken down again, or (2) LaFlare gets a takedown, and has heavy top position that does not allow Oliveira to get back to his feet. In scenario 1 you would see LaFlare score a serious amount of points, but in scenario 2 it would be a boring, stalled fight on the ground, and neither fighter would score much from a DK perspective.

I could see it going either way, so there is some serious risk in taking either fighter here, but if there was a gun held to my head, I’d take LaFlare, and hope that Oliveira can continue to get back to his feet just to get taken down again by LaFlare. Only time will tell. LaFlare is a great opportunity to save some cap space though, and have a very good chance of winning the fight outright. I have LaFlare as getting a 3 position rank advantage based on his salary and odds of winning.

PICK: LaFlare, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: LaFlare (6/10): Too many question marks, but we like the salary here when comparing his Vegas odds of winning.

GPP: N/A: I’ll avoid both in GPP, as both of their Inside the Distance props are too high for my liking, especially with how their styles play out.

 

Fight #:

8

3 Rounds

Weight:

185

Rafael Natal

Vs.

Eryk Anders

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

21

8

Record

7

0

9

6

UFC Record

0

0

3

2

Record Last 5

5

0

$8,800

DK Salary

$7,400

105

Vegas Odds

-125

41%

% Fights to Dec

29%

245

Inside The Distance Prop

160

 

Snapshot:

I am really excited about this matchup. Eryk Anders is a former college football standout who was signed by the Cleveland Browns, but has now focused his attention to the martial arts. He was the Legacy Fighting Middleweight Champion, defending the title once in a 5 round affair that proved he has a pretty impressive gas tank. Anders throws with some serious power, but shows a fight game that is patient at times, and explosive when he needs to be. His athleticism is impressive, but he hasn’t been fighting for very long, and only holds a 7-0 record. He’s taking on Rafael Natal who has been fighting professionally for 12 years, and Anders has not fought anyone yet with a resume even close to Natal.

Natal was KO’ed by Tim Boetsch in his last bout back in November, and lost a Decision to Robert Whittaker before that. Natal has a solid kickboxing game, and is a BJJ Black Belt, so if he can get this fight to the ground, then he has a very good shot at winning this one.

Anders has the best rank value on the card, as he has a salary rank ($7,400) of 22nd out of 26 fighters, but has a Vegas odds rank of 13th out of 26 fighters. That is a value rank advantage of 9, which is by far and away the biggest on the card! I really like this value. It is a little concerning that he fought a 5 round fight 2 weeks ago, so the question becomes, is he still worn down from that contest? I think his cardio will still be there, and I think his hands in combination with Natal’s questionable chin give Anders a very good chance of ending this one quickly with a KO in the 1st round. The downside to this one is that Anders will probably be the highest owned fighter on the card, as there is plenty of value in his line value with a lot of upside to his scoring from a DK scoring perspective.

PICK: Anders, KO, 1st

Cash Game: Anders (9/10): Anders has serious value, and I like his low salary combined with his athleticism and heavy hands.

GPP: Anders (8.5/10): Will be highly owned, which reduces his GPP value a bit. I will have some exposure to him though, as he quite possibly could be the highest scorer on the card. There is risk here though, as he is still a very young fighter.

 

Fight #:

9

3 Rounds

Weight:

170

Lyman Good

Vs.

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

19

3

Record

16

5

1

0

UFC Record

2

1

5

0

Record Last 5

4

1

$8,500

DK Salary

$7,700

-200

Vegas Odds

170

45%

% Fights to Dec

24%

254

Inside The Distance Prop

387

 

Snapshot:

The last prelim fight is an interesting one, as Lyman Good hasn’t fought in over two years due to some misteps as it pertains to PED use. This is a fight with a lot of question marks surrounding both fighters, and not one that I’ll be targeting for my LU’s very much. In order for Good’s salary to pay off, he’ll most likely have to go out and end this one quickly and viciously, and I just don’t have the faith and confidence in that happening.

With such a lengthy layoff for Good, I don’t know what to expect out of him. I will most likely watch the weigh-ins, and staredown between these two before making a final decision on if I’ll have some exposure to either fighter on this one. Make sure to follow me on Twitter @TJ_Scott_MMA for my latest thoughts on this one as the fight gets closer.

