Welcome to the DFS Watch List for NFL Week 11!

What's going on, #FANation? Bit of a tougher time last week as the value chalk hit everywhere – D'Ernest Johnson, Mark Ingram, Rhamondre Stevenson – which made it tougher to beat the lineup trains in cash games. The example lineups I offered up used two of the three and cashed on FanDuel and Yahoo, but left me out of the money on Draft Kings. It makes sense, actually when you see that more of the masses play on DK than the other sites and those masses are the ones buying their lineups. 

We'll continue to fight against the lineup trains, but in all honesty, I'm not really planning on playing much on DK anymore. Simply put, the pricing structure on FD and Yahoo are a lot better to work with and they don't force you into bad plays. If you build a lineup you're happy with on FanDuel, go ahead and try to use the same players in a lineup on DK. It's practically impossible. The way they set their prices, they are basically forcing you into using some random pay-down you really don't want to be using in cash games. That, in turn, favors those who play multiple lineups, use algorithms and play DFS like a day trader and not as someone who actually does research and game breakdowns. Yes, those people do play on FD and Yahoo as well, but the sites don't just hand them the advantage with bad pricing. DK does it because those players, the max-entry people, are their bread and butter. That's where they make most of their money. It's why you don't see them cracking down on the top players like Chipotle Addict. As long as those whales are playing, the sites are making money and it's a slap in the face to the little guy.

And that's my recommendation to you this week. Play where you are winning. If you find that you have greater success on DK, then go right ahead. But if you win on FD and struggle on DK, save yourself the money and stick to one site. I will always play the example lineups I post on the site, strictly to see how they do during the games, but I will only invest the minimum on DK because I don't need to be throwing my own money away like that. OK, lecture time is over. Let's get to the Watch List. 

Before we move forward, let's take a quick look back…

So what exactly did last week's Playbook deliver? As always, we like to check in to ensure we remain on the right path.

Scoring The Playbook Week 10

The main theme of the Playbook this week is “missed it…by that much”.  The Playbook had Amari Cooper not CeeDee Lamb. The Dart Board had Brandon Bolden saying to only play if Stevenson was out.  Well, Stevenson was the play that worked out for those at the top of DFS leaderboards.  With a low scoring week, you had to have him.  D’Ernest Johnson was explained to be the best cash game option along with Mark Ingram and they both delivered cash game victories for those who played them.

Here are some other highlights:

  • The aggregate of all players returned 2.3X Value
  • Running backs in the Playbook averaged more than 18 points with a 2.9X Value
  • Six of the eight running backs in the Playbook delivered 2X Value
  • 80% of the DSTs returned more than 2X Value
  • The highest score on Draft Kings with players in the Playbook & Dart Board was 182.2

For any newcomers this week:

“If you give a man a fish, he’ll eat for a day. If you teach a man to fish, he’ll eat for a lifetime.”

We take this adage to heart when it comes to playing NFL DFS. The Fantasy Alarm Playbook isn’t just about handing you a list of players and a lineup to use each week. It is designed to help you learn to be a better DFS player. It’s about teaching you the process used in selecting which players to scout and, eventually, which ones to use.

Therefore, we will begin each week with the Weekly NFL DFS Watch List which is designed to keep tabs on marquee names, chalk plays and, of course, the weekly bargains who may not see the same coverage and exposure. This piece will be continuously updated throughout the week, based on the most recent news and injuries which means you may see a name or two removed as we get closer to kick-off. You may also see a few late-week additions who pique our interest for some reason too, and by the end of the week, this Watch List will eventually become your Playbook. Again, it’s about teaching you the process.

Also remember, the DFS Watch List focuses on the Sunday Main Slate. We cover Thursday, Monday and Sunday Night Football via Showdown slate coverage.


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