MLB DFS Value Vault: August 9
Published: Aug 09, 2021
We have a very small slate this evening and depending on your preferred site of choice, the game pool could be altered. The main slate on FanDuel and Yahoo is excluding the Cincinnati game, whereas the main slate for DraftKings includes all five of today’s games. Just keep that in mind when building out your lineups, and understand you won’t get to use those Cincinnati righties on FanDuel or Yahoo this evening.
Without further ado, let’s take a look at my favorite value bats and value arm for this evening’s main slate!
Jameson Taillon, SP NYY ($8,100 FD/$7,800 DK/$43 Yahoo) - Jameson Taillon has been damn good of late. Many will look to avoid him because he has a 5.27 ERA on the road this year, but over his last six starts, four of which have been on the road, he has a 1.45 ERA with 35 strikeouts across 37.1 innings of work. He’s allowed two or less earned runs in six straight starts, and in eight of his last nine, and in his last start against the Royals, he struck out six batters over 6.1 innings of one run ball.
Jesús Aguilar, 1B MIA ($3,400 FD/$3,300 DK/$13 Yahoo) - BvP play of the day, well, one of them. Aguilar is 4-for-9 with two home runs against Joe Musgrove in his career. Aguilar has an .821 OPS against right-handers this year, not to mention a .931 OPS away from his home stadium. Over the last week, five of Aguilar’s six hits have gone for extra bases, and when he’s made contact of late, good things have happened.
Max Kepler, OF MIN ($12) - On a very limited slate, sometimes you have to get creative and just trust the raw data. I don’t often like going after Lucas Giolito, but to get contrarian, Kepler is a great play today. He’s 8-for-29 with three home runs against Giolito for his career, but the biggest number is that he’s struck out just twice against Giolito! Twice! Kepler hasn’t exactly been swinging the hottest bat in the world, but he is hitting .273 with a .710 OPS over the last week.
Omar Narváez, C MIL ($10) - It’s a very small slate and on Yahoo you have to play a catcher. Why is Narvaez priced so low!? Left-handed hitters are hitting .298 off Mills and the Chicago right-hander simply doesn’t miss many bats. Narvaez, to his credit, has hit righties at an even .300 clip this year and he’s a .287 hitter on the road. Sure, he’s cooled off a bit of late, but he has a .913 OPS over his last 13 at-bats, and Chicago pitching this year, he’s hit .333 with a 1.056 OPS. He’s too cheap on Yahoo.
Andrew Vaughn, OF CWS ($3,100) - Andrew Vaughn is the lefty killer, but Minnesota’s Beau Burrows has been so bad against righties, you have to take a look at Vaughn at this price point. Sure, he’s hitting righties at just a .242 clip this year, but over the past month, he’s hit righties at a .297 clip with a .922 OPS! He just might be developing into more than a lefty killer… UPDATE: Vaughn is not starting for Chicago. Pivot to Aquino at a similar price point.
Aristides Aquino, OF CIN ($3,100) - Load up on Cincinnati hitters, especially righties on DraftKings today. Sam Hentges has allowed righties to hit .366 with a 1.016 OPS this season. Also, it’s scary when his 6.38 home ERA is somehow the better half of his home/road splits. Aquino has been more impactful at home than on the road, but he does have a .513 slugging percentage and .873 OPS against southpaws this year. Aquino is a good bang for your buck, but if you have the money, you most certainly want Jonathan India, Nicholas Castellanos and Kyle Farmer.
Eloy Jiménez, OF CWS ($3,100) - Minnsota’s Beau Burrows has allowed righties to hit .381 with a 1.210 OPS through his 9 innings of work this year. In 6.2 innings last year, right-handed hitters hit .400 with a 1.438 OPS! Well, in comes Eloy Jiménez, hitting .429 with a 1.476 OPS against right-handers this year, and over the last seven days he has two home runs and six RBI to go with a .318 batting average. Jimenez just might go nuclear today and at this price point, you’ll want to be invested.
Cesar Hernandez, 2B CWS ($3,100) - Hernandez is hitting .303 since joining the White Sox, posting four multi-hit games and hitting safely in six of nine games in a Chicago uniform. Beau Burrows’ numbers against righties are atrocious, but his numbers against lefties aren’t much better. Chicago is going to be a popular stack this evening, and Hernandez will be an important part of it.