Perusing tonight's nine game slate, there's some potential pitfalls, especially regarding pricing which makes it very difficult. Could Shane Bieber throw more than three innings tonight, it's possible, but weather will be a factor as well in Kansas City, along with the fact Cleveland does not gain much pushing him too hard his last time out this year. Plus, the league average in September by a starting pitcher results in 4.8 innings with a 4.60 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 21.7 strikeout percentage. So, the quality start and win bonuses may be difficult this evening. Weigh the price points, match-ups, use the hitting coach, value vault and the MLB DFS playbook before setting your lineups. Best of luck.
Top Tier
Robbie Ray, Toronto ($10,000 on DraftKings, $10,800 on FanDuel)
With the American League Cy Young Award race wide open, Ray could rubber stamp his cause with a strong outing at home versus the Yankees. Noting how his opponent's been hot, this will not be easy. However, Ray's 13-6 this year with a 2.68 ERA with 244 strikeouts and a 1.04 WHIP. He's also 8-3 in home games with a 2.28 ERA but allowed six earned runs in 9.2 innings versus New York this year overall. Betting on momentum and his 3-1 mark this month with a 42:11 K:BB over 28.2 innings with a 2.51 ERA and career 26.9 K% against his opposition's lineup. More of a GPP play, but I think Ray will perform well tonight.
Lance McCullers Jr., Houston ($9,600 on DraftKings, $9,700 on FanDuel)
Houston remains one win away from clinching the American League West, so tonight may be the night. McCullers Jr. owns a 2-1 record in September with 27 strikeouts against 12 walks in 24 innings and a 3.00 ERA in them. He will not reach 200 strikeouts on the season but could hit 190 with nine in this outing. He owns a 34.5 strikeout rate versus the Rays hitters in past match-ups with a 3.52 FIP and .192 batting average against making him a potentially better cash game play if spending up and even a GPP target if going against the stream.
Mid Tier
Joe Ryan, Minnesota ($9,300 on DraftKings, $8,800 on FanDuel)
He will be popular tonight coming off 11 strikeouts against the Cubs his last time out. Through his first four starts, Ryan boasts an impressive 2.45 ERA with 25 strikeouts versus three walks through 22 innings of work. Plus, the Twins have won 17 of their last 25 versus the Tigers. Note he may only record five innings, so the quality start bonus may not activate, but he gets 6-to-8 strikeouts with a chance at the win, he's worth the risk on this slate.
Rich Hill, New York Mets ($7,000 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel)
Crafty veteran Hill closes out his season with a home start versus the Marlins. He's faced them three times this year logging 18 innings giving up 13 hits, six runs (five earned) and striking out 15 while issuing three walks. He recorded eight strikeouts over six shutout innings in Miami earlier this month and owns a 29:8 K:BB in September through 26.2 innings with a 2.70 ERA. A sneaky cash game play with GPP upside.
Nick Pivetta, Boston ($7,000 on DraftKings, $6,800 on FanDuel)
Not for the risk averse, but Pivetta's a -220 favorite in Baltimore but with a game total approaching 11. He's struggled against the Orioles allowing 20 hits and nine walks with 20 strikeouts over 21.2 innings this season resulting in a 4.15 ERA. However, through 14.1 innings in September, he's racked up 15 strikeouts against one walk and could pitch well this evening, especially against a struggling lineup which fares better facing southpaws. Just know it could go sideways as well.
Bargain Arm
Scott Kazmir, San Francisco ($6,200 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel)
Many may prefer Tony Gonsolin, but with the Dodgers two games back, they will do whatever it takes winning their game against the Padres, which may cap his innings. Kazmir gets the Diamondbacks in a pitcher friendly park coming off four innings in San Diego his last time out during which he recorded three strikeouts while yielding three walks and an unearned run. Alex Wood tossed six shutout innings against Arizona last night, so siding with the match-up. If Kazmir throws strikes, he could turn in five innings, get a very under the radar win (-200 favorite) and reward those using him as an SP2 in GPP's.