Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400
Chicagoland Speedway
Denny Hamlin put on a show last week in the last race before the Chase at Richmond International Raceway, pulling off the win at his home track. There was also drama after the race as Ryan Newman took out his frustrations regarding Tony Stewart and him wrecking him out of the race. The Chase for the Sprint Cup field is now set and ready to move on to the last 10 races of the season starting this week.
Chicagoland has not been raced at this year to this point, which makes it an interesting track to pick. On one hand it’s a 1.5-mile fairly standard circuit, however on the other, it’s a new track to some of the drivers and the whole field as they try and lock up a spot for the next round. 18 degree banking in the turns with 11 on the frontstretch and five on the back makes up the tri-oval in Joliet Illinois. NASCAR started racing here at 2001, which means there is a smaller sample size to deal with. In that time, 60% of eventual winners start in the top-five of the grid and 53% of winners have been Chevys.
Qualfying was rained out for the third year in a row on Friday, so per the NASCAR rules, the starting grid will start with all 16 drivers in the Chase and proceed by points from there.
PLAYBOOK
| Driver | Draft Kings | Description |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,800 | Harvick comes into the Chase as the 4th seed and starts on a track that may not be his best. He does have the second most laps led at Chicago, but remains a GPP play only |
| Kyle Busch | $10,500 | Busch has the fourth best average finish at Chicago in the past two years and will start P1 on Sunday. He should have the chance for laps led starting on the pole. Cash or GPP |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $10,300 | Truex has been flat out the best driver at 1.5-mile tracks this season. He has been a middling option in the past but this is a career year for him, which ups his value. Both work |
| Brad Keselowski | $10,100 | Keselowski has the third most laps led, second best average finish, and a win in the past two races. He starts P2 on Sunday and has great value at $10,100. GPP is the focus here |
| Joey Logano | $9,900 | Logano has performed similarly well to Keselowski, save for the win and laps led at Chicago. His value comes in the P9 starting spot which should give better differential upside |
| Denny Hamlin | $9,700 | Hamlin owns the best positional differential in the field at +23 in the last two years, as well as having a win. He is coming off a dominant race at Richmond last week as well |
| Kyle Larson | $9,600 | Larson has been on fire of late and has shown speed to compete in the past with an average fifth place finish. He is in the Chase for the first time but is a sure bet to perform |
| Matt Kenseth | $9,400 | Kenseth has a top-five and two top-10s in the past two races here but is under the rader entering the playoffs. He remains a GPP play given his up and down past four weeks |
| Kurt Busch | $9,000 | Busch enters the Chase in the 12 spot meaning he could be on the chopping block if he doesn't move up in the next three weeks. He has a 5.5 AVG finish here. Cash or GPP play |
| Tony Stewart | $8,100 | Stewart will be trying to prove the last two weeks were mistakes. He is a middling driver this week but does have a lot of upside with this being his last shot at a title. |
| Jamie McMurray | $7,800 | McMurray is starting P16 as he is the 16th seed in the Chase. He has a top-10 finish and 32 laps led in the last two races. He has been on a roll of late and that should continue |
| Ryan Newman | $7,600 | Newman was a bit hot after last week's crash cost him a chance at the Chase. He has a top-five and top-10 with a 9.5 AVG finish here. He has been hit and miss this year so GPP |
| Landon Cassill | $5,800 | Cassill is back in the write-up as another budget play. He does own a +10 positional differential at Chicago and can really help at this price point. Either format will work |
| David Ragan | $5,600 | Ragan, like Cassill, is a budget play that owns a +10 positional differential. He is my sleeper play this week and has the upside to post a 30-point week. Cash and GPP is the play |
| Michael Annett | $4,700 | Annett is the third least expensive driver this week. He has the capability to post a 35+-point week though he is really a solid way to cap off a lineup |
OPTIMAL LINEUPS
| Draft Kings Cash | |
| Kyle Busch | $10,500 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $10,300 |
| Joey Logano | $9,900 |
| Jamie McMurray | $7,800 |
| Landon Cassill | $5,800 |
| David Ragan | $5,600 |
| Total | $49,900 |
The cash lineup this week is headlined by Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. as two drivers who have dominated at 1.5-mile tracks. Truex is in the midst of a career season and has led the most laps on the most popular track distance in 2016, including a 392 out of 400 performance at Charlotte. Busch is very good at Chicago and should be the tops of every cash lineup. Joey Logano and Jamie McMurray are the next two on the roster as value plays for their upside. McMurray has been on a roll the past several races and needs to move up in the next three races or risk being dropped from contention. Logano has performed similarly to Brad Keselowski but starts seven spots behind him and is cheaper to leave room in the budget. Landon Cassill and David Ragan add the chance to boost the positional differential points in the lineup for budget plays at less than $6,000.
| Draft Kings GPP | |
| Martin Truex Jr | $10,300 |
| Brad Keselowski | $10,100 |
| Denny Hamlin | $9,700 |
| Kyle Larson | $9,600 |
| David Ragan | $5,600 |
| Reed Sorenson | $4,500 |
| Total | $49,800 |
Four of the top drivers in the Chase head up the GPP lineup. Martin Truex Jr. and Brad Keselowski are the two over $10,000 for the week and offer a chance to get two of the top-five drivers at Chicago into the lineup. Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson have shown a lot of speed at the track with Hamlin having a win and the best positional differential at +23 and Larson having a +11 mark in the last two years. David Ragan, also in the cash lineup, has big value at $5,600 with positional differential upside. Reed Sorenson is the cheapest driver this week but does have some ability as a budget play.
All in all the lineups provide a lot of upside, more than normal, but still have a lot of the top drivers in the fold with the budget plays that could put them over the top.