DFS NASCAR: Toyota Owners 400 Track Breakdown

Anyone dizzy from the Bristol race last week? Between weather delays and no qualifying and 500 laps around the .533-mile track it was a whirlwind weekend. It’s back to short track racing once more this week as the NASCAR haulers head just up I-81 and I-64 to Richmond International Raceway for the Toyota Owners 400 on Sunday. This will be the last of the “short” tracks until just before the Chase gets underway. The .75-mile D-shaped track has turns banked at 14 degrees, putting it between Martinsville and Bristol. Richmond also allows more racing grooves than are typically present at either of the other two short tracks on the schedule. It’s still key to keep in mind those drivers who typically fare better on the tighter surfaces, as well as practice results. One driver has led at least 140 laps each spring race dating back to 2011, including three times where better than 200 laps were led by a single driver. Figuring out with driver will dominate can be critical to lineup success in short track formats.

Track Data

Top-15 at Richmond historically

Top-15 at Short Tracks since Feb. 2015

Drivers to watch this week:

Kyle Busch: It’s been kind of a down year for Kyle so far in 2017 with just three top-10s to his credit in eight races and crashing out a few times after showing promise. Now he heads to a track that he has a great history at in Richmond, having won the spring race four straight years between 2009-2012. Since the start of 2015, he has the highest average finish in the field at 4.33 with two top-fives and a low finish of 11^th. He will want to try and make up for the recent spate of crashes and mechanical issues.

Denny Hamlin: It’s back to Denny’s home track this week. He has a win and three top-10s in the last four races to go with a third-best tally of 204 laps led. Over the course of his 21 races at RIR, he has three wins, eight top-fives, and the most laps led at 1,594. His 10.1 average finish over that span is second only to the man above him in this article. Denny showed the capability and speed to win last week, just couldn’t quite get all the way up front. I expect him to be in the same position this week.

Matt Kenseth: Kenseth is one of those guys who just sneak around the track and sure enough he is up near the front come the end of the race. The same can be said for him at Richmond. He has a win and three top-10s in the last four races with the most laps led at 357. Kenseth also has the second highest Loop Rating at 112.6 in that span too.  He can be a solid value play depending on where he starts on Sunday.

Clint Bowyer: Bowyer was a late edition to my cash lineup last week and he paid dividends with the second place finish at Bristol. He offers the same type upside this week with a +10.3 positional differential over the last four races including two top-10 finishes. He does have two wins under his belt here in 22 races with 12 total top-10s. He is priced just a tad more than last week but if he shows the same speed at RIR, he should be more than worth the value.

Dale Earnhart Jr.: Jr. made the news of the week with the announcement of his pending retirement after the conclusion of the 2017. Now that that is off his shoulders maybe his season will turn back around at a place that he has been quite successful at previously. He owns the best positional differential in the field this week at +13 with a top-five and three top-20s in the last three races.  All told Jr. has three wins and 14 top-10s in 34 career races at the Virginia track. $8,300 is a bit tough to work into a cash lineup given his season, but GPP is on the horizon.