For the final race before the break in the schedule for Easter weekend next weekend, NASCAR heads to Texas Motor Speedway for the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500. This will be the first race on a 1.5-mile track since Vegas nearly a month ago and it will be the only one longer than a mile this month. Texas recently saw a repave that changed the layout of the track a bit, which I will delve into further in the playbook article, however it’s important to note that repaves often times changed the grooves of track for a couple of years.
Track Breakdown
| Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Avg. | Difference | Laps Led | Laps Led | ||||||||
| Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
| Jimmie Johnson | 10.8 | 4.25 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 134 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 114.2 | 6.55 | 33.5 | 8.38 |
| Kyle Busch | 14 | 3.33 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 109.1 | 10.67 | 9.25 | 3.08 |
| Joey Logano | 3.5 | 12.25 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 197 | 0 | 2 | 40 | 0 | 100.3 | -8.75 | 49.25 | 12.31 |
| Kevin Harvick | 7.3 | 5.25 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 108 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 114.6 | 2.05 | 27 | 6.75 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 17 | 3.67 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 107.2 | 13.33 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Brad Keselowski | 4 | 9.75 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 339 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 107.4 | -5.75 | 84.75 | 21.19 |
| Chase Elliott | 7.5 | 4.5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 100.8 | 3 | 1 | 0.50 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 13.3 | 6.5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 208 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 117.7 | 6.8 | 52 | 13.00 |
| Kasey Kahne | 17 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 0 | 90.5 | 6 | 1.5 | 0.38 |
| Kurt Busch | 9.8 | 12.5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 45 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 0 | 89.9 | -2.7 | 11.25 | 2.81 |
| Jamie McMurray | 17.5 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 84.8 | 5.5 | 2.25 | 0.56 |
| Matt Kenseth | 11 | 13.67 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 0 | 96.8 | -2.67 | 5 | 1.67 |
| Denny Hamlin | 12.5 | 17.5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 0 | 76.3 | -5 | 0.25 | 0.06 |
| Ryan Newman | 15.8 | 15.25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 22 | 0 | 77.4 | 0.55 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Trevor Bayne | 22.5 | 25.5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 15 | 39 | 0 | 58.5 | -3 | 3 | 0.75 |
| Austin Dillon | 12.8 | 21.75 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 37 | 1 | 79.9 | -8.95 | 1.5 | 0.38 |
| David Ragan | 28 | 25.5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 33 | 0 | 54.6 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.13 |
| Paul Menard | 14.8 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 41 | 1 | 66.8 | -12.2 | 0.25 | 0.06 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 36.3 | 34.33 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 34 | 35 | 0 | 32.4 | 1.97 | 0.25 | 0.08 |
| J.J. Yeley | 37.5 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 33 | 43 | 1 | 34.3 | -0.5 | 0.25 | 0.13 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 18.8 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 21 | 0 | 73.2 | 1.8 | 0 | 0.00 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | 23.3 | 19.25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 22 | 0 | 65.9 | 4.05 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Danica Patrick | 20 | 19.25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 | 0 | 64.3 | 0.75 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Aric Almirola | 25.3 | 20.75 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 24 | 0 | 62.6 | 4.55 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Kyle Larson | 9.8 | 22.75 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 37 | 1 | 83.9 | -12.95 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Erik Jones | 6 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 92.4 | -6 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ty Dillon | 30 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 56.7 | 10 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Clint Bowyer | 26 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 38 | 1 | 56.2 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ryan Blaney | 13.3 | 31.5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 43 | 2 | 58.1 | -18.2 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Chris Buescher | 34.7 | 26.33 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 30 | 0 | 46 | 8.37 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Landon Cassill | 34 | 27.75 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 32 | 0 | 46.1 | 6.25 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Michael McDowell | 33.3 | 29.33 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 34 | 0 | 43.6 | 3.97 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Cole Whitt | 35.7 | 30.67 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 35 | 0 | 38.8 | 5.03 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | 35.5 | 34.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 35 | 0 | 30.4 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Reed Sorenson | 39 | 35.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 36 | 0 | 29.5 | 3.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Suarez | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Gray Gaulding | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Timmy Hill | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Derrike Cope | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Corey LaJoie | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Top Drivers Historically at Texas
| Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Difference | Laps Led | Laps Led | ||||||||
| Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
| Jimmie Johnson | 8.9 | 8.37 | 27 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 24 | 1,023 | 1 | 1 | 38 | 1 | 124.5 | 255.75 | 9.47 |
