UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs Brown takes place this Saturday from Las Vegas, Nevada.  The card kicks off with the Prelims at 4:00 PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 7:00 PM EST on ESPN+.  Both Bonfim and Brown are looking to launch themselves towards the top 10 of the division, and a statement win in this tight matchup could put them one step closer.

Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
 

 


 

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs Brown 

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Gabriel Bonfim vs Randy Brown

8600/7600

-

Stackability: Low

-188/ 146

-105/300.

The main event this week features two fighters on impressive winning streaks. Bonfim has won 3 in a row with good submission skills and solid striking, while Brown is one judges scorecard away from being on a 5-fight winning streak. Bonfim is definitely the better wrestler and grappler, but he has shown questionable cardio. It might not even be cardio but rather his ability to push through adversity. Brown on the other hand has been in there with former champion Belal Mohammad and current champion Jack Della Madellena, and while he hasn't won either fight, he at least has the experience against the top tier of the UFC. I'm picking Brown here but expect the fight to be close.


 

Expensive Fighters

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Josh Hokit

9400

Max Gimenis

Somewhat-Safe

-420 

-250 

Hokit should be able to wear down Gimenis with his wrestling and get the finish, but this is a low-level fight featuring a fighter with 6 professional fights as a massive favorite.
Joseph Morales

9300

Matt Schnell

Somewhat-Safe

-430 

-130 

Morales isn't normally someone I target but Schnell has lost his durability in the last few years to the point where he retired for a little bit before returning. I think Morales will drop him and probably gets the finish by KO.
Uros Medic

8800

Muslim Salikhov

Somewhat-Safe

-154 

+110 

Medic has a high ceiling, but if he loses this fight, he is getting KO'd. He likes to go into the pocket and trade shots, so scoring 100+ or 5pts wouldn't be surprising to me. Tournament play only!
Marco Tulio

8700

Christian Leroy Duncan

Moderate

-192 

185. 

Tulio throws a ton of volume so even in a decision he can score well. I'm not confident that he will get the finish but at least we know he can score 80+ pts even if this hits the judges’ scorecards with the amount of significant strikes that he throws.
Ismael Bonfim

9000

Chris Padilla

Moderate

-205 

-175

Bonfim has good submission and wrestling skills, but he has a tough test in Padilla. If he gets his wrestling going he could dominate this fight but Padilla has shown to be very durable so he'll be a tough out.



 

Mid-Range Fighter

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Daniel Marcos

8500

Miles Johns

Moderate

-194 

350. 

Marcos is a good striker and he should be able to win the exchanges on the feet. Johns definitely has the wrestling advantage. If this was a few years ago I would say Marcos has the cardio advantage but Johns seems to have magically found his cardio as he ages. 
Hyder Amil

8200

Jamall Emmers

Moderate

-150 

120. 

This fight could end early, but if it doesn't I expect Amil to takeover late. Emmers has power and good wrestling but he can't keep up for a full 3 rounds at the pace that Amil will push.
Raoni Barcelos

7800

Ricky Simon

Somewhat-Risky

140 

450. 

I like Raoni as a dog this week. He is well rounded, but probably won't look to wrestle against Simon. Simon needs to wrestle otherwise he will get his leg chopped up here, and I expect Raoni to be able to set the pace to win the fight.
Ricky Simon

8400

Raoni Barcelos

Somewhat-Risky

-172 

300. 

Simon wrestles so he has a good ceiling, but I just don't like to back him since he is so one dimensional. I know he has a KO win recently but before that he never showed that he was a power puncher.
Jamall Emmers

8000

Hyder Amil

Somewhat-Risky

122 

200. 

Emmers should wrestle here to slow down Amil but he has fallen in love with his early KO power. High ceiling play, but he probably loses round 2/3 if it gets there.
Miles Johns

7700

Daniel Marcos

Somewhat-Risky

156 

200

Johns has new found cardio and takedown upside. He won't throw much on the feet so if he doesn't get the takedowns don't expect him to score much.
Jackson McVey

7900

#N/A

Risky

235 

225. 

McVey is fighting Zach Reese, and although there isn't a line yet I think he'll be a +250 underdog. He has some upside with his size and Reece being a boom or bust fighter, but I think he is a bad play at his price.



 

Paydown Fighters

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Christian Leroy Duncan

7500

Marco Tulio

Somewhat-Risky

154 

300. 

Duncan is going to have to finish Tulio or land a ton of volume to slow him down. He might be able to wrestle him since we haven't seen Tulio fight off takedowns yet.
Muslim Salikhov

7400

Uros Medic

Somewhat-Risky

126 

180. 

