Happy Saturday everyone! While we may be in the full swing of things with NFL Week 4 action, there is still money to be won in the baseball world. We have a 9-game slate on tap today with the Chicago White Sox (-280) being the biggest favorites on the slate.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Adrian Sampson
Chicago White Sox vs. Matt Manning
Lucas Giolito, CWS – Giolito has been solid this year with 11 wins, a 3.58 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 198 strikeouts across 173.2 innings of work. He has scored at least 15.6 points on DK in seven of his past eight outings with his lone time of not reaching that mark being 11.6 points and he scored at least 25.9 points in three of those outings. The Tigers are 29th in runs scored over the past 14 days and a matchup with Giolito shouldn’t spark their offense.
Julio Urías, LAD – Urias is firmly in the NL Cy Young conversation as he is 19-3 (the most wins and best win percentage in all of baseball) with a 3.01 ERA, 3.16 FIP, 1.04 WHIP, and 188 strikeouts across 179.1 innings pitched. If he can snag another win and lower his ERA to under 3.00, it would make his overall line for the season look incredibly impressive. He faced the Brewers earlier this year and he was incredible, firing seven innings of one-run ball while striking out 10 and picking up the win. The brewers are 23rd in runs scored over the past 14 days.
Zac Gallen, ARZ – Gallen has been up and down this season, but he’s been more up than down lately as he has a 3.21 ERA, 3.14 FIP, and 46 strikeouts across his last 42 innings pitched (seven starts). In his most recent start against the Rockies he was lights-out, hurling seven shutout innings with just three hits against while striking out nine. The Rockies have the ninth highest strikeout rate over the past 14 days. If you can make it work, a combo of Gallen and Urias is my favorite of the day.
Jordan Lyles, TEX – Outside of one bad start against the White Sox, Lyles has pitched well lately, scoring 22.8, 20.8, 30.8, negative three, and 11.6 points on DK over his last five games (the negative three being against the White Sox, of course). He has logged four quality starts and three wins in that span while throwing at least 96 pitches and 6.2 innings in four of those outings (showing he has a long leash). There is obviously a lot of risk here though and he is a GPP only option for me.
Pete Alonso, NYM 1B – Alonso has scored 30 and 15 points on DK over the last two days and now he gets a very favorable matchup with the combo of Chavez/Smyly. He is now hitting .263 on the year with 37 home runs and 93 RBI. He has a SLG north of .500 against both righties and lefties, so either way he is good there. He has also been FAR better on the road this season as he is slashing .290/.370/.622 on the road, compared to .234/.313/.414 at home. He is at a mid-tier price and with the home run upside he has, there is a lot to love today.
Eloy Jiménez, CWS OF – Jimenez once again has huge reverse splits, slashing .280/.317/.484 against righties with eight home runs and 31 RBI, compared to .180/.268/.340 against lefties with just two home runs and six RBI. Today he faces a righty that has really struggled in Manning, who has a 6.16 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. To make things even better, Manning has reverse splits too as righties are slashing .311/.372/.469 against him, compared to the .260/.329/.447 line that lefties have produced against him this season.
Brandon Nimmo, NYM OF – Nimmo swatted a pair of home runs yesterday and he now has eight on the year to go along with his .297 average and .408 OBP. He continues to get on base at a high rate and he has been a very steady cash play with GPP upside when the Mets offense booms. I lean more on the side of the Mets offense booming in this one as they face two bad pitchers in a game that doesn’t matter for the Braves at all. I would not be surprised to see Nimmo get on base two or three times in this game and score a pair of runs. He should hit value at this price.
Frank Schwindel, CHC 1B – Why is Schwindel only $3100 on DK?? He is averaging nearly double-digit points per game and is hitting .341 with 13 home runs, 17 doubles, 39 RBI, and 38 runs scored across 54 games with the Cubs this season. His slash against lefties is incredible as he rolls into this game slashing .328/.408/.701 against them, compared to (an also strong, but not as good) .323/.354/.545 against righties this season. Lester has a 4.62 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. He’s also been crushed by righty bats as they are slashing .295/.363/.507 against him, compared to the .246/.287/.373 line that lefty bats have produced against him.
Harrison Bader, STL OF – Bader is having a nice season, hitting .267 with 15 home runs, nine steals, 49 RBI, and 43 runs scored. He has been swinging a hot bat, hitting .361 with four home runs, three steals, 12 RBI, and 14 runs scored over the last 20 games. He has reverse splits too, hitting .272 with a .330 OBP against righties, compared to .243 and .293 against lefties. On top of all that, in a handful of at-bats against Sampson he is 4-5 against him in his career with a home run. A lot of upside with Bader and at a cheap price.
|Julio Urias - SP
|Lucas Giolito - SP
|Zac Gallen - SP
|Pete Alonso - 1B
|Nicky Lopez - SS
|Whit Merrifield - 2B
|Tyler O'Neill - OF
|Eloy Jimenez - OF
|Jeff McNeil - OF