The NFL delivers a primetime matchup from Southern California for our SNF DFS Picks to wrap up another NFL Sunday. Week 10 delivers an AFC matchup as we dissect our Steelers vs. Chargers DFS picks for Sunday Night Football on DraftKings and FanDuel. Both teams are currently in the AFC playoff picture. The Steelers enter Week 10 with control of the AFC North while the Chargers are holding on to a Wild Card spot since the Denver Broncos are riding a rather surprising seven-game win streak. This game is looking pretty tight for the latest Sunday Night Football DFS Playbook so let’s take a look at the top plays and lineup building strategies for our winning lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel!

 

 

 

Steelers vs. Chargers DFS Picks & Preview: Sunday Night Football, 11/9

We get a classic AFC matchup as these two teams met in the regular season and playoffs multiple times after these organization drafted Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger to their respect rosters back in 2004. Times have changed, yet these two organizations are within the AFC playoff picture as noted above.

The Steelers sit atop the AFC North and despite having a two-game lead on the division with eight games under their belt, they’re not even the favorites to win the division. It looks like the sportsbooks are projecting the Baltimore Ravens to make a run in the second half of the season now that Lamar Jackson is back under center. But Aaron Rodgers has exceeded expectations for the Steelers in his first year with the team. The passing totals aren’t off the charts, but he’s protecting the ball and moving the team down the field and putting the offense in position to put up points. The offensive line has rounded into form nicely as well for the veteran quarterback.

The Los Angeles Chargers play in the loaded division of the AFC West. The Denver Broncos earned their seventh straight victory on Thursday Night Football against the Las Vegas Raiders. But they only put up 10 points. The Broncos have an elite defense, but the Chargers have won all three of their divisional games so far while Denver has four remaining, similar to the Kansas City Chiefs. Given how inconsistent the Broncos have looked, and with the Rashee Rice suspension in the rearview mirror for Kansas City, the AFC West feels wide open halfway through the season. With that said, this game has some significance for both organizations and hopefully it delivers as we wind down after the NFL DFS Week 10 main slate. Let’s dig into the matchups and data for our Steelers vs. Chargers DFS picks!

 

 

 

Steelers vs. Chargers SNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Steelers +3 (-118)
    • Chargers -3 (-102)
  • Money Line:
    • Steelers (+136)
    • Chargers (-162)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 45.5 (-105)
    • Under 45.5 (-115)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Steelers +2.5 (-102)
    • Chargers -2.5 (-120)
  • Money Line:
    • Steelers (+130)
    • Chargers (-154)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 44.5 (-112)
    • Under 44.5 (-108)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Steelers vs. Chargers SNF, November 9th

For our Steelers vs. Chargers DFS picks, this game will be played in a controlled environment so there are no weather concerns.

 

Steelers vs. Chargers Injuries: Sunday Night Football Week 10

The Steelers have already ruled out Scotty Miller and Isaac Seumalo on offense. Defensively they’ll be without Jabrill Peppers and Cole Holcomb while Cory Trice Jr. is questionable ahead of this matchup.

The secondary for Los Angeles is dealing with a few injuries as well. Deane Leonard and Benjamin St-Juste are both questionable while Tarheeb Still is doubtful to play. The Chargers lost Joe Alt for the season and the offensive line will also be without Bobby Hart. The Chargers did acquire Trevor Penning earlier in the week, but it doesn’t seem as if he’ll get the start after logging just a couple practices. He could still find his way into some reps if the Chargers offensive line continues to struggle.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers - DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $13,800

He’s the most expensive player on both sites and for good reason. He’s playing at a high level and runs one of the best offenses in the NFL. This matchup isn’t without its warts, but we’ll address those shortly. Of the two quarterbacks in this matchup, Herbert probably offers more upside.