PICK: Good, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game: ??? - Check back

GPP: ??? - Check back   

 

Main Card

 

Fight #:

10

3 Rounds

Weight:

135

Jimmie Rivera

Vs.

Thomas Almeida

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

20

1

Record

21

1

4

0

UFC Record

5

1

5

0

Record Last 5

4

1

$8,300

DK Salary

$7,900

-190

Vegas Odds

165

71%

% Fights to Dec

5%

162

Inside The Distance Prop

329

 

Snapshot:

This fight could easily be the co-main event of the card, as Jimmie Rivera has a very high Fight IQ, and knows how to expose his opponents weaknesses, most often using his incredibly effective boxing to outpoint most of his foes. Almeida is a slow starter, and this is most likely where Rivera will look to be aggressive, and hurt Almeida within the first two minutes of the first round.

Rivera also has some solid wrestling, and can most likely rack up some points through takedowns. Don’t sleep on Almeida though, and I’d recommend that you have some exposure to both of these guys in GPP’s. I do see some serious value in Rivera’s salary though, as his betting odds continue to grow, and he is now over a 2 to 1 favorite, and only will cost you $8,300 to roster him!

This is the best fight on the card, and I will have plenty of exposure to Rivera in both formats, as I think we are getting great value for his price on DraftKings, and overall, he is the better fighter. Rivera’s Fight IQ is much higher than Almeida’s, and I think that will play a big factor on how this fight turns out. I may have a little exposure on Almeida in some GPP’s just because I think Rivera will be very highly owned, so take that into account when formulating your LU’s.

PICK: Rivera, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game: Rivera (8.5/10): I like his odds of winning, and he has some serious value that continues to grow as the line grows in his favor. He also has a pretty high ceiling based on his fighting style, so worth rostering in all formats.

GPP: Rivera (8/10): High ceiling, and awesome Fight IQ, but he will be highly owned, so it reduces his value slightly in GPP formats.                

Almeida (5.5/10): Since Rivera will be so highly owned, I think it make sense to have Almeida in a contrarian LU or two.

 

Fight #:

11

3 Rounds

Weight:

205

Patrick Cummins

Vs.

Gian Villante

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

9

4

Record

15

8

5

4

UFC Record

5

5

2

3

Record Last 5

2

3

$8,100

DK Salary

$8,100

140

Vegas Odds

-160

23%

% Fights to Dec

30%

302

Inside The Distance Prop

165

 

Snapshot: 

This LightHeavyWeight bout is a tough one to call, as both of these guys have flaws in their games that have been exposed in the past, and resulted in losses at the highest level of the sport. Cummins has a very porous striking defense, as he takes many blows, and has been KO’ed multiple times. His striking is very rigid, and nothing to write  home about, but his wrestling is very good, and if he can’t get Villante to the ground, he can then grind him into dust through heavy top control, and ground and pound.

Villante also doesn’t have the most spectacular striking game, but I do think that he has more weapons and power on the feet to threaten Cummins with a stoppage than what Cummins possesses. If Villante can keep this fight on the feet, then I think he’ll win by TKO stoppage within the first 2 rounds. That is a big IF though, and I am not completely confident that Villante will be able to stuff Cummins’ takedown attempts, but I do think his upside is higher than Cummins, so I’ll have more exposure to Villante, but I’ll be holding my breath throughout this fight, as it really could go either way. You’re getting some value in Villante based on the current odds, but that value could easily be sapped from him if Villante cannot prevent Cummins from taking him down and grinding him out.

PICK: Villante, TKO, 1st

Cash Game: Villante (6.5/10): Not incredibly confident in the odds of victory here, but I do think Villante pulls it out.

GPP: Villante (7/10): If he does win, it will most likely be early with a lot of DK points behind it, but not 100% confident in victory here.

Cummins (5/10): I may have a little exposure to Cummins, as he’ll be very lightly owned, and will be a nice contrarian play.

 

Fight #:

12

3 Rounds

Weight:

145

Dennis Bermudez

Vs.

