The NASCAR Cup Series has just three races left in the regular season before we kick off the 10-week playoff stretch through the fall. Three races to go and we have three playoff spots available based on points. It does feel like there are a few road course specialists looking to win their way into the playoffs on Sunday. Those drivers include Michael McDowell and A.J. Allmendinger but we cannot disregard others.

Last week saw Brad Keselowski have easily the best car all day at Iowa Speedway. But after all the excitement of last week’s short track, and seeing how difficult it was to pass, fuel mileage became the name of the game and it was William Byron who went to victory lane for the second time this year. Byron went on record to say the fuel mileage narrative is a bit of a gimmick by the broadcast teams. And I think that’s ironic considering Byron’s actually lost significant track position late in races this year because he ran out of fuel (Michigan and Indianapolis).

But I digress. We once again turn our attention to another road course as NASCAR heads to upstate New York to Watkins Glen International. Let’s take a look at the drivers and strategies for our NASCAR DFS lineups for Sunday’s race!

 

 

 

Watkins Glen International

A few NASCAR media members like to describe Watkins Glen as the Daytona or Talladega of road courses. It’s not the most technical road course like COTA or what we saw at Mexico City earlier this year. Watkins Glen features far fewer turns but is more of a broader, sweeping road course which generates more speed.

We also saw the Truck and Xfinity Series races on Friday and Saturday, and both contests provided a ton of variance especially in stage three. I did not believe we’d see two chaotic races in a row. Could we possibly see a third? Honestly, nothing would surprise me.

The good news is that at this point in the season, we’ve already seen four road courses (COTA, Mexico City, Chicago, and Sonoma). Shane van Gisbergen has won three of them and he’s easily been the class of the field for those races. More recently, he won Sonoma about a month ago and he led a whopping 97 laps in that race. 

Now I mention SVG starting on the front row because based on the trends table above, he is primed to possess win equity and dominator potential. Four of the last five winners at Watkins Glen all started in the first two rows. The outlier being Chris Buescher from last year’s race who started P24 and went toe-to-toe with SVG in an exciting finish.

And most weeks when we feature the trends table above, the “laps led from drivers in the top 10” row is usually around 55-65%. But this week it’s elevated up to nearly 85%, which should remind us that track position is key. It’s entirely possible that SVG dominates the field once again as the solo dominator. And that will be fine because we only have 90 laps for this race and he is priced WAY up. In the last five races at Watkins Glen, we’ve seen a total of six drivers leads 20+ laps. So you can build your lineups based on position differential for the most part. SVG is still going to draw a lot of exposure because of the win equity and his ability to push for 25+ dominator points in this race.

 

 

 

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends

There’s nothing too surprising that I’m looking to take away from the scoring charts above. FanDuel’s scoring allows for the numbers to be a bit tighter across the board. The P24 spot on the DraftKings chart is certainly inflated because of Chris Buescher’s win from that spot last year.

P20 sticks out as an intriguing starting spot for both sites, especially since Chase Elliott gets that honor today and is returning 40+ fantasy points with a top 10 finish. He’s a two-time winner at Watkins Glen but hasn’t cracked the top 15 in the last two years.

The polesitter has had a lot of success at Watkins Glen as well. SVG isn’t technically on the pole for this race. However, he does start P2 so he’s still on the front row and the general belief is that he should have no trouble getting around Ryan Blaney, who is on the pole.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Go Bowling at The Glen

If you need a reference for who ran in Group A and Group B, I will attach this link courtesy of Ryan with iFantasyRace who breaks them down pretty well.

Practice and qualifying were rather aligned which we don’t say too often. The best cars did qualify well but we do need to disregard the results for Connor Zilisch as his car has been withdrawn. I did think about deleting him from the practice-to-qualifying table entirely but ultimately I settled on leaving them in and here’s why….

Sometimes it’s good to see how all the cars from a team compare in practice speeds. Because this week a lot of people are going to wonder if Justin Haley’s speed is real. And some people will look to their teammates’ speed to judge if the organization nailed the setup with their cars. Michael McDowell (Haley’s teammate) has pretty solid speed and Carson Hocevar’s speed looked okay but he’s not as good on the road courses as McDowell. So for the most part, we can take some shots on Haley based on his practice speed relative to where he qualified.

Zilisch is an elite road course driver and was likely going to post some great results. But looking at his qualifying times next to the other three Trackhouse cars (SVG, Chastain, and Suarez) can at least provide us a little more confidence if we’re going to play those drivers in his place.

 

Go Bowling at The Glen Top Tier DFS Picks

Shane van Gisbergen – DraftKings: $12,700 | FanDuel: $15,000

SVG’s pricing is incredibly aggressive similar to Saturday’s Xfinity Series race. It’s going to be tough to pay off the price tag but when you consider who starts in his immediate vicinity to begin the race, he should get out to the early lead and collect dominator points.