In his last two games he’s rushed for 119 yards and a touchdown. It’s come at the expense of his passing volume (54 total pass attempts), but despite that, he still has five touchdowns through the air. Per DraftKings scoring, he’s gone over 26 fantasy points in three straight games and he’s posted less than 18 points just twice this season. Among qualified quarterbacks he’s 14th in EPA/Play (0.13), 9th in success rate (51.3%), and 4th in turnover-worthy play rate (1.5%) per Sam Hoppen. He’s even 5th in clean-pocket success rate (60.5%) but that’s probably where we have an issue.

The clean pockets are few and far between. Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, his prized tackles that excel in pass protection, are both done for the year. Herbert is getting hit and sacked at a high rate and it almost makes you wonder if he can last a whole season with this porous pass protection. The Chargers currently rank 30th in pressure rate allowed (36.4%) and 29th in pass block win rate (55%). That likely explains why Herbert has been scrambling more and racking up the rushing totals, but the Steelers rank 4th in blitz rate (33.7%) and 3rd in pass rush win rate (48%).

If looking for a DraftKings Pick6 recommendation, I do like the over on his rushing yards (25.5) as of Saturday night. He’s gone over that mark in three straight games and four of his last five.

Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers - DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $12,200

The target distribution has really plateaued among the LAC wide receiver room but again, we touched on the drop in volume for Herbert amidst the offensive line woes for the Bolts. After a slow and sluggish start to the year, McConkey has bounced back and has provided the fantasy goods for our fantasy football rosters.

In general, the Chargers wide receivers can be upgraded in this matchup. As Mike Clay of ESPN pointed out earlier this week, the Steelers defense is allowing the most targets, yards, receptions, and fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. They’ve given up 50+ fantasy points to opposing receivers in three of their last five games. However, you won’t see Keenan Allen featured in this article because he’s coming off a game where he had a route share just barely over 50%.

I’m taking a stand and going light on Allen. I love targeting McConkey but we do need either a touchdown or the 100-yard bonus in this matchup to see him hit the optimal lineup as our Captain.

DK Metcalf, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $11,400

Metcalf is probably a better play and point-per-dollar option on DraftKings than FanDuel. He’s certainly had some underwhelming performances this season, but he dealt with shadow coverage in four matchups this year during Weeks 1, 3, 7, and 8.

He probably won’t draw shadow coverage as we preview our SNF DFS picks. That’s certainly a positive but the Chargers have only allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Metcalf’s also coming off a week where he saw just four targets (0.13 targets per route run) and on the season he’s averaging just 0.21 TPRR which isn’t elite by any means.

But he’s still the WR1 in this offense and he’s cheaper than Omarion Hampton for some reason, and Hampton won’t even play this game. Metcalf has still scored in five-of-eight games this season. It’s a tough matchup and I don’t like playing him in many season-long leagues, but this is a Showdown slate where I cannot completely write off his upside.

Oronde Gadsden, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $7,800

I do love when a $7K option emerges as a Captain candidate for our SNF DFS picks. Gadsden has 377 receiving yards over his last four games and that’s the most ever for a rookie tight end in a four-game span, and he’s the only rookie tight end to ever have four straight games with 65+ receiving yards. He has 27 targets in that stretch and he’s caught 24 of them with a pair of touchdowns under his belt.

The matchup is pretty solid as well. The Steelers have allowed six touchdowns to opposing tight ends in their last seven games. They have also allowed two separate tight ends (Tucker Kraft and Hunter Henry) to score two touchdowns in a game against them. So in two-of-eight games for Pittsburgh this season, the opposing team’s tight end was optimal at Captain. Volume is trending in his favor and the matchup gives him a pretty high ceiling.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $11,800

Rodgers has had a career renaissance in what could be his final season in the NFL. I use “renaissance” rather loosely but so far through eight games he has 17 touchdowns but he’s just shy of 1,700 passing yards. He also lacks the rushing upside that Herbert has so I don’t particularly love him as a Captain on DraftKings. But he obviously correlates well with any Steelers skill position player at Captain.

Rodgers is really only taking some deep shots with DK Metcalf and occasionally Calvin Austin. But he does rank 32nd among qualified quarterbacks in average depth of target (5.7). But there are some positives as he ranks 12th in completion percentage over expected (3.3%) and 11th in turnover-worthy play rate (2.5%).

