Well folks, there are just three races left in the NASCAR season and this Sunday brings the high-speed action to Texas Motor Speedway for the AAA Texas 500. TMS is a sister track of Michigan and Auto Club in it’s shape and design and allows for quite a bit of speed to be carried through the laps. With it being a 1.5-mile track, laps led dominators can be tricky as the laps are typically well spread out. Positional differential is also key here with just six drivers with a history of +6 in the category over the past three years.
Texas Motor Speedway Track Breakdown
| Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Avg. | Diff | Laps Led | Laps Led | ||||||||
| Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
| Jimmie Johnson | 8.6 | 6.4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 325 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 112.9 | 2.2 | 81.25 | 16.25 |
| Kyle Busch | 14 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 45 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 108.9 | 11 | 11.25 | 2.81 |
| Joey Logano | 6.4 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 127 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 0 | 99.3 | -5.6 | 31.75 | 6.35 |
| Kevin Harvick | 6.8 | 11.8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 111 | 0 | 2 | 42 | 1 | 102.2 | -5 | 27.75 | 5.55 |
| Brad Keselowski | 8 | 8.6 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 446 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 112 | -0.6 | 111.5 | 22.30 |
| Carl Edwards | 9.2 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 124 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 97.9 | 0.2 | 31 | 6.20 |
| Jamie McMurray | 18.2 | 10.2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 88.9 | 8 | 2.25 | 0.45 |
| Kyle Larson | 13 | 17.6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 37 | 1 | 86.4 | -4.6 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Chase Elliott | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 94.9 | -1 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 13.4 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 142 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 100.5 | 1.4 | 35.5 | 7.10 |
| Kurt Busch | 8.8 | 15.4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 60 | 1 | 7 | 39 | 1 | 90.5 | -6.6 | 15 | 3.00 |
| Kasey Kahne | 16.6 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 38 | 1 | 90.2 | -0.4 | 1.5 | 0.30 |
| Denny Hamlin | 11.8 | 16.8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 10 | 38 | 0 | 81.6 | -5 | 5.75 | 1.15 |
| Greg Biffle | 13.6 | 18.8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 39 | 1 | 76.9 | -5.2 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Paul Menard | 16.2 | 21.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 41 | 1 | 75.6 | -5 | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| Matt Kenseth | 13.3 | 16.5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 79 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 0 | 94.6 | -3.2 | 19.75 | 4.94 |
| Tony Stewart | 10 | 21.75 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 74 | 1 | 10 | 42 | 1 | 73.8 | -11.75 | 18.5 | 4.63 |
| Clint Bowyer | 25.2 | 22.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 38 | 1 | 69.4 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| Ryan Newman | 12 | 16.4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 22 | 0 | 84 | -4.4 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Trevor Bayne | 19.2 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 15 | 39 | 1 | 63.1 | -6.8 | 3 | 0.60 |
| Austin Dillon | 19.8 | 18.4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 21 | 0 | 73.7 | 1.4 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Aric Almirola | 23.8 | 19.4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 24 | 0 | 65.4 | 4.4 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.8 | 20.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 26 | 0 | 67.8 | 0.6 | 0 | 0.00 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | 27 | 19.4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 23 | 0 | 64.8 | 7.6 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Danica Patrick | 21.8 | 23.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 36 | 0 | 59.6 | -1.4 | 0 | 0.00 |
| David Ragan | 31.2 | 27.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 35 | 0 | 50.7 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| Brian Scott | 24 | 20.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 27 | 0 | 65.2 | 3.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Casey Mears | 25.6 | 24.4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 28 | 0 | 58.5 | 1.2 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Justin Allgaier | 29.8 | 27.75 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 39 | 1 | 54.3 | 2.05 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Reed Sorenson | 36.7 | 34 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 33 | 36 | 0 | 37.5 | 2.7 | 0.25 | 0.08 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 36.3 | 34.33 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 34 | 35 | 0 | 32.4 | 1.97 | 0.25 | 0.08 |
