Top Tier
DeAndre Hopkins, ARI - Revenge game anyone? Don’t buy into the numbers saying that Houston is one of the tougher opponents in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers. The secondary is horrible and has allowed over 14.5 yards per reception. Quarterbacks are averaging 8.3 yards per attempt against Houston, completing nearly 67 percent of their passes and the Texans are one of just six teams to have allowed at least 25 passes of 20 or more yards. Hopkins needed just four targets to score two touchdowns last week, and one would have to think that Arizona wants Hopkins (and J.J. Watt) to show out against their former team.
Tyreek Hill, KC - Hill has shown he can put up massive fantasy days in just one half of football and this is the perfect matchup for that to occur. Tennessee ranks 27th in DVOA against the pass, 19th in DVOA against the opponent’s WR1, per Football Outsiders (FO), and dead last in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Hill is frequently targeted and that will play against this lackluster secondary.
Davante Adams, GB - Of the teams playing in Sunday’s main slate, do you know what team happens to allow the most receiving yards per game to opposing number one wide receivers? I’ll give you three guesses. Well, if you said a football team, you’re correct but need to be more specific. If you said The Football Team, then you’re correct! Washington has been terrorized by receivers this year, as only the Titans have allowed more receiving yards and fantasy points per game to wideouts than Washington. Adams is pricy, but he’s in a great matchup that should lend itself to plenty of targets from Aaron Rodgers.
Cooper Kupp, LAR - This one feels like cheating. Similar to what I wrote about Hopkins, don’t buy into the fact that Detroit is good against the pass because they haven’t allowed a ton of fantasy production to receivers. Sure, Detroit has allowed just four passing scores to receivers this season, but they’ve allowed over 1,000 yards to the position! Regardless of how you feel about Pro Football Focus’ player grades, just hear me out. Detroit’s primary slot man, AJ Parker, is PFF’s 116th ranked corner out of 118, and has a 144.5 passer rating when targeted. Ouch. There’s nothing wrong with a little bit of chalk!
Mid Tier
Calvin Ridley, ATL - The Dolphins are tied for the most passes of at least 20 yards allowed this season and their secondary is banged up. We’ll have to keep an eye on the availability of Miami’s top corners, but even if they play, will they be able to slow Ridley down? The Dolphins have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers and rank 26th in pass DVOA, per FO, so the production hasn’t matched the name value in 2021. Ridley has yet to breakthrough in 2021, but he has received at least eight targets in every game this season, so the volume has been there.
A.J. Brown, TEN - Brown was targeted essentially on every third pass play that he was on the field on Monday night crazy. Julio Jones is banged up again, and the Chiefs have been handing out fantasy points to wide receivers this season. The Chiefs rank 31st in DVOA against the pass, and they rank in the bottom-third of the National Football League in DVOA against both the number one and number two receiver for the opposition, per FO. He’s the alpha in the Tennessee passing attack, and Derrick Henry can’t run it every play. Right…. Right?
Jaylen Waddle, MIA - In the two games Tua Tagovailoa started (and finished) this season, Waddle has 14 catches on 18 targets for 131 yards and three touchdowns. Exceptional. In Week 7, Waddle gets to face an Atlanta defense that ranks 30th in DVOA against the pass and has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season. His volume and production with Tagovailoa cannot go understated leading into this smash spot.
Value Tier
Rashod Bateman, BAL - While some zig to Marquise Brown, zag to Rashod Bateman. Does this mean I don’t like Brown this week? No, in fact, I really like Brown. However, when it comes to Bateman this week, like the middle schoolers say, I really, really like him. You don’t think they want to get him involved? He needs to develop his rapport with Lamar Jackson, but meaningful fantasy production could begin as soon as this week, especially as Baltimore looks to stick it to a division rival. If you have the cajones, play Lamar with both Brown and Bateman, because there just might be enough to go around, especially if Cincinnati can put up some points.
Nico Collins, HOU - Davis Mills has struggled on the road this season, and in GPPs, Collins is rather intriguing. Brandin Cooks is the far safer play, but Collins is slowly ascending to the WR2 on this team. In his first game back last week, he caught four of six targets, ran a route on 96.8 percent of his snaps, and went 2-for-2 on contested catches. Another reason why I like Collins? Well, he stands 6’4”, and Arizona’s two primary corners, Byron Murphy and Marco Wilson stands 5’11” and 6’1” respectively. Upside is limited, but as a cheap dart throw, Collins’ frame could come in quite useful.
Fade
Corey Davis, NYJ - Davis has at least seven targets in all but one game this season, so it seems crazy to fade Davis at his price point against a New England defense that watched Davis Mills look like Tom Brady and the Dallas receivers like future Hall of Famers. Well, the latter might actually end up being true, but I digress. Davis seems to be the one that Bill Belichick is going to focus his attention on, and force Zach Wilson to spread the ball around. It’s tough to pay for Davis on FanDuel when Jaylen Waddle is the same price in a far more advantageous spot.
Mecole Hardman, KC - I want Hardman to be a thing as much as the next guy or gal, but be careful blowing the matchup out of proportion. Yes, it’s a great matchup, and Hardman has 13 receptions over his last two games. Tennessee hasn’t really stopped anyone in the secondary and the unfortunate injury to Caleb Farley stretches that secondary as thin as deli meat. Be careful about your exposure to Hardman this weekend is all I’m saying. Just because he is a receiver facing Tennessee doesn’t automatically make him a cash game lock.