With the Home Run Derby and the All-Star break just a few weeks away it’s worth taking a look at the alleged “Derby Curse” and if it truly has any merit. For the small minority of you readers who may not know what this curse entails, in short, it’s a theory that states participants in the HR derby experience negative regression in their power numbers for the 2nd half of the season. This edition of the Daily Bender will look to validate the curse while projecting some participants for this year’s contest that could be in line for a rough second half.
Learning From the Past
By looking at participants from the last 5 years, fantasy owners may be able to brace themselves for the future. Look at Wil Myers from the 2016 HR Derby. He had a stellar start to his season by hitting .286 with 19 home runs and he boasted a .873 OPS. After the Derby he hit 9 HR’s with a .223 BA and .697 OPS. Now Myers’ regression supports the theory, but he only lasted 1 round in the competition. He didn’t go as deep as some others did. Myers has even gone on record saying he got a little “fat and happy” by reaching the All-Star break and his head wasn’t in it during the second half.
Joc Pederson is a fantastic player to look at. In 2015 the young, blossoming star headed into the break with 20 HR’s and with an .851 OPS (.487 SLG). He managed to hit 39 bombs total in the contest and finished as the runner-up. However, after the contest in 219 plate appearances Pederson hit just 6 home runs with a .617 OPS (.300 SLG) for the rest of the season. 2015’s winner, Todd Frazier, experienced a similar dropoff in the 2nd half of the season. He muscled out 25 HR’s in 374 plate appearances in the 1st half with a .284 batting average and .922 OPS (on a whopping .585 SLG). After mashing 39 total home runs in the derby like Pederson, the ToddFather saw his production drop to 10 HR’s in 304 plate appearances with a .220 batting average and a .664 OPS on .390 SLG.
So there appears to be some merit based on players that certainly go deep into the contest. Below is a table featuring the Final Round participants from the last 5 Derbies and their numbers before and after the contest…
| HR Before | HR After | AVG/SLG/OPS Before | AVG/SLG/OPS After | |
| 2016 | ||||
| G. Stanton | 20 | 7 | .233/.495/.823 | .254/.478/.800 |
| T.Frazier | 25 | 15 | .213/.476/.781 | .240/.450/.749 |
| 2015 | ||||
| T. Frazier | 25 | 10 | .284/.585/.922 | .220/.390/.664 |
| J. Pederson | 20 | 6 | .230/.487/.851 | .178/.300/.617 |
| 2014 | ||||
| Y. Cespedes | 14 | 8 | .246/.442/.741 | .279/.462/.765 |
| T. Frazier | 19 | 10 | .290/.500/.853 | .247/.396/.708 |
| 2013 | ||||
| Y. Cespedes | 15 | 11 | .225/.420/.713 | .261/.473/.769 |
| B. Harper | 13 | 7 | .264/.522/.893 | .283/.453/.819 |
| 2012 | ||||
| P. Fielder | 15 | 15 | .299/.505/.885 | .331/.558/.1.006 |
| J. Bautista | 27 | 0 | .244/.540/.900 | .176/.294/.627 |
Now pay attention to some of the statistical outliers. In addressing Jose Bautista’s significant dropoff in 2012, he only played 6 games following the All-Star break because he suffered a wrist injury (while swinging) that limited his second half performance. Also you can’t judge the power dropoff theory by just looking at home runs. There are more games played before the All-Star break than after so there are obviously less plate appearances to players. There are even some players who beat the theory. Yoenis Cespedes experienced better numbers after the break than before although he didn’t reach 30 HR’s total in either the 2013 or 2014 seasons. Prince Fielder was another player that bucked the trend by also improving immensely after the break, but he benefitted from a phenomenal lineup structure.
However, there are guys like Todd Frazier, who after his first try or maybe even his second try might have learned his lesson. Frazier saw his slugging percentage and OPS drop in the three consecutive years he participated in the slugfest’s final round. Excluding Baustista because of his injury, six of the last nine finalists experienced negative regression in their slugging percentage after partaking in the home run derby.
Planning Ahead
Looking ahead, fantasy owners will brace themselves over the next few weeks as they wait to hear if any of their players will participate in the 2017 derby in Marlins Park. Below are some players to be watchful of.
Giancarlo Stanton (MIA): He’s not only the reigning champion, but MLB loves when a player representing the host city gets involved with the derby and Stanton is the most likely candidate. He’s currently sporting a .540 slugging percentage with 18 home runs. There’s a huge reason to be concerned about Stanton as he’s certainly injury prone and experienced negative regression after winning last year’s derby.
Cody Bellinger (LAD): The young rookie is beloved by fantasy owners everywhere as he’s the fastest player ever to reach 21 home runs. Currently he’s sitting on 22 home runs with an absurd .665 slugging percentage. Obviously his slugging percentage could regress even if he doesn’t get involved in the contest simply because that SLG% is unsustainable. Young players don’t bounce back from the derby as well as experienced players so Bellinger is one to keep an eye on.
Aaron Judge (NYY): Judge, like Bellinger, has 24 home runs and sports a ridiculous .694 slugging percentage. Even without the derby he could experience regression after the break, but he’s been quite a surprise and has even confirmed he’s been asked to participate in this year’s derby. As of right now, he’s the name on this list most likely to appear in the competition.
Miguel Sano (MIN): Sano is yet another young star who could be a fresh face for the derby. He’s currently at 18 HR’s with a .581 SLG. The 24-year-old could see regression because he’s now in his 3rd year and he’s yet to come close to playing a full season in the majors. He’s also striking out at an alarming 34.4% and could see a drop in his .581 SLG and .402 wOBA.
Eric Thames (MIL): Thames took the league by storm in April. From April 3rd to the 25th Thames mashed 11 HR’s and had a .371 batting average with a .929 SLG and a ridiculous 1.411 OPS. But perhaps regression has already hit the 30-year-old. Since April 26th he’s hit just 9 home runs with a .201 batting average and .428 SLG. The derby could certainly hurt Thames even more as he’s worn off the magic from his hot return to the majors after a stint in South Korea. For the sake of fantasy owners, hopefully Thames skips out on the derby.