And to that point, this play still carries plenty of win equity considering he won at Sonoma, Mexico City, and Chicago. He was $12,500 for Sonoma and was able to return 87 fantasy points on DraftKings. But keep in mind, he led 97 laps at Sonoma. This race on Sunday has just 90 laps total. So in addition to the win, you need SVG to probably collect about half the dominator points on DraftKings.

SVG ran in Saturday’s Xfinity Series race. And even if you weren’t blown away by his car’s speed, you have to respect and admire his ability to play defense and maintain his position ahead of other cars who were faster. Ultimately, he was wrecked by Connor Zilisch, but it wasn’t really Zilisch’s fault. So I’m not really expecting SVG to have two bad results on consecutive days at a road course.

Analysis isn’t really needed too much for SVG. He’s won three of the four road courses this year. It really boils down to how you make your SVG lineups different. And for what it’s worth, he’s not a “must” play on FanDuel. He’s priced very high at $15,000 and his ceiling is 61.5 points and that’s if he leads every single lap.

Kyle Larson – DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $12,000

It’s not that hard to fit both SVG and Larson in a lineup together on DraftKings. You’re left with $27,100 for the remaining four drivers but you can easily make unique builds.

Larson is a PD play. And he’s also the best driver in the field who is playable most weeks outside of Daytona and Talladega. Larson is a two-time winner at Watkins Glen but he’ll have his hands full getting to victory lane on Sunday. Chris Buescher won from P24 last year, but we typically see the winner of this race coming from the first four rows.

But Larson is still a solid road course driver with three road course wins in the NextGen era. For Sunday we’re simply looking to him to be the superstar that we know he is and move up and finish in the top 10 with a few fastest laps to return 50+ fantasy points to our NASCAR DFS lineups.

William Byron – DraftKings: $9,500 | FanDuel: $11,500

Byron is a fascinating play because he starts P10 (inside the first five rows) so there is some win equity based on how previous races have played out here. Unfortunately, he ran in Group B’s practice session and that group had the worse track position.

That didn’t matter to Byron and his team because despite having the worse conditions he was still laying down outstanding practice speeds. But obviously when it boils down to the actual race, he’ll have a tough time getting in front of SVG. That’s a collective problem among the field.

But Byron, like his Hendrick Motorsports teammate Kyle Larson, has won multiple road course races in the NextGen era. So if the practice speed translates to Sunday’s race then we’re in good shape for Byron to contend for a top four finish and possibly some fastest laps. If SVG busts, then Byron can possibly put himself in a position to win.

Chase Elliott – DraftKings: $9,100 | FanDuel: $11,000

This section was initially going to be for Connor Zilisch but he won Saturday’s Xfinity Series race and subsequently suffered a very unfortunate injury on victory after he fell off his car. He has a broken collarbone that will require surgery but he’s very fortunate to not have suffered anything significant to his head or neck. So Trackhouse Racing withdrew the car he was supposed to run, and we’ll pivot to Chase Elliott.

Long before the NextGen car it was Elliott who was regarded as the best road course driver in the Cup Series alongside Martin Truex Jr. But that was at a time when NASCAR only ran Watkins Glen and Sonoma. So we didn’t have a good look at the more technical tracks and we eventually saw the emergence of other drivers.

Even Elliott has gone on record saying he isn’t that good of a road course driver. He’s always just been the beneficiary of really strong cars put together by Hendrick Motorsports. Alas, the practice speed indicates he has a top 10 car and he has enough experience here to potentially come away with a top five finish. He finished 3rd at both Sonoma and Mexico City, 4th at COTA, and while we may have only finished 16th at Chicago it’s worth remembering that he did have to start at the back of the pack.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Chris Buescher – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $8,800

Buescher is going to be popular on Sunday. He’s the cover boy this week because he won this race last year after starting P24 and he’s always been a rather unheralded road course driver.

Buescher is also starting to feel the pressure because he’s currently holding on to the last playoff spot to get in based on points. And there are drivers outside the playoff picture looking at this race as a chance to get in with a win or they’re all likely going to be reliant on Daytona, which is the final race of the regular season.

Buescher ran in the first practice group but across the entire field he graded out as sixth-fastest in 5, 10, and 15 lap averages. So there’s a good opportunity for him to move up and score well. And even as last year’s winner at Watkins Glen, we can never count him out.

Tyler Reddick – DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $9,200

Reddick has been such a rough read most of the season. When I’ve been higher on him based on practice and qualifying efforts, he struggles during race trim. And when I’ve largely faded him, he’s then come through.

This seems like a week to be in on Reddick but he won’t come at an ownership discount by any means. Reddick qualified P22 which is roughly where the car ran in practice. So while this isn’t a read based on “speed” it’s mostly just to note that this is a PD target in the mid-range.

Reddick has still come through and produced strong results on the road courses this season. He finished 6th at Sonoma, 3rd at Chicago, and 3rd at COTA. And to be fair, he started with much better track position for those races.

But we’re just a few years removed from regarding him as one of the best road course drivers in the Cup Series. So while you don’t go “all in” with this play, you can get exposure and maybe the car shows up for race trim or perhaps a good strategy or chaos can play into his favor.

