How unpredictable is Major League Baseball? Well, everyone had the Mets in possession of the league’s worst team ERA at this point, right? Who out there had the Brewers leading the game in home runs? Six weeks ago, it was, of course, easy to imagine the Twins and Rockies as division leaders on Mother’s Day.
By the way, Happy Mother’s Day to all the Moms out there. Now, let’s take a look at what may, or may not, be predictable during the upcoming week of MLB action.
Game Schedule Breakdown
| TEAM | # GAMES | HOME | AWAY |
| Braves | 7 | 5 | 2 |
| Phillies | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| Marlins | 7 | 3 | 4 |
| Nationals | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| Mets | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Pirates | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Cubs | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Cardinals | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Reds | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Brewers | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| Diamondbacks | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Rockies | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| Dodgers | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| Giants | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Padres | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| Red Sox | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| Yankees | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Rays | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Blue Jays | 7 | 2 | 5 |
| Orioles | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Indians | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| White Sox | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| Twins | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Royals | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Tigers | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Astros | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Angels | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Rangers | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Mariners | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| Athletics | 7 | 4 | 3 |
- Only one five-game slate to note, and it belongs to the Cardinals. Oddly enough for a team with a short stack, the Cards will play all five at home in Busch Stadium where their pitching staff owns a nice 3.27 ERA.
- Similarly to the Cardinals, the Mariners have pitched quite well at home, posting a 3.64 ERA across 15 games. However, thanks to injuries, the Seattle staff is but a shell of itself with James Paxton, Felix Hernandez, Drew Smyly and Hisashi Iwakuma all presently on the DL. The Mariners will play seven games at Safeco, but it definitely seems like a great plan to stack up as many viable A’s and White Sox bats as possible against them.
- A few of the most hitter-friendly environments - Coors Field, Miller Park, Citizens Bank Park - are completely out of the mix. According to ESPN Park Factors, those three venues currently rank second, third and fourth respectively in offensive output for 2017.
- Where might one look for favorable offensive conditions this week? Minnesota and Atlanta come to the forefront. Target Field and SunTrust Park, which come in at No. 9 and No. 10 respectively on the Park Factor list, will host a combined 11 games this week.
Interleague Outlook
- The Red Sox have already played nine interleague games this year, but they will start off this week with a couple more Tuesday and Wednesday in St. Louis. Obviously, in an N.L. park, the DH is out of play. Over three games in Milwaukee this past week (Tues. - Thurs.), Hanley Ramirez was out of the starting lineup twice in favor of Mitch Moreland at first base. The Cardinals are expected to send right-handers Lance Lynn and Mike Leake to the hill opposite the Red Sox, and with Ramirez dealing with a shoulder issue, the smart money is on Moreland to get the nod for both games.
- Daniel Nava has been quite impressive in his opportunities with the bat for the Phillies so far this season, putting up a stout .901 OPS across 60 plate appearances. The Phils will visit the Rangers for a three-game set this week, which should provide Nava with extra at-bats.
Top-50 SP Rankings
- Most notably, only 15 two-start pitchers make the Top-50 this week, as many back-enders are slated for multiple outings over the next seven days.
- Eduardo Rodriguez is easily the name that jumps off the page among the Top-10, but he has earned his spot. Following two sometimes promising, yet inconsistent campaigns to begin his big-league career, the Boston lefty could be in the early stages of a true breakout. Over his last four starts, three of which came on the road, Rodriguez has turned in a terrific 1.88 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 27-to-8 K/BB ratio across 24.0 innings.
- The elite status of Clayton Kershaw is well solidified in Los Angeles, but another Dodgers’ lefty has been doing his best impression of the three-time Cy Young award winner recently. Alex Wood has registered a ridiculous 21 punchouts while surrendering just seven hits and two walks across 11 shutout innings during his last two starts.
- Matt Garza closes out the Top-50 this week. Though the veteran righty should not be totally trusted after laboring to a 5.18 ERA over two injury-riddled campaigns in 2015 and 2016, his last three efforts afford some attention. During that stretch, Garza has worked to a 2.75 ERA and 15-to-2 K/BB ratio while lasting at least six innings each time out.
Next 25 SP
- A few more two-start hurlers reside here in the 51-75 range. One of which, Brandon McCarthy, would certainly merit a higher spot if it were not for a shoulder issue that has held him out since April 29. The matchups on tap for McCarthy (at SF, vs. MIA) are indeed inviting, as the Giants hold a meager .626 OPS vs. RHP headed into play on Sunday and the Marlins have averaged just 4.0 runs per game while losing 14-of-17 dating back to April 26.
Nate Miller is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and has been an analyst in the industry since 2013. You can follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad, where he is always up for fielding any Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Football or DFS questions.