The Steelers also have a young offensive line that’s made significant strides in potentially the organization’s lone season with Rodgers as they rank 2nd in pressure rate allowed (23.7%) and Rodgers has only been sacked six times in his last six games. He’s a good Flex option for our SNF DFS picks.

Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $8,400

Jaylen Warren is a good player. He’s getting volume and has multiple receptions in each of the seven games he’s appeared in. But I just don’t know if he has the break-the-slate kind of ceiling that other players in this game have. And I know that I’m saying this the week after he scored two touchdowns. But even in that game he averaged under 2.00 yards per carry and had a pair of receptions for -2 yards. He finished with 16.9 fantasy points in PPR formats and a dozen of those points came from the touchdowns.

The Chargers can be run on, however. If you look at their game log they’ve allowed a total of 122 rushing yards in their last two games to the Tennessee Titans and Minnesota Vikings. But those were games the Chargers won easily. In five straight games from Weeks 5-7 they allowed 118+ rushing yards to five straight opponents. I am a Jaylen Warren fan and like him as a core play, but I just don’t have the confidence to play him at Captain where we likely need 25+ fantasy points from our Captain.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Kimani Vidal, RB, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $10,600

Not a ton of confidence in Kimani Vidal but alas, there’s no Omarion Hampton for our Week 10 Steelers vs. Chargers DFS picks and he’s working with 12+ touches in four straight games. Over his last four games, Vidal has two very strong performances and two horrible performances. But at least we can note that the Steelers rank 28th in stuffed run rate (15.4%) and 26th in defensive EPA/Rush (0.01).

Now the big concern is possibly the emergence of a cheaper running back who did cut into Vidal’s snaps and workload. We’ll get to Jaret Patterson later in the article as he may be a better point-per-dollar option.

Vidal’s ceiling still has to keep him in play for our SNF DFS picks. He’s collected the 100-yard bonus and scored in his good games. But we can’t go all in and lock him in because he had some duds in Weeks 7 and 9 that we cannot ignore.

Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $7,600 | FanDuel: $9,200

He’s a bit dependent on touchdowns but he still has six in eight games this season. Last week he re-appeared on the stat sheet catching four-of-five targets for 53 yards and a touchdown. He is looking at a mix of matchups against Joey Porter, Darius Slay, and/or Jalen Ramsey, but we’ve already touched on how bad the secondary has been for Pittsburgh. It’s a pretty significant smash spot for QJ if he can haul in a nice catch-and-run and possibly find the end zone. The nature of QJ’s floor-and-ceiling arguably make him the kind of play you use at Captain or don’t use at all. Awfully hard to consider him a core play with his variance, but we love the ceiling.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $5,800

It’s not pretty, but Gainwell does have involvement in the passing attack for Pittsburgh. He only has 17 total carries over the last four games since the team’s Bye week. But he does have 14 receptions in that span. I can’t say the floor nor the ceiling are very impressive. But he does benefit if this game lends itself to a negative game script for Pittsburgh. But among our SNF DFS picks, there are arguably better value options whether you’re seeking explosive upside or touchdown equity.

The Pittsburgh Steelers Tight Ends

You really just have to pick your poison among these three. Or if you’re building multiple lineups, be sure to mix exposure and diversify the ownership portfolio for this NFL DFS Sunday Night Football Showdown slate.

For Pat Freiermuth, he has three straight games with at least three receptions, and he’s found the end zone three times in that span. But despite six catches in his last two games, he only has 40 receiving yards. But he did pop in Week 7 for 111 receiving yards and a pair of scores.

Jonnu Smith may very well be Arthur Smith’s favorite option of the three just given their familiarity with each other. He has 11 receptions on 18 targets in four games since Pittsburgh’s Bye week, but he’s failed to go over 30 yards in any of those games.

And lastly, Darnell Washington is the most boom-or-bust of the group. He’s probably the least agile of the trio but he’s also incredibly difficult to bring down because of his immense size (6’7” and 264 pounds). He might have the best floor of the three with at least 8.3 fantasy points in three of his last four games.

