The second half of the NFL season officially gets underway tonight as the Baltimore Ravens head down to Miami for their Week 10 match-up against the Dolphins. Miami finally stopped the bleeding last week with a win over the Texans, ending a seven-game losing streak, and will continue to try and move forward with Jacoby Brissett likely under center as their starting quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, continues to nurse a finger injury. The Fins are saying Tua is a game-time decision, but it seems unlikely with the short week here. Meanwhile, the Ravens are coming off a big comeback win in overtime against the Vikings and have now won six of their last seven, en route to another year of dominance in the AFC.
Now before we begin, please take a moment to understand what exactly you are getting yourself into by playing single-game Showdown Slates. We love to have some skin in the game, for sure, but these slates are, for all intents and purposes, a lottery ticket. Sure, there are times when the chalk hits and everyone shares in the prizes, but, more often than not, you need to hit on that random dart-throw that differentiates your lineup from that of the herd in order to claim the top prize. As a result, we encourage you to play responsibly and not over-invest. Stick to the GPP contests (single-entry preferred), don’t blow your whole bankroll, and understand that, unless you are a max-entry player, you should prioritize having fun.
OK. Lecture over. Let’s get to tonight’s action.
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins
Spread: Ravens -7.5
Weather: Thunderstorms with temperatures in the mid-70s; winds SSE 7 mph
Latavius Murray, RB – ankle (doubtful)
Sammy Watkins, WR – thigh (questionable)
Nick Boyle, TE – knee (questionable)
Patrick Mekari, RT – ankle (doubtful)
Brandon Williams, NT – shoulder (questionable)
Tua Tagovailoa, QB – finger (questionable – game-time decision)
DVOA Defensive Rankings
vs Pass: 23rd
vs Run: 12th
vs Pass: 22nd
vs Run: 18th
**Please note that players not listed below are not necessarily a complete fade and any player listed can certainly be used as the MVP/Captain. These are merely suggestions for players to use when setting Showdown lineups.
Lamar Jackson, QB BAL – Jackson continues to dominate at the quarterback position thanks to his rushing capability and the Ravens’ lack of a true ground game. He’s averaging 75 rushing yards per game and is coming off his second 100-yard effort. Add that to an improved passing attack where he is averaging 276 passing yards per game with 13 touchdowns through the air and you’ve got everything you…and everyone else…wants in a captain.
Marquise Brown, WR BAL – The Dolphins cover corners have not been strong this year and that goes for both the outside and the slot. Brown lines up all over the field so expect John Harbaugh and Greg Roman to find the mis-matched coverage throughout the night. Brown always finds a way to get open downfield for a big score and tonight won’t be any different.
Mark Andrews, TE BAL – If you want to stay with Baltimore but need to pay down a little at the top spot, then Andrews certainly makes for a fantastic play. Miami ranks 28th in DVOA against the tight end, allowing an average of 77.8 receiving yards and 14.1 fantasy points (ninth-most) per game to the position. Let’s also not forget the eight red zone targets over the last five games.
Mike Gesicki, TE MIA – If you’re looking to save even more at the top spot and go a little contrarian, then Gesicki is the move. The Ravens have struggled against the tight end all season, ranking 22nd in DVOA against the position while allowing almost 80 receiving yards and the second-most fantasy points per game to the position.
Rashod Bateman, WR BAL – He’s the darling of the fantasy community and has been serviceable in the three games he’s played thus far. He’s seen 20 targets which he’s turned into 12 catches for an average of 53.7 yards per game, though he has yet to find the end zone and has just one red zone target. Still, he’s garnering attention while Sammy Watkins is sidelined and should continue to perform at a strong level.
Jaylen Waddle, WR MIA – Waddle spends most of his time working out of the slot which also happens to be a weakness of the Ravens who rank 15th in DVOA against the slot-receiver and allow an average of 57.6 receiving yards per game to them. Slot-corner Tavon Young has had his struggles throughout the year and doesn’t match up well, at least on paper, against the Dolphins rookie.
Jacoby Brissett, QB MIA – He was serviceable during his time under center this season and had some decent passing days against Tampa Bay and Indianapolis. This match-up is a little tougher, but should be able to move the ball through the air with short passes to Waddle and Gesicki. Brissett also has the ability to run one in on his own, so with the Ravens allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position, he’s definitely worth a look. If Tua does manage to play, you can give him some consideration, but it's going to be difficult to trust his accuracy given the nature of the injury.
Myles Gaskin, RB MIA – The Ravens may only be giving up an average of 91.1 rushing yards per game, but they’ve allowed nine rushing touchdowns this season and nose tackle Brandon Williams is still banged-up. The Ravens also rank 31st in DVOA against running back pass-plays, allowing nearly 60 yards per game to them. Gaskin saw six targets from Brissett last week and should continue to see a number of check-downs and designed screens.
Devonta Freeman, RB BAL – We’re moving into some ugly territory here, but you can’t deny the fact that Freeman has been the leader of this backfield with Latavius Murray sidelined and he’s responded well with touchdowns in each of his last three games. You won’t see a dominating performance here, but the Fins have allowed an average of 111 rushing yards per game this season with nine rushing touchdowns allowed.
Le’Veon Bell, RB BAL – Another ugly choice here, but Bell saw an increase in touches this past week and has two touchdowns in his last three games. Again, the Ravens backs don’t rack up the yardage, but they are routinely called upon once the Ravens get inside the green zone.
Devin Duvernay, WR BAL – When the Ravens go into three-receiver sets, Duvernay usually works out of the slot which is a serious weakness for the Dolphins as Nik Needham struggles with faster receivers. He won’t see more than a few targets, but with last week’s late touchdown, he increases the trust Jackson needs in him to expand his role.
Mack Hollins, WR MIA – The Miami receiving corps is not looking good right now and Hollins and Albert Wilson are right about the same as far as a dart-throw goes for those setting multiple lineups. Hollins has the speed to stretch the field and the size to get those jump-balls inside the end zone.
Are you done swimming with the sharks on Draft Kings and FanDuel? There is plenty of money to be won playing DFS over on Yahoo and we’ve got some bonus cash for you over there. Just go to fantasyalarm.com/yahoo and use the promo code ALARM for an immediate $25 bonus of contest credits on your first deposit.