Darren Elkins

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

16

6

Record

22

5

9

4

UFC Record

12

4

2

3

Record Last 5

4

1

$8,700

DK Salary

$7,500

-200

Vegas Odds

170

41%

% Fights to Dec

48%

395

Inside The Distance Prop

400

 

Snapshot:

The 2nd to last fight of the night is another great matchup, and will be a very entertaining fight to watch as the card winds down. Darren Elkins has proven to be a very “blue-collar” fighter that has the potential to make this a war, and Elkins needs a war in order to win this one. Elkins needs to wrestle, and wear down Bermudez in order to have any chance at victory. In his efforts for victory, Elkins will take damage, and this will give Bermudez a chance at victory, but if Elkins weathers the storm, and ends up frustrating Bermudez with his toughness, then this could be a very close decision.

I think that Bermudez is a better fighter in almost every facet of the game, but Elkins has that gritty toughness that is difficult to quantify when handicapping a fight. I think that Elkins’ run of underdog victories will come to end here though, as Bermudez will be well aware of not falling into Elkins’ style of fight, and will want to keep this one standing at a distance, picking apart Elkins with kicks and punches. If Elkins can get this one against the cage, then he could make this his war, and in the end, the judges love when a fighter presses the action, and lands strikes, even if they are shorter shots.

I think the public will be on Elkins due to his low salary, ability to weather a serious storm, and just outwork his opponents over the course of 3 rounds. Because of this popularity, I will be fading Elkins, and have my money behind Bermudez.

PICK: Bermudez, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Bermudez (7/10): I like his odds of victory, although, anything can happen in an Elkins fight, but I think he’ll have a high ceiling, as Elkins takes a lot of damage.

GPP: Bermudez (7/10): High Ceiling, and I’m hoping for low ownership, as I think many people will be on Elkins.

                                                           

Fight #:

13

5 Rounds

Weight:

185

Chris Weidman

Vs.

Kelvin Gastelum

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

13

3

Record

13

2

9

3

UFC Record

8

2

2

3

Record Last 5

3

2

$7,800

DK Salary

$8,400

140

Vegas Odds

-160

25%

% Fights to Dec

40%

297

Inside The Distance Prop

133

 

Snapshot:

And here we go! The main event of the evening! I love this matchup of two solid wrestlers who can also strike. Weidman will be fighting in front of his hometown crowd, and will have motivation to makeup for his last loss in the state of New York. Weidman has had some cardio problems in his last few fights, and this could prove to be a big issue for him in this fight, as Kelvin Gastelum brings some serious pressure to his fights, and has not shown any cardio issues like Weidman has.

Weidman will have a pretty big size advantage, but as the fight goes on, Gastelum will prove to have the advantage. He has heavy hands, very good wrestling, and great cardio. With that, I think the public will be on Gastelum, so you may want to have some exposure to Weidman as well. I think that Gastelum will be the stronger, better fighter, and the fact that this is a 5 round fight, Gastelum’s advantage is widened even more.

PICK: Gastelum, TKO, 4th

Cash Game: Gastelum (7.5/10): With 5 rounds to rack up points, he’ll have a very high ceiling, his odds of victory are also very nice here.            

GPP: Gastelum (8/10): I love the main eventers due to the longer duration of the fight, and the ability to rack up more DK points! He most likely will be highly owned though, so keep that in mind when putting together your rosters.

Weidman (6.5/10): I think his low ownership is his best trait in GPP’s, but he will have his hands full with Gastelum, so odds of victory aren’t great.

 

Optimal Lineups

 

Cash 1

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Eryk Anders

$7,400

2

Kelvin Gastelum

$8,400

3

Chris Wade

$8,600

4

Jimmie Rivera

$8,300

5

Chase Sherman

$8,900

6

Gian Villante

$8,100

 

Cash 2

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Eryk Anders

$7,400

2

Kelvin Gastelum

$8,400

3

Jimmie Rivera

$8,300

4

Chase Sherman

$8,900

5

Dennis Bermudez

$8,700

6

Ryan LaFlare

$8,200

                                               

GPP 1

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Eryk Anders

$7,400

2

Kelvin Gastelum

$8,400

3

Dennis Bermudez

$8,700

4

Jimmie Rivera

$8,300

5

Gian Villante

$8,100

6

Shane Burgos

$8,700

 

GPP 2

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Shane Burgos

$8,700

2

Jimmie Rivera

$8,300

3

Marlon Vera

$7,000

4

Chase Sherman

$8,900

5

Kelvin Gastelum

$8,400

6

Chris Wade

$8,600