2017 Fantasy Baseball Deep Sleeper: Pablo Sandoval

As we get closer to draft season the term “sleeper” is something that fantasy players love to use.  Often those players deemed “sleepers” are younger players and/or rookies that you take later in drafts in hopes that they reach potential at a great value for you the owner.  To me sleepers are not just limited to those rookies or upcoming stars but to established players as well who, because of a down season, are being overlooked in drafts and therefore become prime bounce back candidates.  These next few articles will focus on all the above, rookies and veterans, who have ADP’s greater than 200 that are worth targeting in your upcoming fantasy drafts.

Player: Pablo Sandoval

Team: Boston Red Sox

Position: Third Base

Current ADP: 336

Positional Rank: 34

For Pablo Sandoval, his time in Boston has been a complete disaster.  In 2015 he left the Giants and signed a 5-year/$95 million contract to join the Red Sox.  Sandoval then proceeded to turn in a career worst season, hitting .245 with 43 runs, 10 home runs, 47 RBI and an OPS of .658 over 126 games.  The Red Sox were hopeful for a bounce back year in 2016 but Sandoval came into spring training well overweight and just three games into the regular season he suffered what turned into a season ending injury.  Which brings us to 2017 where the former two-time All-Star is going undrafted in most standard leagues but I think there is reason for optimism with Sandoval heading into this season and here is why.

First and foremost, Sandoval spent this offseason getting back into shape with reports that he lost nearly 40-pounds and for those of you who haven’t checked out the photos the man might really be able to say he is in the best shape of his life and have it not be a cliché.  Pablo has also been saying all the right things to the media in terms of admitting he was lazy after signing his big contract but is determined to not disappoint this upcoming season. 

So let’s assume Sandoval is 100-percent healthy and focused OK? What can fantasy owners expect in terms of production?  Well, Pablo spent the first seven seasons of his career playing his home games in a ballpark that routinely ranks among the worst hitter parks in baseball but he still managed to hit .294 with 57 runs, 15 home runs and 66 RBI over an average of 124 games per year during that span.  Sandoval now plays his home games in Fenway Park which ranks among the top hitter’s parks and the A.L. East division in general is much more hitter friendly. In 2015 Pablo had success hitting within the division on a whole.

While he struggled mightily outside of the A.L. East

That type of discrepancy in production seems like a major outlier and is something that I believe is bound to improve. Another factor, aside from being out of shape, which lead to a disappointing season from Sandoval in 2015 was his horrid split stats as a switch hitter.  Sandoval just flat out COULD NOT HIT from the right side of the plate in 2015, owning a .049 batting average as a right-handed batter vs a left-handed pitcher while hitting .266 as a left-handed batter vs. a right-handed pitcher.  Pablo is a career .261 hitter from the right side of the plate, for him to hit .049 just seems like a number that will vastly improve.  Couple that with the likelihood that as a career .287 hitter he is going to hit better than .164 outside of the A.L. East I strongly believe that Sandoval is MUCH better than what we haves seen from him so far in Boston. 

The Red Sox have all but guaranteed Sandoval that he will be their starting third basemen in 2017 after they traded Travis Shaw in the offseason and the only real competition for the position is Brock Holt who the Red Sox would rather keep as their super utility player.  This position security will lead to guaranteed at bats in an offense that lead baseball in runs last year.  Of course, the retirement of David Ortiz has left a hole in that offense but Sandoval should hit somewhere between 5-7 in that lineup and be in position to drive in runs and the depth of the Sox lineup could see him scoring a good amount of runs as well. 

There are many projections out there for Sandoval for the 2017 season but for this example we will look at FanGraphs 2017 outlook for him.

As you can see there is not a whole lot of faith in Pablo staying healthy as the four projections have him averaging just 114 games and 427 at bats.  More interestingly to me is that over those 114 games he is projected to average 48 runs, 12 home runs and 55 RBI.  Clearly, I am much more bullish on the Sandoval bounce back season than most but given his focus this offseason to get back in shape it seems more likely that he can exceed all those numbers, especially the games played and at bats projections which will only lead to increased counting stats.

You won’t have to reach for Sandoval in your drafts unless he has a monster spring but he is a much better player than the 34^th ranked third basemen and he is somebody worth grabbing in the final rounds that can provide some very solid production in your CI or 3B slot this season.