MLB DFS Value Vault: August 3
Published: Aug 03, 2021
A full 15 game slate for this Tuesday evening is music to the ears! Walker Buehler, Zack Wheeler and Lance McCullers headline the available arms, and we have five pitchers above $9,000 on FanDuel. There’s value to be had on all sites, so regardless of where you play, whether it’s FanDuel, DraftKings, Yahoo or all of the above, there is plenty of value to be had. Below, you’ll find a pitcher that is simply too cheap, even if the overall upside doesn’t match other arms on the slate, and quite a few bats that find themselves on the good side of player splits for this slate.
Without further ado, let’s check out my favorite value arm, as well as a couple bats for tonight’s 15 game main slate!
Zach Davies, SP CHC ($6,500 FD/$7,200 DK/$32 Yahoo) - Davies may not have top tier upside due to his limited strikeout numbers, but he does have 37 strikeouts in 44.2 road innings this year, and he does have 23 punch outs over his last 25.1 innings of work. The right-hander has allowed three or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven starts, and he’s coming off back-to-back eight strikeout outings. Over the last two weeks, Colorado has the fifth-highest strikeout rate in baseball and have a league average .247 average in that span.
Justin Upton, OF LAA ($2,700 FD/$3,200 DK/$12 Yahoo) - Justin Upton is 7-for-15 with a home run against Texas’ Jordan Lyles. Furthermore, He’s served up a .292 average to right-handed hitters this year, and while Upton’s .232 average and .309 wOBA against righties is nothing spectacular, he has done quite well against Texas pitching this year, posting a .267 average, 1.057 OPS and five home runs in just 30 at-bats! I don’t mind an Angels stack with Ohtani, Upton and Max Stassi tonight.
Nelson Cruz, OF TB ($14 Yahoo) - Oh, you say Cruz mashes Yusei [Kikuchi]? You’re not wrong. Cruz is 4-for-5 with two home runs in his career against the Seattle southpaw and you beat Kikuchi with righties, not lefties. Left-handed hitters are hitting just .109 with a .168 wOBA against him, whereas righties have a more respectable .254 batting average and .340 wOBA. Cruz crushes lefties and has done so all year, posting a .354 average and .980 OPS. He’s too cheap on Yahoo.
Andrew Benintendi, OF KC ($2,600 FD/$11 Yahoo) - Dylan Cease will likely be a popular play tonight, so if you want to zig when others zag, take a look at Benintendi. He’s 4-for-7 in his career off the Chicago right-hander and the Kansas City outfielder is hitting .281 in road contests this year. Benintendi has been slumping a bit, so this is pretty contrarian, but he’s been solid against righties and on the road this year, and he has good numbers against Cease.
Alec Bohm, 1B/3B PHI ($2,400 FD) - Righties have hit Corbin this year to the tune of a .301 average and Bohm loves when a southpaw is on the mound. Bohm has a .314 average with four home runs against southpaws in 2021, and he’s no stranger to Corbin, going 4-for-10 with two home runs against him. Bohm just might be my favorite play of the day, and he’s an integral component of any Philadelphia stack this evening.
J.T. Realmuto, C PHI ($3,000 FD) - Realmuto is hitting .267 against southpaws this year and Washington’s Patrick Corbin has allowed righties to post a .301 average and .379 wOBA. The Philadelphia backstop is hitting .299 on the road this year and over his last 29 at-bats, he’s hitting .345 with a .918 OPS. Corbin struggled last time out against the Phillies, allowing three home runs with just two strikeouts in five innings of work. He’s allowed four or more earned runs in four of his last five starts.
Jo Adell, OF LAA ($2,000 DK) - I mentioned it with Justin Upton above, but Jordan Lyles’ issues are with right-handers, and while Adell’s numbers in the minors this year were better against southpaws, his .280 batting average and .896 OPS against righties is nothing to scoff at. Strikeouts are the biggest issue in Adell’s game at the moment, but in the minors this year, despite striking out 99 times in 311 at-bats, he swatted 23 home runs, stole eight bases and posted a .289/.342/.592 slash line. Let’s hope for some minimum price magic tonight!
Andrew Vaughn, 1B/OF CWS ($2,900 FD/$3,100 DK) - Sometimes the key to DFS is not overthinking it. Paralysis by analysis is a real thing, so we aren’t going to think here. Is Chicago facing a left-hander? If yes, play Vaughn. Kris Bubic is on the bump for Kansas City and righties have hit him at a .266 clip, compared to .222 for lefties. Vaugh is hitting .318 with a massive .431 wOBA against southpaws this year, and Vaughn has a .331 on-base percentage and .262 batting average in home contests this year