| Ryan Blaney | 15 | 38 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 43 | 2 | 47.5 | -23 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Regan Smith | 28 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 45.8 | -3 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Michael McDowell | 32 | 31.25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 34 | 0 | 45 | 0.75 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Michael Annett | 32 | 30.8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 40 | 1 | 44.1 | 1.2 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Landon Cassill | 35.2 | 31.8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 43 | 1 | 43.1 | 3.4 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Chris Buescher | 37 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 30 | 0 | 40.8 | 8 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Cole Whitt | 37.8 | 29.8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 35 | 0 | 40.3 | 8 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Alex Bowman | 32.5 | 37 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 42 | 2 | 38.6 | -4.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Josh Wise | 37.8 | 38.75 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 41 | 1 | 31.4 | -0.95 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Joey Gase | 43 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 37 | 0 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 0.00 |
Key Drivers on 1.5 Mile Tracks
| Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Diff | Laps Led | Laps Led | |||||||||
| Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
| Jimmie Johnson | 13.7 | 12.41 | 34 | 8 | 15 | 21 | 27 | 1,115 | 1 | 1 | 41 | 2 | 102.9 | 1.29 | 278.75 | 8.20 |
| Kevin Harvick | 7 | 9.59 | 34 | 5 | 19 | 26 | 30 | 2,160 | 5 | 1 | 42 | 2 | 117.6 | -2.59 | 540 | 15.88 |
| Brad Keselowski | 6.8 | 9.76 | 34 | 5 | 13 | 26 | 31 | 1,419 | 4 | 1 | 39 | 2 | 107.5 | -2.96 | 354.75 | 10.43 |
| Joey Logano | 6.7 | 10.56 | 34 | 4 | 19 | 23 | 29 | 1,085 | 3 | 1 | 40 | 3 | 106.9 | -3.86 | 271.25 | 7.98 |
| Kyle Busch | 10.4 | 8.73 | 30 | 4 | 14 | 21 | 28 | 681 | 1 | 1 | 39 | 1 | 104.8 | 1.67 | 170.25 | 5.68 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 10.9 | 11.71 | 34 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 30 | 1,117 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 0 | 100.6 | -0.81 | 279.25 | 8.21 |
| Carl Edwards | 10.1 | 10.91 | 34 | 2 | 12 | 19 | 32 | 274 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 0 | 93.1 | -0.81 | 68.5 | 2.01 |
| Denny Hamlin | 10.9 | 14.41 | 34 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 27 | 360 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 4 | 92.4 | -3.51 | 90 | 2.65 |
| Kasey Kahne | 16.3 | 15.12 | 34 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 26 | 80 | 0 | 1 | 43 | 3 | 84.6 | 1.18 | 20 | 0.59 |
| Matt Kenseth | 13.6 | 11.09 | 33 | 0 | 10 | 23 | 28 | 637 | 4 | 2 | 42 | 2 | 99 | 2.51 | 159.25 | 4.83 |
| Ryan Newman | 12.7 | 10.97 | 34 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 32 | 33 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 89 | 1.73 | 8.25 | 0.24 |
| Kyle Larson | 15.6 | 17.09 | 34 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 22 | 83 | 0 | 2 | 40 | 3 | 86 | -1.49 | 20.75 | 0.61 |
| Kurt Busch | 10.9 | 14.06 | 32 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 25 | 371 | 3 | 3 | 42 | 5 | 90.5 | -3.16 | 92.75 | 2.90 |
| Jamie McMurray | 16.1 | 16.21 | 34 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 107 | 0 | 3 | 40 | 2 | 81.4 | -0.11 | 26.75 | 0.79 |
| Chase Elliott | 13.8 | 19.58 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 183 | 0 | 3 | 41 | 3 | 89.1 | -5.78 | 45.75 | 3.81 |
Drivers to watch this week:
Jimmie Johnson: Johnson has been the guy to beat every time at Texas and he hasn’t lost often. He has three wins in the last five races with four top-fives and the second most laps led with 325. J.J. has already clinched a spot in the Championship by virtue of his win last week, but that doesn’t mean he can’t win here, yet again. He has to be the favorite with his history here and the other five wins at this distance in the last three years.
Kyle Busch: Kyle owns the best average finish in the field in the last three years, which is four races for him given he missed the spring race a year ago, at third with a low finish of fourth. There aren’t a lot of laps led here but the consistency of finishes is too hard to overlook heading into a week he wants a win, to try and go back-to-back for Championships.
Joey Logano: Joey has been another very good driver at Texas in recent memory with a win and three top-fives. A 40th place finish on his record weighs down the average finish and negative positional differential. Logano has the fourth most laps led to his credit with 127 in the front of the pack.
Carl Edwards: If Kyle Busch is the most consistent, Edwards isn’t far behind with a top-five and four top-10s. He has a low finish of 14th in the last five races and a high of fifth. He is also the fifth driver in laps led with 124 just behind Logano’s 124. Edwards will need a very strong couple of finishes to make up the 32 points between he and fourth place currently, if he wants to make the final race.
Jamie McMurray: McMurray has been sneaky good at Texas recently with five top-17 finishes and one top-five. He also has one of the +6 positional differentials I mentioned earlier with a +8 mark in the category. At $8,100 this week, it’s tough to turn down his consistency for that price.