MLB DFS Pitching Coach: August 14
Published: Aug 14, 2021
Walker Buehler, LAD – Buehler is easily the top pitcher on tonight’s slate, so it’s far from shocking to see him priced as such. He is the only pitcher on the slate averaging north of 18.5 DK points per game and he’s well above that at 23.0 per game. He has scored at least 26.5 DK points in five of his past six outings. He has 12 wins, a 2.13 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 152 strikeouts across 147.2 innings this season and has himself firmly in the NL Cy Young discussion. Today he gets a matchup with a Mets offense that ranks 28th in runs per game this season with a mark of 3.81. I don’t think anyone would be shocked to see Buehler rack up 30+ points tonight.
Dylan Cease, CWS – Is Cease as safe as some of the guys priced above him (Garcia, Kap, Musgrove)? Probably not, but his ceiling is bigger and there’s a reason he has the second highest DK point per game average on the slate, so even in a tough matchup against New York, if I’m paying up and not for Buehler, it’s for Cease. He has been incredible at home this year, pitching to a 2.20 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 12.2 K/9 at home, compared to a 5.86 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, and 11.7 K/9 on the road, so the fact that this is a home game is very important. The Yankees offense only ranks 20th in runs per game this season, so it’s not like they’re a powerhouse by any means.
Hyun-Jin Ryu, TOR – Ryu got rocked in his last started but in the two starts prior to that he had at least 25 points on DK in both. He only has 103 strikeouts across 126.2 innings pitched this season, which leaves a bit to be desired, but he does have a strong win total of 11 to go along with a solid 3.62 ERA and 3.63 FIP. He has been far better on the road this year with a 3.12 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 8.1 K/9, compared to a 4.18 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 6.4 K/9 at home. He gets a solid matchup with the Mariners as they rank 23rd in runs per game this season and they are 26th in runs scored over the last 14 days. Ryu should be able to keep them in check and with the Jays offense backing him he will have a pretty strong chance at picking up with number 12.
Jordan Lyles, TEX – What version of Lyles will we get today? Who knows, as he’s been super unpredictable, but that makes him interesting in GPPs as a SP2. He has 11 starts with at least 13 points on DK, but he also has six starts in which he scored less than 1 point. On the bright side, he has a long leash as he has pitched at least five innings in 15 of his past 17 outings and he has throw 110 and 114 pitches in his past two starts. He is a low floor pitcher tonight, but there is 20+ point upside tonight with him and he is not expensive by any means.
Kenta Maeda, MIN – Maeda has scored at least 13 points on DK in seven straight starts. He’s been a different pitcher at home this season, pitching to a 2.53 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in Minnesota, compared to a 5.77 ERA and 1.41 WHIP on the road. The Rays offense is strong, but they do strikeout a lot and they have the sixth highest strikeout rate over the last 14 days at 25.3-percent. If he can keep the bats in check, there is a path to success tonight for Maeda at a cheap price. Given his strength at home and the Rays strikeout rates, Maeda makes for an obvious SP2 candidate tonight.
My top combos today: Chalk - Buehler/Ryu