We’ve made it to the final race of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season! On Sunday we’ll name the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Champion at Phoenix Raceway and this could very well be the end of the current playoff format given a lot of news, rumors, and rumblings on social media over the last few weeks. And in 2026 NASCAR will be returning to Homestead for the final race of the season.

As far as this season goes, it all comes down to Phoenix. Joe Gibbs Racing is represented by Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe as their championship contenders. Hendrick Motorsports will have Kyle Larson and William Byron vying for the title. Despite the big names in contention, these four drivers have just one championship among them (Kyle Larson – 2021) so we could be looking at a first-time champion. Let’s take a look at the NASCAR DFS picks and strategies for Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series Championship race from Phoenix!

 

 

 

Phoenix Raceway

Phoenix Raceway once again plays host for Championship Weekend as we saw Corey Heim claim the championship in the Craftsman Truck Series on Friday night while the Xfinity Series race is being run at the time of publishing. This track is certainly unique. It qualifies as a short, flat track but the layout and configuration are unlike any other on the schedule. It features a dog leg where we’ll see the field fan out as they will go five-to-seven cars wide in order to gain track position. Track position is certainly important as well because this is one of those “clean air is king” tracks. Longer green flag runs can certainly be a bit boring and may not produce the best racing, but we’ll see if any drama can unfold Sunday as we crown a new champion that won’t come from Team Penske this time around.

We did see NASCAR race at Phoenix earlier this year and we really shouldn’t put too much emphasis on that race. We need to remember that NASCAR ran that race with a softer tire compound option that teams could use. Ryan Preece got off cycle early and was the first to put the softer tires on. That strategic move helped him gain track position early and he finished with 42 fastest laps, 34 laps led, and he was easily optimal because of his strategy. But we don’t have the softer tire compound coming into play for this race so we really can’t dig into Phoenix-1 when trying to analyze this race and build our lineups.

We do see NASCAR run on plenty of short tracks in this aero package. So when looking at the sample data from this season we can look at tracks like Martinsville, Richmond, New Hampshire, Gateway, and Iowa to an extent.

 

 

 

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: NASCAR Cup Series Championship

My lone concern with these practice notes is that they’re from Friday afternoon, nearly 48 hours before the actual race. NASCAR gave drivers a 50-minute practice session on Friday, followed by qualifying on Saturday, and then the race is Sunday afternoon. So a lot can change with the cars sitting idle more than a usual race weekend. I still think the data and practice speeds are informative and tell us who may have nailed the setup. But it won’t surprise me at all if there were some cars that struggled after looking good on Friday.

Now there were some significant tire issues among the Toyotas and the Chevrolets on Friday, which is funny since there are no Fords in the Championship Four, and they didn’t have too many issues. Chase Briscoe had a flat tire and a suspension issue that needed to be addressed. He only ran 24 total laps in practice while the other three championship drivers all ran over 60. Hamlin’s crew chief didn’t express too much concern over the issues that Briscoe and Christopher Bell had with tires. But among the rest of the field, A.J. Allmendinger had two tires go down and he wrecked badly with the second one. Daniel Suarez, Riley Herbst, Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson, and possibly Chase Elliott also took on flat tires. Larson did scrub the wall in practice, but it was light cosmetic damage. None of the championship drivers failed tech inspection on Saturday.

 

 

 

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Top Tier DFS Picks

Denny Hamlin – DraftKings: $12,000 | FanDuel: $14,000

Very heavy price tag for Hamlin this week but it does feel like a lot of the vibes and storylines are about him potentially winning his first Cup Series Championship. He’s accomplished just about all you can as a Cup Series driver, with the exception of winning a driver’s championship at the highest level. And on a more personal level, he’s even acknowledged this is probably the last time he thinks his father will be able to see him win as well.

Hamlin does have two career wins at Phoenix, but mind you, the last came back in 2019 and this track has had some cosmetic changes over the years. There are some mechanical concerns because the Toyota camp experienced some engine failures last week at Martinsville. Hamlin was one of those victims after he blew up and finished 35th. But he dominated the first Martinsville race this year with a win and 274 laps led and he won at Gateway from the pole in the playoffs. He also finished second in the first Phoenix race this year.