Medic will come forward which plays perfectly into Salikhov's counter game. He has a high ceiling of a first round finish but he has low volume if this gets to the judges.
Chris Padilla

7200

Ismael Bonfim

Risky

164 

275. 

Padilla seems like he has a ton of confidence and can deal with adversity which is something I haven't seen Bonfim deal well with. Bonfim may quit if this if a tight contest, and I personally like Padilla this week to win by late finish.
Mayra Bueno Silva

7000

Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Risky

198 

500. 

She has the submission upside, but if she doesn't get it she probably won't score more than 60 even in a win.
Matt Schnell

6900

Joseph Morales

Risky

300 

500. 

Schnell has the skills to win the fight but his chin isn't good enough to deal with pressure. If this goes to decision he probably wins the fight, but he is tough to watch now that it looks like any punch can put him down.
Tecia Pennington

7300

Denise Gomes

Risky

148 

+1,100 

Pennington always fights close and I expect the same here. She doesn't score well on DraftKings so she needs everyone else around her to lose the fight for her to get on the winning lineup, but at her price she might be able to do it. She'll need to avoid getting taken down to stand a chance.
Max Gimenis

6800

Josh Hokit

Risky

310 

475. 

Gimenis looks like he has 3 minutes of cardio, and Hokit isn't some ultra prospect so he has a chance to win the fight in those first three minutes. I don't want to back him here, but it is two debuting fighters at heavyweight, anything could happen.



 

Sample Lineup

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Live Dogs

Brown, Salikhov, Padilla, Barcelos

Picks and Stats

   

Gabriel Bonfim

vs

Randy Brown

$8,600

DFS Salary

$7,600

Record: 18-1-0

Record

Record: 20-6-0

3

Knockouts

8

13

Subs

5

-188

Vegas Odds

146

   

Matt Schnell

vs

Joseph Morales

$6,900

DFS Salary

$9,300

Record: 17-9-0 (1 NC)

Record

Record: 14-2-0

2

Knockouts

2

9

Subs

7

300

Vegas Odds

-430

   

Muslim Salikhov

vs

Uros Medic

$7,400

DFS Salary

$8,800

Record: 22-5-0

Record

Record: 11-3-0

14

Knockouts

9

3

Subs

2

126

Vegas Odds

-154

   

Chris Padilla

vs

Ismael Bonfim

$7,200

DFS Salary

$9,000

Record: 16-6-0

Record

Record: 20-5-0

8

Knockouts

9

5

Subs

4

164

Vegas Odds

-205

   

Christian Leroy Duncan

vs

Marco Tulio

$7,500

DFS Salary

$8,700

Record: 12-2-0

Record

Record: 14-1-0

9

Knockouts

10

1

Subs

1

154

Vegas Odds

-192

 

0

 

Hyder Amil

vs

Jamall Emmers

$8,200

DFS Salary

$8,000

Record: 11-1-0

Record

Record: 21-8-0

6

Knockouts

9

1

Subs

3

-150

Vegas Odds

122

   

Ricky Simon

vs

Raoni Barcelos

$8,400

DFS Salary

$7,800

Record: 22-6-0

Record

Record: 20-5-0

7

Knockouts

8

4

Subs

3

-172

Vegas Odds

140

   

Mayra Bueno Silva

vs

Jacqueline Cavalcanti

$7,000

DFS Salary

$9,200

Record: 10-5-1 (1 NC)

Record

Record: 9-1-0

1

Knockouts

3

7

Subs

0

198

Vegas Odds

-250

   

Josh Hokit

vs

Max Gimenis

$9,400

DFS Salary

$6,800

Record: 6-0-0

Record

Record: 6-1-0

3

Knockouts

4

3

Subs

1

-420

Vegas Odds

310

   

Tecia Pennington

vs

Denise Gomes

$7,300

DFS Salary

$8,900

Record: 15-7-0

Record

Record: 11-3-0

2

Knockouts

0

4

Subs

2

148

Vegas Odds

-188

   

Miles Johns

vs

Daniel Marcos

$7,700

DFS Salary

$8,500

Record: 15-4-0 (1 NC)

Record

Record: 17-1-0 (1 NC)

4

Knockouts

8

2

Subs

0

156

Vegas Odds

-194

   

Zach Reese

vs

Jackson McVey

#N/A

DFS Salary

$7,900

Record: 9-2-0 (1 NC)

Record

Record: 6-1-0

5

Knockouts

3

2

Subs

3

#N/A

Vegas Odds

#N/A

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