Ty Gibbs – DraftKings: $8,700 | FanDuel: $9,000

Gibbs is a great GPP option because most will avoid him for PD options starting deeper in the field. Gibbs has been slowly passing the eyeball test of getting better and better each week even if he has finished outside the top 20 in back-to-back races. Remember, the team was making some conservative pit decision late at Indianapolis to secure the In-Season Tournament victory.

Gibbs finished 7th at Sonoma, 2nd at Chicago, and 11th at Mexico City where he led 27 laps. So the road course pedigree is there and we saw him collect plenty of wins on road courses in the Xfinity Series. Gibbs is right outside the playoff picture so while I don’t expect him to win, I expect the team to do everything they can to collect as many points as possible and that would likely mean chasing a victory.

Ryan Preece – DraftKings: $7,600 | FanDuel: $6,200

I’m hoping that Preece’s price tag scares some people away for Sunday’s race. He’s still a value option on FanDuel but his performances at Iowa and Indianapolis have pushed the price up into the mid-$7K range.

Preece’s car wasn’t great in practice but he was able to at least get longer runs in, which we can’t confidently say about nearly half the field. Preece managed to qualify P17 so they look to have made improvements to the car between practice and qualifying and given that he logged a pair of top 12 finishes at Sonoma and Chicago, I think the car will be fine in race trim.

Preece is strictly just a GPP only play. But I like that he comes in with the momentum of back-to-back top five finishes from the Midwest swing. He’s on the outside looking in on the playoff picture and we may only see one RFK Racing car get into the playoffs. Preece wants to make sure he’s that guy.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Todd Gilliland – DraftKings: $6,700 | FanDuel: $5,200

The value options are ugly this week and we really only have Gilliland’s single lap speed and the five-lap average to look at from practice. But fortunately, he was top 10 in both metrics and he offers position differential since he starts outside the top 30.

Gilliland’s not a terrible road course driver as he grabbed a win at COTA a few years back in the Truck Series. But in the Cup Series this year he finished 10th at COTA and was 22nd at Sonoma and Mexico City.

For this race, if he’s going to hit the optimal lineup then he’s going to need a much better finish than 22nd and unfortunately we’re running blind in terms of knowing how good the car is in the longer runs.

John Hunter Nemechek – DraftKings: $6,500 | FanDuel: $5,000

I have such a strong disdain for the value tier this week because I don’t have much confidence in anyone in this range. I’ll start with JHN because Legacy Motor Club has been bad at qualifying all year and he starts P31.

Nemechek did not get a long run in during practice and even during the 5-lap metric he did register, he ranked just inside the top 30.

With JHN, we’re mostly just looking at a driver who gets better as the race progresses. Moreover, this is a driver who has top 15 finishes on a variety of tracks. He finished 15th at Chicago, 6th at Mexico City, and even finished 22nd at COTA for a decent DFS day because he started deep in the field.

Justin Haley – DraftKings: $5,700 | FanDuel: $3,800

The field might be flocking to Justin Haley as a cheap option for tournaments. Haley had great speed in practice even besting the likes of Zilisch, SVG, Buescher, and Larson within his own group session.

The qualifying effort wasn’t great, but he offers position differential from outside the top 20. It’s never great when Justin Haley is chalk but he does have the benefit of having Michael McDowell as his teammate nowadays and McDowell is a very good road ringer.

Cole Custer – DraftKings: $5,300 | FanDuel: $2,800

Custer really intrigues me because, while I hate the value tier this week, he may have sneaky top 20 appeal for a driver starting outside the top 30.

Custer, like Gilliland, didn’t get a long run in practice. But his single lap in practice was top 20 and in the five-lap metric he was top 15. Now he also did run in Group A with the better conditions, but Custer is a driver who grabbed some wins on road courses in the Xfinity Series.

As far as this year goes, we saw him finish 23rd at Sonoma, 8th at Mexico City, and 23rd at COTA. The finishes outside the top 20 aren’t elite, but those can be serviceable for DFS. If he finishes 23rd on Sunday after starting P32 then he’d return 28 points on DK and he may have more of a ceiling than that.

Josh Bilicki – DraftKings: $5,100 | FanDuel: $2,500

The value options are so awful this week that I’m not entirely sure we can write off Josh Bilicki. He’s in the 66-car which is not good by any means. But Bilicki starts dead last in a field of 40 cars. He cannot lose any points for your lineup so he’s locked in for at least one.

If he just puts around and completes laps and keeps the car alive then he can move up and gain positions and if others fail to finish, then he’s chipping away and moving up.

Do we run the risk of playing a driver that doesn’t finish the race? Sure. But Bilicki started P31 in this car at Chicago and he finished 21st. Last year, Bilicki gained 11 spots at Chicago in this car and 9 at the Roval in the playoffs.

So this is a punt play to squeeze in more expensive PD options in addition to SVG and you hope he can maybe finish 28th or better. It’s a very risky play but we’ve seen crazier things happen in NASCAR.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

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