Overall, the practice speeds looked fine, but the tire issue gives me some pause for the Toyotas. At the end of the day, this is arguably his best chance to secure a driver’s title, so I’d be a fool to leave him out of this week’s NASCAR DFS picks, especially since he’s starting on the pole.

Kyle Larson – DraftKings: $11,500 | FanDuel: $13,000

Awfully hard to write off Kyle Larson any given week even if it’s been over five months since he’s gone to victory lane. He’s finished in the top four in four of his last five races at Phoenix and he won this race back in 2021 to claim his lone NASCAR Cup Series Championship.

While Larson hasn’t won since Kansas in the second weekend of May, he’s been fine in the playoffs and registering strong finishes. The first round of the playoffs were tough, but in five of the last six races he’s finished 7th or better. The one track he finished poorly at was Talladega which makes sense because he doesn’t have the greatest resume on superspeedways. But he was 12th at Gateway with over 50 laps led, 7th at New Hampshire, and he was top five last week at Martinsville. He even had back-to-back runner-up finishes at the Roval and Vegas.

He’s arguably the best pure driver in the field and he may be flying under the radar simply because he hasn’t won in nearly six months. But he doesn’t even need to win the race to be crowned champion on Sunday. But it doesn’t hurt that the track history has been solid for him.

William Byron – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $13,500

Last week was the ideal scenario for Hendrick Motorsports. Byron was able to secure the win and qualify for the Championship Four while Kyle Larson got in via playoff points. Of all drivers in the NextGen era at Phoenix, Byron has the second-best average finish (8.0) and he has a win here from the spring of 2023. In three of the five races at Phoenix dating back to 2023, Byron has led 60+ laps.

Byron only has three wins on the season. You can make the argument he should’ve maybe had five or six wins given how dominant he was at Darlington-1, Charlotte, Michigan, and Vegas-2. But two of his three wins include Iowa (141 laps led) and Martinsville-2 last week (304 laps led). There’s definitely plenty of win equity with this play for Sunday’s race and he’s had some strong dominator performances as well.

Chase Briscoe – DraftKings: $10,500 | FanDuel: $12,500

As we mentioned following the practice-to-qualifying table, Briscoe was one of the few drivers in practice that experienced some tire pressure issues so he didn’t get as good of a look with his car as the last three drivers did. Briscoe won the very first NextGen era race at Phoenix back in the spring of 2022 with over 100 laps led. But this past spring he wrecked and in this race a year ago, his last performance with Stewart-Haas Racing, he finished 29th.

He’s really backed up Joe Gibbs Racing’s decision to have him drive the 19-car. He collected three wins (Pocono, Darlington-2, and Talladega-2) with three runner-up finishes as well. There is some concern because, like Hamlin, he also experienced engine failure last week at Martinsville. But he’s still certainly worthy of racing for his first driver’s championship and he should be in our player pool because he may come in as the leverage play among the Championship Four drivers.

Now we do have some other top tier drivers to consider as the Penske boys (Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney) obviously have win juice here since they’ve combined to win the last three Cup Series championships. Blaney has the best average finish at Phoenix in the NextGen era while Logano has two wins here in addition to dominator potential. But we also shouldn’t be sleeping on other plays like Christopher Bell and Chase Elliott who offer up position differential.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Tyler Reddick – DraftKings: $9,300 | FanDuel: $10,000

Reddick could very well go overlooked for a couple reasons. He hasn’t won this year and most of the field will try to pay up for dominator points for this race with 300+ laps. Reddick starts outside the top 20. Even Christopher Bell who is more expensive will probably draw more ownership because of his wins at Phoenix.

But Reddick has finished 11th or better in five straight races and he was top five in 10-and-15 lap metrics in practice. In seven NextGen races at Phoenix he has an average finish of 12.4 and he finished in the top six in three of those races. This past spring he finished 20th but finished top five in each of the first two stages. He’s been dealing with a lot in his personal life of late so a win or a good finish would go a long way. Of all the non-championship drivers in the field, he might be my pick to win.

