It’s a new month, and the first round of the NBA Playoffs are entering their final stages. Three Western Conference teams have punched their ticket to the second round. Ironically enough, they are all from the same division, the Northwest. 

 

 

 

The Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets, and Minnesota Timberwolves have been the best of the West all season and are the first teams to advance. 

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NBA Picks & Predictions: Wednesday, 5/1

The Eastern Conference is yet to have a team advance to the second round, but that could change tonight. The Boston Celtics are up three-to-one and hosting the Miami Heat in the first of two NBA games tonight. There is a wager on a player getting his first mention in Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets this season! 

The Bet of the Night is in the Western Conference showdown of the Los Angeles Clippers hosting the Dallas Mavericks. In fact, there are two bets coming from Crypto.com Arena tonight, and both are player props on future Hall of Fame members. 

 

 

 

Mavericks vs. Clippers Prediction: Luka Doncic Over 33.5 Points (+100 on DraftKings)

The Dallas Mavericks have won two games against the Los Angeles Clippers with Kawhi Leonard in the lineup. The Los Angeles Clippers have won two games without Leonard in the lineup, a strange anomaly to say the least. Leonard is out again tonight, and Luka Doncic will need to take advantage of one of their best defenders not playing.

Doncic has yet to score 34 points in this series, despite a large number of field goal attempts. He has 24 or more field goal attempts in every game of this series, a large number of them three-point attempts. He has yet to make 12 baskets in a game, and we are expecting that to change tonight. 

The Mavericks have had several players involved in this series, including bench players. Kyrie Irving has taken charge at moments of every game as well. With such a crucial Game 5, Irving and Doncic will both have a pivotal role, but Doncic has the ball in his hands more than Irving. 

Doncic has also played 40 or more minutes in every game of this series. That will not change tonight, and with so much at stake look for Doncic to take advantage of every mismatch he can. There is a projected 208.5 points tonight, with the Mavericks favored by three points. Doncic has yet to have a ‘Luka Magic’ like game, and as the series extend further the stars of each team elevate their game. 

It will be a close game, and Doncic is a closer. He has been close to 34 in a couple games this series, and his most points came when Leonard was out of the lineup. Look for magic from the All-Star tonight, and for him to deliver on today’s NBA predictions Bet of the Night.

 

 

 

NBA Props & Parlays, 5/1

The Boston Celtics are heavy favorites today, with a spread of 14 points against the Miami Heat. The Celtics have a chance to exact revenge against the team that knocked them out last year, and in the process be the first Eastern Conference team to advance to the second round. 

Also in today’s NBA picks is another bet from the Mavs vs. Clippers matchup. Russell Westbrook’s playoff numbers are down this series, as are his minutes. It seems as though he is frustrated and incapable of getting in a rhythm.

 

 

 

Heat vs. Celtics Prediction: Boston ML + Al Horford O7.5 Rebounds (-105 on DraftKings)

I had to add a Heat vs. Celtics SGP to my NBA predictions today. The moneyline of this Same Game Parlay is added to take the juice off of Al Horford’s rebounding line. Although the Heat have shown they can beat the Celtics, the Celtics are a better team, even if injured. 

Horford has eight rebounds in two games of this series and has more than six in all four games. The thirty-seven-year-old center is in line for more responsibility with Kristaps Porzingis out tonight, and possibly the next series. 

Horford stated that he would have to step it up, and the five-time All-Star has proven he can do it. Game 4 was the first game he exceeded 30 minutes in the series; he played 34. He could play that much again if not more and should have plenty of rebounding opportunities. 

The seventeen-year vet may not get as much praise as LeBron James, but he is still capable of impacting a playoff series. Although he does not have as near as decorated a career as James, Horford is a back-to-back champion (University of Florida), and knows how to elevate his game in pressure games. 

This is a potentially series clinching game, and an opportunity to get more rest than the rest of the conference is a pressure game. Look for Hortford to earn eight or more rebounds at TD Garden tonight.

 

 

 

Mavericks vs. Clippers Prediction: Russell Westbrook Under 8.5 Points (-130 on DraftKings)

Westbrook has scored in double-digits just once this series. He has attempted less than 10 field goals in every game, and with James Harden playing so well, Westbrook is seeing less game time. 

Even when Westbrook is in, he is playing off the ball along with James Harden. This makes it difficult as Westbrook has rarely had a high percentage jumpshot. He has played 24 minutes or less in every game of this series, and it’s clear that Head Coach Tyronn Lue is putting the game into James Harden’s hands. 

Westbrook could always explode for a good game, but it could be an excellent rebounding game or great defensive play. He has a combined for 13 points in his last three games, never exceeding seven points. Granted, he was ejected in one of those games, but he is not himself in this series. His points, field goal percentage, rebounds, and assists are down from the regular season.

Although Leonard is out again for this game, do not expect an uptick of points from Westbrook. He is averaging six points per game with a terrible field goal percentage. Dallas has a bigger and improved defense which is making it difficult for Westbrook to drive and score. Trust the under on Westbrook’s points in Game 5, which will cap off today’s NBA picks.

 

 

 

Thanks for looking at my NBA best bets today! Remember to visit Fantasy Alarm for all your fantasy sports and betting needs.

Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All NBA odds accurate at time of writing and bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise