MLB DFS Value Vault: July 16
Published: Jul 16, 2021
The first day out of the break is always tricky as guys have had nearly a week off so timing might be off. It is a huge slate on Friday though and there are several good options on the board.
Jed Lowrie, 2B/3B, OAK ($3,800 DK; $3,200 FD) – He has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball in July as he had five multi-hit games since the calendar changed and had a hit in every game but one this month. He also had three home runs and in back-to-back games before the break including eight RBI. I am all about the A’s tonight against Cleveland’s starter Eli Morgan who has allowed 20 earned runs in his last five starts, including eight long balls. I love a guy who was white hot against a pitcher who just gives up runs like it is his job.
Cavan Biggio, 3B, TOR ($3,500 DK; $2,600 FD) – It hasn’t been the kind of season that Biggio hoped for, but there’s no denying the talent. He did drive in three runs in the last three games before the break including a two-double game. He will face the Rangers who not only have a bullpen ERA of 4.47 but their starter, Jordan Lyles, has an ERA near 5.00 including 17 home runs in 17 starts. Biggio has not faced Lyles but he has hit 55 points higher against righties than lefties and all six of his home runs this year and seven of his eight home runs last season were against right-handed pitching. He is inexpensive and has a solid matchup.
Jarred Kelenic, OF, SEA ($2,000 on both) – The rookie was an unmitigated disaster in his first call-up and has been given another chance coming out of the Break. Sure, it has to be really hard to trust him, but he is an absolute free space on Friday. He hit .408 in the three weeks previous in the Minor Leagues including four home runs and 13 RBI. He had four home runs in just 31 at-bats against left-handed pitching down on the farm as well. He will face Angels’ lefty Andrew Heaney who has fallen apart before the break. Heaney allowed 15 earned runs and five home runs in his last three start that spanned just 14.1 innings. There is a boatload of risk with Kelenic, but perhaps after getting a breather out of the Majors will have helped him get back on track and he literally couldn’t be cheaper.
Cedric Mullins, OF, BAL ($3,700) – I am not sure what Cedric Mullins did to the people at DraftKings where they continue to keep his salary so low, but let’s keep taking advantage. He will face Danny Duffy who has had a great first half, but the guy has also had an ERA over 4.30 in each of the last three years and has given up plenty of home runs in his day. Mullins does hit righties better than lefties, but he still has a .298 average against left-handers and is homering at a similar rate against each. But he has been one of the best stories of the first half and I don’t see how any guy hitting .314 with 16 homers and 16 steals is priced well under $4,000.
Elvis Andrus, SS, OAK ($3,200) – In the eight days heading into the All-Star Break, Andrus had ten hits including three doubles and two home runs with four RBI. If you are looking for some cheap Oakland exposure against the Indians punching bag known as Eli Morgan, Andrus is your guy. Morgan’s WHIP is 1.50 which tells us he puts EVERYONE on base! Andrus is hitting 114 points higher against right-handed pitching as opposed to lefties and has been hitting pretty high in the order lately all which gives you a good chance of getting a solid return here.
Austin Meadows, OF, TB ($3,000) – He hasn’t had the best season for average, but his 16 homers and 58 RBI at the halfway point is pretty impressive. In the last week before the break, he had seven hits including three doubles and four RBI. He will face Charlie Morton from Atlanta who is having his usual, average season. Meadows hits for a 32-point higher average against righties and 15 of his 16 home runs have come against them. He also has hit ten of his 16 home runs away from cavernous Tampa Bay.
Hunter Dozier, 3B, KC ($2,800) – It has been a pretty disastrous season for Dozier from a batting average perspective, but he at least showed some signs of life in the last week before the All-Star Break. Dozier had three doubles, a home run and four RBI since the calendar changed to July which I know isn’t awesome, but it is a definite improvement. Bottom line is I need someone against Keegan Akin and the Orioles tonight and Dozier hit .318 against left-handed pitching and .323 at home last season and is a nice, cheap option considering there are sure to be runs scored by the Royals against a pitcher with an ERA over 7.50 and that has allowed 27 earned runs in his last five starts.