Chris Buescher – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $9,000

The starting spot is going to relegate Buescher to just GPP contests for our NASCAR DFS picks. But over his last four races at Phoenix, he has four finishes in the top 10, three in the top five, and he was the runner-up here in the spring of 2024. The dominator potential is hard to gauge, but he does have a win at Richmond in the NextGen era and RFK Racing is still searching for their first win of 2025, and this is their last chance since this is the finale.

The big concern is the performances on the comparable tracks this year haven’t been great. Even last week he finished 29th at Martinsville and he was 18th at New Hampshire earlier in the playoffs. The practice speeds left a lot to be desired but if we’re leaning into track history, he’s worthy of consideration in tournaments because ownership won’t be very high.

Bubba Wallace – DraftKings: $7,700 | FanDuel: $8,500

The tire pressure issues that dogged the Toyota camp in practice are concerning but Bubba has come on strong this year on the comparable tracks as we noted in last week’s NASCAR DFS Playbook for Martinsville. He didn’t have a great run last week at the Paperclip but he finished 18th with three position differential points and seven fastest laps.

The track history at Phoenix is pretty respectable as well. He wrecked this past spring but in the last two championship races at Phoenix he’s finished in the top 10. In the 2023 and 2024 spring races he finished 14th and 16th. There likely won’t be an ownership discount given where he’s starting and the practice speeds indicate he might have the upside for a top 12 finish.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Ryan Preece – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $6,500

I’m honestly surprised Preece’s price tag didn’t adjust after his performance last week at Martinsville. He was among our value plays for the Xfinity 500 where he started P18 and finished 6th with 30(!) fastest laps. He returned a healthy 63.5 fantasy points on DraftKings.

He laid down a top five lap in practice and was 18th in 10-lap averages and top 12 in 10-lap averages as well. His track history at Phoenix obviously isn’t as comparable as it is to his teammate, Chris Buescher. However, he does have three top 15 finishes in his last three races at this track and he was optimal here in the spring because of his choice to throw the soft tire compound on so early. He won’t have that option for this race, but he has similar upside to last week’s race from this P21 starting spot.

Ty Gibbs – DraftKings: $6,800 | FanDuel: $6,800

Gibbs should probably come in with heavy ownership (over 20%) in tournaments because he’s cheap, he’s in a JGR car, he had top 15 speed in practice, and he starts P25. I’m really not entirely sure how much more analysis is needed. He still doesn’t have a win in the Cup Series and it likely won’t come Sunday. But for our NASCAR DFS picks, we can certainly get exposure to this play if looking for value.

This track does carry a lot of personal weight for Joe Gibbs’ grandson. Gibbs won here three years ago in the Xfinity Series to claim the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship. But hours later his father surprisingly passed away. In the Cup Series he only has one top 20 finish in five races here and that was when he finished 3rd in the spring of 2024 with 57 laps led. So it’s no guarantee he even finishes well but he was 12th last week at Martinsville and grabbed a top 10 finish earlier in the playoffs at Gateway.

The Value Options Offering Position Differential

The header says it all. Honestly, I couldn’t just pick one or two to close out the article. We can start with Michael McDowell and A.J. Allmendinger. Respectively, these two start in the last row. Both are good cash game plays simply for the position differential. I prefer McDowell who is $600 more on DraftKings because he is probably a bit more reliable. He finished 8th at New Hampshire and 14th at Gateway while he also finished 12th in the first Martinsville race. Both McDowell and Allmendinger will draw ownership but I’m hoping that leaves these next drivers slightly under-owned if a lot of DFS lineups simply stack the last row with McDowell/Dinger and spend up elsewhere.

The likes of Zane Smith, John Hunter Nemechek, and Todd Gilliland certainly intrigue me. They obviously don’t offer the position differential upside of McDowell and Allmendinger. However, there’s certainly some upside. Zane starts P22, JHN rolls off P28, and Gilly starts in row 15 (P30). Gilliland has finished top 10 in back-to-back races. JHN has had a great season even if the last handful of races haven’t gone well. Zane starts with track position and still has top 10 potential. So these value PD options are pretty easy to read. McDowell and Allmendinger can be played in all formats. But I like these three as tournament pivots.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

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