| Matt Kenseth | 14.9 | 9.43 | 28 | 2 | 13 | 18 | 25 | 854 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 | 99.7 | 213.5 | 7.63 |
| Kyle Busch | 14.4 | 11.59 | 22 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 18 | 741 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 0 | 64.8 | 185.25 | 8.42 |
| Denny Hamlin | 15.7 | 12 | 22 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 20 | 155 | 0 | 1 | 38 | 0 | 93.8 | 38.75 | 1.76 |
| Joey Logano | 13.1 | 16.59 | 17 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 337 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 1 | 108.8 | 84.25 | 4.96 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 12.2 | 13.43 | 28 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 22 | 448 | 2 | 1 | 43 | 3 | 91.9 | 112 | 4.00 |
| Kasey Kahne | 13.6 | 17.4 | 25 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 224 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 4 | 70.6 | 56 | 2.24 |
| Kurt Busch | 14.8 | 15.46 | 28 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 20 | 295 | 1 | 1 | 41 | 2 | 104.7 | 73.75 | 2.63 |
| Ryan Newman | 16.1 | 18.37 | 27 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 99 | 2 | 1 | 40 | 3 | 91.9 | 24.75 | 0.92 |
| Kevin Harvick | 17.9 | 12 | 28 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 24 | 116 | 0 | 2 | 42 | 1 | 109.5 | 29 | 1.04 |
| Jamie McMurray | 22.6 | 16.85 | 26 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 79 | 0 | 2 | 38 | 1 | 91.6 | 19.75 | 0.76 |
| Brad Keselowski | 17.5 | 16.24 | 17 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 585 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 0 | 80.8 | 146.25 | 8.60 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 15.5 | 13.83 | 23 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 439 | 2 | 2 | 38 | 3 | 81.5 | 109.75 | 4.77 |
| Clint Bowyer | 17.4 | 15.45 | 22 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 16 | 85 | 0 | 2 | 38 | 2 | 72 | 21.25 | 0.97 |
| Chase Elliott | 7.5 | 4.5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 99.3 | 1 | 0.50 |
Top Drivers at 1.5-mile Tracks
| Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Difference | Laps Led | Laps Led | |||||||||
| Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
| Jimmie Johnson | 13.7 | 12.58 | 26 | 7 | 12 | 14 | 21 | 718 | 0 | 1 | 41 | 2 | 102.5 | 1.12 | 179.5 | 6.90 |
| Kyle Busch | 9.9 | 8.68 | 22 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 20 | 502 | 0 | 1 | 33 | 1 | 106.6 | 1.22 | 125.5 | 5.70 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 8 | 8.88 | 26 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 25 | 1333 | 2 | 1 | 36 | 1 | 112.4 | -0.88 | 333.25 | 12.82 |
| Brad Keselowski | 5.7 | 8.92 | 26 | 3 | 10 | 22 | 24 | 1035 | 4 | 1 | 38 | 2 | 107.4 | -3.22 | 258.75 | 9.95 |
| Joey Logano | 5.8 | 9.96 | 26 | 2 | 16 | 20 | 22 | 863 | 2 | 1 | 40 | 2 | 107.2 | -4.16 | 215.75 | 8.30 |
| Kevin Harvick | 7.5 | 9.5 | 26 | 2 | 13 | 21 | 23 | 1497 | 3 | 1 | 42 | 2 | 115.3 | -2 | 374.25 | 14.39 |
| Denny Hamlin | 9.2 | 14.77 | 26 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 20 | 225 | 1 | 1 | 41 | 4 | 92.2 | -5.57 | 56.25 | 2.16 |
| Matt Kenseth | 11.4 | 11.16 | 25 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 21 | 477 | 3 | 2 | 42 | 2 | 99 | 0.24 | 119.25 | 4.77 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 15.7 | 12.6 | 20 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 40 | 0 | 90.7 | 3.1 | 1.25 | 0.06 |
| Kyle Larson | 15 | 17.73 | 26 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 197 | 0 | 2 | 37 | 2 | 87.7 | -2.73 | 49.25 | 1.89 |
| Kurt Busch | 9.9 | 10.42 | 24 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 22 | 331 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 1 | 95.3 | -0.52 | 82.75 | 3.45 |
| Chase Elliott | 12.8 | 16.13 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 186 | 0 | 3 | 41 | 3 | 93.9 | -3.33 | 46.5 | 2.91 |
| Ryan Newman | 13 | 13.31 | 26 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 29 | 0 | 3 | 35 | 1 | 84.6 | -0.31 | 7.25 | 0.28 |
| Kasey Kahne | 17.2 | 15.31 | 26 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 43 | 2 | 80.2 | 1.89 | 2 | 0.08 |
| Ryan Blaney | 14.4 | 20.86 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 43 | 3 | 74.3 | -6.46 | 3.25 | 0.15 |
Drivers to watch this week:
Jimmie Johnson: Yes here he is again as one to watch this week, but it’s pretty much impossible to exclude him. He has two wins in the last four races here, five in the last nine, and six overall. He also has the third most laps led with 134, and 1,023 all-time. The six-time Series champ will be anxious to get his number-48 ride on the new pavement and try to land in the top-10 for just the second time this season.
Kyle Busch: Kyle is the only other active driver to post a win here in the last two years in addition to having second best positional differential in the field this year. Overall he has 11 top-
five finishes in 22 races at Texas in his career. Kyle is fresh off a second place finish in Martinsville and has been very fast at the 1.5-mile tracks this season but doesn’t have anything to show for it just yet.
Chase Elliott: Elliott has raced here just twice in the Monster Energy Cup Series but both finishes have been in the top-five. He also notched a win here at the Xfinity Sereis level a couple of years ago. Aside from the top-five finishes however there isn’t much else there with just four laps led and a +3.0 positional differential mark.
Brad Keselowski: Brad is the laps leader in the field over the past three races with 339 laps led, with 312 of those coming in the November 2015 race. He has two top-fives and a pole to his credit at TMS over that span. Over the course of 17 career races here, he has four top-fives so he has been better recently. Brad won last week at Martinsville making this an adjustment in distance.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Jr. has gotten off to a rough start this season and hasn’t really been a factor to this point. However Texas is a different story. He owns the largest positive positional differential in the field at +13.33 over the last four races and hasn’t finished worse than sixth in that span. That’s just the showing to be looking for from him to jump start his season and his DFS value on Sunday.