MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night Sandhagen vs Vera
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs Vera kicks off with the Early Prelims at 4:00 PM on ESPN+ followed by the Main Card at 7:00PM on ESPN+.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs Vera
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Marlon Vera vs Cory Sandhagen | 7600/8600 | - | Stackability: Low | +138/ -200 | +225/+125 |
| An action-packed main event this week brings us Cory Sandhagen vs Marlon Vera for one of the top five spots in the 135lb division. Sandhagen throws a ton of volume and starts fast, but he needs to avoid the power shots from Vera if he wants to win this fight. This fight is going to play out similar to how Cruz vs Vera happened, if Vera doesn't land knockdowns or wobble Sandhagen I expect Cory to be able to win the decision based on volume. Both are good plays on DraftKings but I'm going to be heavier Sandhagen since his durability has held up against other high level fighters in the division. For cash games you can stack this fight up as I expect it to go 5 rounds and the loser of the fight still scores 50-60 points if that happens. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| CJ Vergara | 9300 | Daniel da Silva | Somewhat-Safe | -250 | -200 |
| This week is different than the last few, we don't have any huge favorites but we do have some exciting fights up top that should lead to some decent scoring. Vergara doesn't normally finish fights in the UFC, but his opponent has never seen a third round in any of his 15 professional fights. Vergara should be able to withstand some early adversity and I think he finds the finish by KO late in round 1 or early in round 2. | |||||
| Nate Landwehr | #N/A | #N/A | Somewhat-Safe | -220 | +140 |
| Nate the train is always in wild fights, and I don't expect anything different here. Landwehr can get reckless at times and has found himself walking head first into knees, but Lingo isn't a power striker so he should be able to out volume Lingo here. Landwehr has the wrestling advantage if he wanted to use it, but he loves to give the fans a show so I'm expecting him to just bite down on his mouthpiece, move forward, and hopefully landing a huge score for us. | |||||
| Tucker Lutz | 9200 | Daniel Pineda | Somewhat-Safe | -278 | -105 |
| Lutz isn't a world beater by any stretch of the imagination, but Pineda is 37 years old and has always been a defensive liability. Pineda really struggles to stop takedowns so Lutz should be able to capitalize and get the fight to the ground. Lutz is the rightful favorite in this spot, and my only reservation is Pineda is local to Houston Texas and we've seen the Texas judges be terrible in the past so if this hits the judges’ scorecards it could get greasy. | |||||
| Chidi Njokuani | 8800 | Albert Duraev | Moderate | -167 | +100 |
| Chidi has really made improvements to his all-around game, but in this spot he has the clear striking advantage so I don't think he'll look to mix it up as much. Duraev only has four career losses, but in all four of them he was either knocked out or his face was so swollen the doctor stopped it so Chidi has a huge ceiling if he can land clean. I think early on Chidi stuffs the takedowns of Duraev and eventually finds the second round stoppage. | |||||
| Manel Kape | 8900 | Alex Perez | Moderate | -200 | +110 |
| Kape has the speed advantage here and is more durable, but Perez is the best fighter he has faced before. If Perez was still in his prime, he would be the favorite here but he hasn't shown any reliability of late and has pulled out of more fights than he has actually fought in. Kape uses his speed and eventually catches Perez, but with how low volume Kape normally is I'm not as confident that he ends up on the optimal lineup. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Manuel Torres | 8500 | Trey Ogden | Moderate | -148 | +120 |
| Torres has crisp striking and outside of a few submission losses he has a pretty clean track record of winning stand up fights. Ogden's striking is way behind here so unless this fight gets to the ground I think it is one way traffic for Torres. | |||||
| Vinicius Salvador | 8300 | Victor Altamirano | Moderate | -117 | +145 |
| This fight is a toss-up so normally I wouldn't rank Salvador this high but when he wins fights it is almost always by finish. Altamirano is durable so he could extend Salvador but I want to be high on this fight as a whole since it is reasonably priced and both fighters have a high ceiling. | |||||
| Preston Parsons | 8000 | Trevin Giles | Somewhat-Risky | -112 | +190 |
| Parson's fights at a pace that I don't think Giles will be able to keep up with for the full 15 minutes which is the major reason I'm backing him in this matchup. Parson's may not be successful on his first takedown attempt, but he is willing to attempt multiple which will help him to further tire out Giles. Giles has some power, but he throws such little volume that even in a win, if it gets outside of the first round you won't want to have Giles in your lineups. | |||||
| Steven Peterson | 8700 | Lucas Alexander | Somewhat-Risky | -157 | +180 |
| Peterson's wins in this division have been against the absolute lowest caliber of fighter, but Alexander may belong in that conversation. Peterson's last fight was an absolute war with Julian Erosa, but I think this one may take place at a much more manageable pace for him, which could lead to success. If this fight gets finished I think the most likely outcome is a submission win by Peterson, as Alexander has been pretty durable but all of his career losses have come via submission. | |||||
