We enter another big weekend of major league baseball with a huge MLB DFS slate on tap for tonight. It will be consistent across the board as DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo all offer 14-game slates starting at 7:05p ET. This set of games offers excellent pitching led by the red-hot Aaron Nola and future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander facing the powerful Yankees. The Los Angeles Dodgers bats will be popular but expensive as well as top pay ups like Mike Trout and Rafael Devers. In order to get these stars in your lineups, you will need to find the right value pieces along with the big salaries, and no better place to start than the DFS Alarm Value Vault. There are some pop-up storm issues in Atlanta so make sure to check out the MLB Weather Report before lock as well as announced MLB Lineups, updated Vegas Odds for implied run totals, and the MLB lineup generator. Now let’s get that Vault open and find the top plays for tonight’s slate.
MLB DFS Value Pitchers
Jeffrey Springs (TAM) $8,500 DraftKings / $8,300 FanDuel / $44 Yahoo
Jeffrey Springs's salary has risen from the $5-$6K range just a couple of weeks ago but he is still only the 10th highest priced pitcher on DraftKings and 13th highest on FanDuel. He is striking out more than a batter per inning and besides a mediocre outing against the Orioles in his last start he has been more than solid. Tonight, he faces the free-swinging Pirates who rank 28th in team wOBA; 22nd in team ISO (.138), and 28th in strikeouts (25.3%) against right-handed pitching. His only downfall has been a pitch count limited to around 85-94 pitches but that is built into the price and with a season 2.00 ERA/0.98 WHIP Springs is a great SP2 on DK and a cheap pivot from pitchers like Aaron Nola on FD and Yahoo.
Merrill Kelly (ARI) $7,900 DraftKings / $8,900 FanDuel / $39 Yahoo
We have been picking on the Tigers offense all season long so why stop tonight. Detroit is 25th in strikeouts (24.1%), 29th in wOBA (.261), and dead last in team ISO (.112) against right-handed pitching. Kelly is coming off a win on the road against the Twins where he went seven innings and struck out five while only allowing one earned run. That start brought down his ERA to 3.46 with a 1.29 WHIP and 66:29 K: BB and Kelly will be a popular value play on all sites.
MLB DFS Value Hitters
Jared Walsh (LAA) $3,600 DraftKings / $3,100 FanDuel / $16 Yahoo
Jared Walsh against righties is a thing, especially when he is below $4K. He hit for the cycle back on June 11th and almost did it again last Tuesday when he fell a single shy of the accomplishment. Walsh has a .263 ISO/.392wOBA and .296 average against right-handed pitching dating back to 2021 and faces righty Chris Flexen, a pitcher that just allowed six hits and two runs over five innings against this same Angels team in his last start. With a .370 average and .474 ISO/.506wOBA over the last week and a .290 average with 4 HR/13 RBI over the last month, Walsh is firing on all cylinders putting him in play as a nice tourney option or cheap part of an Angels stack.
Jarren Duran (BOS) $3,500 DraftKings / $2,700 FanDuel / $14 Yahoo
Kiké Hernández has been slow in his progress to getting back to playing while dealing with a right hip flexor strain. Until his return, Jarren Duran should continue to man the leadoff spot and he has been on base in every game that he has played since being called up. He has hit safely in five of his last six games going 7-for-20 (.350) with three doubles, a triple, and a couple of stolen bases in that span. He is facing Cal Quantrill who is struggling with a 5.48xFIP and certainly isn’t missing any bats with a 14.8% strikeout rate. With a batting average of .300 since his call-up and hitting in an elite spot in an elite lineup against a weak pitcher puts Duran in play tonight.
Christian Walker (ARI) $3,900 DraftKings / $2,900 FanDuel / $17 Yahoo
Rony García of the Tigers hasn’t been terrible, but he is allowing 50% hard contact and 44.5% flyball rate. Christian Walker is a boom or bust hitter and now has home runs in three of his last four games with 19 on the season. He also has multiple hits in three of his last four and is in the top 5% of all of baseball in XSLG (.619) and xwOBA (.408). Don’t let the .208 average over the last 20 games blind you because Walker has been unlucky and still has 6 HR/12 RBI with a .306 ISO in that span.
Alex Kirilloff (MIN) $2,600 DraftKings / $2,400 FanDuel / $12 Yahoo
Alex Kirilloff’s nagging wrist looked pretty healthy in his recent Triple-A stint at St. Paul. He slashed .359/.465/.641 with 10 home runs, 65 runs, and 32 RBIs and this is a kid with immense talent that is ready for a breakout. Kirilloff’s pre-demotion struggles were an inability to drive pitches or even get the ball in the air which was a huge contrast to how the lefty-slugger was hitting before his wrist injury in 2021. The kid is back and healthy and gets the platoon advantage tonight over right-hander Germán Márquez. Lock and load.
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