It’s difficult to pinpoint which one we like the most because there’s an argument for all three. I won’t dwell on trying to pick the one that scores because they’re priced similarly on DraftKings, so you just want to spread exposure around and hope you land on the right one for your lineups.

Jaret Patterson, RB, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $2,800 | FanDuel: $4,800

The Chargers elevated Patterson to the active roster once again so he’ll serve as the RB2 or arguably the 1B to the 1A of Kimani Vidal. Patterson has seen 11 and 9 carries respectively the last two games for Los Angeles. Despite the lack of production, there’s value to be had here at such a cheap price tag.

Patterson averaged 2.33 yards after contact per attempts last week while Vidal was at just 1.42 so if the Chargers are lacking confidence in Vidal as a workhorse player, then we can play Patterson for some cheap production. And if Patterson manages to find the end zone, he’s likely hitting the optimal lineup as a cheap punt.

Tre’ Harris, WR, Las Vegas Raiders – DraftKings: $2,400 | FanDuel: $4,000

Harris is my favorite punt option among our Steelers vs. Chargers DFS picks because I really like some of the recent trends. For starters, he has at least two receptions in four straight games. At this price tag, he’s providing a decent floor if he can get some yardage with a few catches. I’ve spoken in previous Showdown Playbooks of his absurd production in his final year of college despite getting injured.

We can also hang our hat on the fact that he’s worked his way into a 33.3% route share over the past two weeks and he’s slowly cutting into Keenan Allen’s reps. At this cheap price tag, he’s among my favorite value options on the slate.

As of Saturday night, I’m not too enamored with many of his prop lines for DraftKings Pick6, but I’d take the over on 11.5 receiving yards if I had to identify one to go with.

 

 

 

SNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

As of Saturday, this game is projected to be close. The Chargers are only favored by a field goal at home. In theory, they should have the better offense by a country mile. However, the offensive line is absolutely atrocious. We’re halfway through the season and he’s already been sacked 28 times. On average, Herbert’s being hit 8.9 times per game which is the third-most among qualified quarterbacks in the last 20 years. The losses of Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt are weighing rather heavily. The recent acquisition of Trevor Penning gives me very little confidence because Penning has had maturity and disciplinary issues arguably since his first day of training camp with the New Orleans Saints as a rookie. Even the Tennessee Titans were able to sack Herbert six times last week. Naturally, the Pittsburgh Steelers are very much in play for our SNF DFS picks.

I don’t have as much confidence in the Los Angeles Chargers D/ST, but I can’t write them off completely. The Chargers played very well in Weeks 8 and 9 against the Minnesota Vikings and Tennessee Titans. But those offenses feature young quarterbacks needing more experience. Aaron Rodgers is obviously no spring chicken that’ll take as many sacks nor commit costly turnovers. In fact, the Pittsburgh offensive line has come on strong this year, as they rank 2nd in the NFL in pressure rate allowed (23.7%). Both D/ST’s are in play but it feels like the Steelers, even as the road underdog, will have plenty of shots at getting pressure on Herbert and maybe force multiple turnovers.

We have a pair of kickers for our Steelers vs. Chargers DFS picks who are averaging double-digit fantasy points. Cameron Dicker has seen a dozen field goal attempts in his last four games while he’s made four from 40+ yards out and 12 total extra point attempts. There’s a great floor for Dicker who has returned at least eight fantasy points in six-of-nine games this season.

Chris Boswell is as reliable as he’s ever been and arguably a better option. Over his last four games since the team’s Bye week, he’s seen 11 total field goal attempts and he’s made 10 of them, nine of which have come from 40+ yards out and he’s made all 10 extra point attempts in that span. If I was to rank the D/ST’s and kickers I’d put them in the order of Boswell, Steelers D/ST, Dicker, Chargers D/ST.

 

 

 

Steelers vs. Chargers DFS Player Pool: SNF, 11/9

Player Pool

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