It all comes down to this. The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship will be decided Sunday at Phoenix Raceway — the final race under this playoff format, and the last stop on a wild season.

History says stick with the contenders. In the playoff era, only once has a non-playoff driver won the finale, when Ross Chastain snuck in back in 2023 while Ryan Blaney took the title. Every other year, one of the Championship 4 has owned the desert.

So that’s where the focus is: William Byron, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, and Chase Briscoe. Four drivers, one trophy, and one more shot at glory.

 

 

 

The Favorites

Denny Hamlin (+400 Caesars Sportsbook)

Hamlin’s running out of chances. He’s made the Championship 4 five times and still hasn’t sealed the deal. But Phoenix is one of his better tracks: two career wins, six top-10s in his last ten, and more than 800 laps led here. He’s steady, experienced, and fast enough to win. The question, as always, is whether he can finally get out of his own way.

William Byron (+450 BetMGM Sportsbook)

Byron’s been dialed in for months. His Martinsville win punched his ticket, and he rolls into Phoenix with seven top-10s in his last ten starts at the track. He’s finished top-five in both of the last two title races and knows what it takes to stay composed in these moments. Byron’s been the most complete driver in 2025 — consistent, calm, and ruthless when it counts.

Kyle Larson (+500 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Larson already knows how to win this race and the title, he did both in 2021. Since then, he’s logged eight top-10s in his last ten Phoenix starts and remains one of the best in the field at maintaining pace on long runs. If the race stays green, Larson’s rhythm and car control make him dangerous.

 

 

 

The Cinderella Story

Chase Briscoe (+900 Caesars Sportsbook)

The Cinderella story. Briscoe’s first time in the Championship 4 comes with some legitimate Phoenix upside — one career win here back in 2022. He’s improved all year, winning three times and showing clutch pace under pressure. His 18.4 average finish at Phoenix isn’t great, but if strategy flips or cautions hit late, he’s got just enough chaos factor to matter.

 

 

 

The Pick: William Byron

Byron’s been the most complete driver all season — qualifying speed, tire management, and pit execution are all elite. Larson might have the higher ceiling, Hamlin the storyline, but Byron has the balance to close it out. The pick for both the race and the 2025 Cup Series title is William Byron.

 

Props That Pop

Ryan Blaney – Top 5 Finish (-110 Bet365 Sportsbook)

You’ve got to get a Penske Ford in the mix, and Blaney’s the one. Five top-fives in his last seven playoff races, great flat-track form, and always there at the end. Reliable and worth the ticket.

Ross Chastain – Top 10 Finish (+110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

This is the sharper angle. Chastain’s the only non-playoff driver to ever win this race, and his style fits Phoenix perfectly. He doesn’t need another miracle — just a clean top-10. Solid plus-money value.

Triple Threat Parlay: Byron Win / Hamlin Top 5 / Wallace Top 10 (+1900 FanDuel Sportsbook)

A fun one for the finale. Byron wins, Hamlin hangs around the top five, and Bubba sneaks into the top 10. It’s a bold combo that’s wild enough to cash.

Byron Championship Hedge (+270 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Smart fail-safe if a non-playoff driver wins the race. Pays if Byron finishes highest among the Final 4. Protects your outright and still pays if he takes the title without the win.

 

 

 

Final Thoughts

Phoenix usually belongs to the Championship 4, and this year’s no different. Byron’s the guy to beat, Larson’s the biggest threat, and Hamlin’s running out of time. Sprinkle Chastain and Blaney for coverage, keep it tight, and end the season on a high note.

 

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