| Victor Altamirano | 7900 | Vinicius Salvador | Somewhat-Risky | -106 | +240 |
| Altamiriano has never been knocked out, and if this fight gets into the later rounds, he is well suited to fight for a full 15 minutes. When both of these guys are fresh Victor is going to be giving up some speed and technical striking, but once they get tired he may be able to pull out the victory. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Andrea Lee | 7100 | Maycee Barber | Somewhat-Risky | +220 | +600 |
| Lee is a hometown fighter taking on the talented Barber but I think this line is off by 70-80pts. Barber has shown zero urgency in her UFC career and has been in a ton of closely contested fights which isn't great when facing a Texas fighter in Houston. I'll be back Lee pretty heavily, and even in cash games I think she is the best punt play as I expect the fight to see the judges’ scorecards. | |||||
| Austin Lingo | 6800 | Nate Landwehr | Somewhat-Risky | +175 | +325 |
| I want as much of this fight as possible if I'm trying to win a GPP. Landwehr is like a knockoff Diaz brother so I expect him to be bleeding pretty much right away in this fight which could help Lingo on the judges’ scorecards. Landwehr isn't a one punch KO type of fighter and Lingo could be getting the better of the early exchanges, if he can keep his pace for at least ten minutes he has a chance to win a decision on the judges’ scorecards. | |||||
| Albert Duraev | 7400 | Chidi Njokuani | Risky | +135 | +240 |
| Duraev is going to try to wrestle, and while I don't love his chances to win this fight if he can find success in wrestling, he should score well. There aren't many high ceiling fighters priced below him so in a victory he may be good enough to hit the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Daniel Pineda | 7000 | Tucker Lutz | Risky | +215 | +325 |
| Pineda has scored well in all of his recent wins on DraftKings, but it wasn't against this level of competition. Pineda works best when he is controlling the fight, so he needs to get this fight to the ground with top control to be able to have any chance in this matchup. | |||||
| Daniel da Silva | 6900 | CJ Vergara | Risky | +200 | +260 |
| Kill or be killed has been Daniel's way of fighting and while he is giving up speed and technical ability here, if he turns this into a brawl, he at least has a chance to connect with the heat he throws. | |||||
| Yana Santos | 7200 | Holly Holm | Risky | +200 | +700 |
| I don't really want any part of this fight, but if I had to take some, I guess I would want the underdog. Santos is going to look to control the fight along the fence and keep it close, but I don't think she is actually strong enough to keep Holm there. This is a punt play, but I'd prefer the ceiling of Lee for $100 less. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Vera, Lingo, Lee, Parsons
Stats and Picks
Marlon Vera | vs | Cory Sandhagen |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 20-7-1 | Record | Record: 15-4-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 7 |
8 | Subs | 3 |
+138 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
Holly Holm | vs | Yana Santos |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 14-6-0 | Record | Record: 14-6-0 (1 NC) |
8 | Knockouts | 7 |
0 | Subs | 1 |
-250 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Nate Landwehr | vs | Austin Lingo |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 16-4-0 | Record | Record: 9-1-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 3 |
1 | Subs | 2 |
-220 | Vegas Odds | +175 |
Andrea Lee | vs | Maycee Barber |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 13-6-0 | Record | Record: 11-2-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 5 |
5 | Subs | 2 |
+220 | Vegas Odds | -286 |
Alex Perez | vs | Manel Kape |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
| Record: 24-7-0 | Record | Record: 18-6-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 11 |
7 | Subs | 5 |
+160 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
0 | ||
Chidi Njokuani | vs | Albert Duraev |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 22-8-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 15-4-0 |
14 | Knockouts | 3 |
1 | Subs | 9 |
-167 | Vegas Odds | +135 |
Daniel Pineda | vs | Tucker Lutz |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 27-14-0 (3 NC) | Record | Record: 12-2-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 7 |
18 | Subs | 1 |
+215 | Vegas Odds | -278 |
Steven Peterson | vs | Lucas Alexander |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 19-10-0 | Record | Record: 7-3-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 3 |
8 | Subs | 0 |
-157 | Vegas Odds | +125 |
Trevin Giles | vs | Preston Parsons |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 15-4-0 | Record | Record: 10-3-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 0 |
5 | Subs | 9 |
-112 | Vegas Odds | -112 |
CJ Vergara | vs | Daniel Lacerda |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | #N/A |
| Record: 10-4-1 | Record | Record: 11-4-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 5 |
0 | Subs | 6 |
#N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
Manuel Torres | vs | Trey Ogden |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 13-2-0 | Record | Record: 16-5-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 0 |
6 | Subs | 11 |
-148 | Vegas Odds | +118 |
Victor Altamirano | vs | Vinicius Salvador |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 14-4-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 13 |
4 | Subs | 1 |
-106 | Vegas Odds | -117 |
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