MLB DFS Hitting Coach: September 29
Published: Sep 29, 2021
It is the final Wednesday of the MLB DFS regular season and that comes with some sadness. However, it also means that there is still time to make some money! We have a lucky 13 games on the slate today with some elite level pitching on the offering. However, whenever there are that many games there are always a lot of dumpster fires on the mound where we can pounce! We have some streaking teams, streaking players, and other situations with guys at different salary levels to help you see green tonight!
JT Realmuto, C, PHI – I don’t often put too much weight into a pitcher vs batter situation in the top tier, but this one is hard to ignore. Max Fried has been very good lately as he has allowed more than two earned runs just once in his last five starts. However, Realmuto has hit over .300 in Atlanta in his career and has fared quite well against Fried. In 23 at-bats, he has a .435 average that includes two doubles, a triple and three home runs while driving in seven runs. Realmuto is finishing the season strong, hitting .314 with two homers and 12 RBI in the last two weeks and is in a great spot to continue that today.
Nick Castellanos, OF, CIN – His four-game homer streak was snapped last night, but Castellanos is still on a tear. He has hit .318 in the last week with those four home runs and has driven in 11. He also has four multi-hit games over the last ten. The White Sox are sending Carlos Rodón to the mound who has had a fantastic season but is having arm troubles and only lasted three innings his last time out, so he isn’t likely to be the same dominating pitcher he has been in 2021. Castellanos has hit .306 against lefties this season with a .945 OPS which is slightly higher than against right-handers. He has faced Rodon ten times in his career and has five hits including a triple and a home run.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, NYY – It isn’t the most ideal matchup as he has just one hit in five at-bats against José Berríos, but you can’t ignore Stanton and how hot he and the Yankees are right now. His home run on Tuesday was his fourth straight game with a long ball and five in the last six. He has four straight multi-hit games and has driven in 13 runs in the last four. He is insanely hot. I like Judge in this game also as he has hit Berrios better in his career, but you just can’t stop Stanton right now. He has hit nearly 40 points higher on the road this season and has 25 of his 35 home runs against right-handed pitching.
Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, SF – It just wouldn’t seem like I wrote this article if I didn’t take a shot on someone going against Merrill Kelly. I have to stay true to who I am! Bryant has three hits in the last two days, and the Giants are playing meaningful baseball trying to hold the Dodgers off for the NL West crown. Bryant does hit lefties better than he does righties, but he also has hit .500 against Kelly in 14 career at-bats. It isn’t a huge sample size, but that production is significant especially when four of those seven hits are for extra bases. Kelly has allowed 15 earned runs and 28 hits in his last three starts that have spanned just 15.2 innings, including five home runs! He clearly has his first tee time Monday on his mind.
Paul Goldschimdt, 1B, STL – The Cardinals winning streak has stretched to 17 and Goldschmidt has been a big part of that. In the last two weeks he is hitting over .400 with six home runs and 14 RBI and nearly .500 in the last seven games. He has 14 home runs at home this season and 23 against right-handed pitching. The Brewers will throw Adrian Houser who Goldy has hit .300 against with two home runs and six RBI. The Cardinals keep winning and putting up solid run totals almost every day. Houser has pitched fairly well against the Cardinals the past two times out, but St. Louis is so hot, and you just have to keep riding their bats until this ridiculous win streak ends.
Amed Rosario, SS, CLE – He missed time following the death of his grandmother and then Covid protocls but Rosario has come out firing since his return. He had no hits last night but still has eight in his last five games which were all in multi-hit games. He has hit .350 in Kansas City in his career with two home runs and ten RBI in nine starts there. The Royals are sending young Daniel Lynch to the mound who Rosario has been hitless in three at-bats against, but he has hit .312 against left-handed pitching with the same number of home runs (5) despite 193 fewer plate appearances against lefties.
Carson Kelly, C, ARI – He hasn’t played in two days since an off-day Monday and not starting on Tuesday, which means he should be fresh and ready to go down the stretch. Kelly has homered in two of the last four games that he has played including four hits in the last four games. He has hit a respectable .278 with seven extra base hits in 13 starts San Francisco in his career. The Giants throw Alex Wood to the mound who hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in five straight starts. However, the last time he did was on August 10th where he gave up five runs in six innings to these Diamondbacks. Kelly has hit .311 with a 1.037 OPS against lefties including nine of his 13 home runs despite nearly 100 fewer plate appearances against them. He has four hits in nine at-bats against Wood in his career with a single, double, triple and home run against him.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa, SS, TEX – I used this guy five days ago in the hitting coach and he gave us three hits and a run scored. It does light up the scoreboard, but with such little investment you could do far worse. He has stolen 20 bags this year so he can also get you points on the basepaths, and he has a little pop. He hits 54 points higher against right-handed pitching and has five of his seven home runs at home this season. The Angels are throwing Janson Junk who has allowed five home runs in just 12 innings of his three starts this season including five runs in less than four innings against these Rangers on September 5th in which Kiner-Falefa had two hits against him.
MOuntcastle/Hays vs Eovaldi
Conforto vs Elisier
Austin Riley vs Nola
Miguel Cabrera vs Pineda
Nick Castellanos vs Carlos Rodón
Bosey vs Merrill Kelly