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2023 Player Outlook

2023 Recap: The power numbers weren't there for Marte the past few seasons after he hit 32 back in 2019. Well, they returned in 2023, as Marte hit 25 home runs last year, to go along with a .276/.385/.485 slash line and .209 ISO. His barrel rate and hard-hit rate were more aligned to his 2019 and 2021 seasons, but his 36.2 percent fly ball rate was nearly four percentage points higher than his career average, and his 14.9 percent HR/FB rate was the third-best of his career. Just like he did back in 2019, Marte punished breaking pitches, and last year's .585 SLG (.519 xSLG) rivaled his .589 SLG against breaking pitches in 2019. 

2024 Outlook: Heading into 2024, the same question pops up for Marte, which is how much power can we project for him? Over his final 66 games of the season, he hit a home run every 24-25 at-bats or so, which if we parlay 24.5 AB/HR over 550 at-bats, it comes out to 22 home runs, so let's say 18-22 home runs for Marte in 2024. He only had two stolen bases over his final 66 games of the year, so what if he only steals five or six bases this year? Second base is a bit top-loaded at the position, but Marte carries a bit more risk than I would prefer at his price point. A .270 average with 18-22 home runs, 85+ runs scored, and six stolen bases is still a solid season at his current ADP, but there are options going after him that could put forth similar results.

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