DFS Position Coaches:
QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST
Here we are - championship week. If you are in the playoffs still, you might want to put the guys from the bench in a DFS lineup to help ease the FOMOs. And if you aren’t in, well, this is all we’ve got. So let’s win some money and brag on Twitter to make ourselves feel better. With no Thursday or Saturday games, it’s a MONSTER slate so the world is our oyster.
Oh by the way, five of our plays last week returned 2.5X or more including Mark Andrews who was the very top play and Cameron Brate who gave us 3.64X as a dart throw. But enough about that.
As a reminder, we like to give you guys at each price point so that you can build the lineup you want at any level.
Top Tier: the safest and most expensive guys available if you want to pay up
Mid Tier: affordable players that offer the best bang for your buck
Value Tier: the bargain bin players that are risky by nature but can have the huge upside in terms of value created
Fades: The guys we feel are the worst value proposition that you should actively avoid
Top Tier
Travis Kelce- I honestly don’t really understand why Mark Andrews is more expensive than Travis Kelce. The Ravens quarterback is banged up and Andrews has a worse matchup for tight ends. The Chiefs get the Cincinnati Bengals who are letting up the sixth-most points of any team to the tight end. And Kelce is the best tight end in the league. So, if you are spending way up, this is where to spend your money. Kelce is 14.6% of your budget on DraftKings and 15.5% on Yahoo so a little more value on the DK side.
Rob Gronkowski- Gronk is going to be the next best option in the elite tier given that George Kittle is going to be playing with a rookie QB this week (or a QB with a badly injured hand). Gronk might not have as high of ownership as folks may think because A. he’s had two down weeks and B. folks may predict a run heavy game in a blowout. But Tom Brady has really never been the guy to take his foot off the gas in these games vs. the Jets. In his last seven games vs. the Jets, his team has outscored them 229 to 56. That’s a cartoonish average score of 33-8. It will likely be just like old times here with Gronk and Brady connecting often. It’s fairly close in terms of percentages on both DK and Yahoo but Gronk is ever so slightly a better deal on Yahoo.
Mid Tier
Zach Ertz - There are a lot of guys in this range that are similar in terms of upside and price - Mike Gesicki, Dallas Goedert, and Dalton Schultz. But Zach Ertz has the circumstances on his side. We’ll discuss Gesicki and Schultz below but Goedert is going into this week with a QB who has an ankle injury. Ertz on the other hand not only has a healthy QB and no DeAndre Hopkins, but he’s coming off a 13 target game. This game has an over/under of 51 points so it’s looking like shootout city and Zach Ertz has been the new sheriff in town with 17 red zone targets since arriving in Arizona week seven - the fourth of any tight end. He is a steal this week on Yahoo as he accounts for 10.4% of your budget on DK but only 8.5% on Yahoo.
Noah Fant - In the modern age of COVID, we need to pivot as soon as we get new information. In this case the new information is that Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick were just diagnosed with COVID and are highly likely to be out. Now you get Fant as a top target on the team going up against the Chargers who are one of the very worst teams vs. the position. Jackpot. You almost have to make at least one Fant lineup. And you can make it on either platform because he’s roughly 8.5% of your budget on both.
Value Tier
Hunter Henry - This is a great spot for him because folks will be off him after the down performance last week. But those folks aren’t focusing on the right details. The Bills (specifically Matt Milano, Jordan Poyer, and crew) are a terrible tight end matchup and have done a good job of neutralizing the position all year - just as the Pats did to Dawson Knox until that shovel pass with 2 minutes left. Henry still ran the second most routes behind Jakobi Meyers and he should be far more effective against the Jaguars. He caught two of three end zone targets vs. the Colts and he’s clearly the main event in the red area. At 8.4% of your budget on DK and 10% on Yahoo, this is a DK play.
Foster Moreau - This one is honestly too easy so he might have fairly high ownership but he also might be THE chalk so you need at least one lineup. With Darren Waller out, Moreau has played 100% and 96% of the snaps the last two weeks. That’s essentially the entire game. The Colts have an atrocious TE resume. Dawson Knox had his only 100+ yard game against them. Hunter Henry had two touchdowns. Zach Ertz just had 13 targets against them. That’s pretty much everything we look for right? He’s $3,800 on DK and $14 on Yahoo so it doesn’t matter where you use him. The only concern is that everyone will have him. And sometimes that’s just fine.
Bonus Dart Throw (2X!)
Albert Okwuegbunam - It’s a big slate so we are giving you TWO bonus dart throws! This one is simple. The Broncos are missing two WRs. Everything we said about the Chargers defense above for Fant applies to Albert O. He’s $3,000 on DK and $13 on Yahoo. About as cheap as it gets.
Mo Alie-Cox - EDIT Jack Doyle IS active so pivot to Albert O in Dart Land.
We don’t usually like Mo. But with Jack Doyle out, we all of a sudden do. They usually split snaps but with Doyle hurt they didn’t last week. We have to keep an eye on Wentz but, based on the new protocol, he actually has a chance to play now. If he’s playing and Doyle is out, Mo is a cheap dart throw on every single platform. Risky, but cheap.
Fades
Dalton Schultz- For the entire season we have warned you about this one defender. And for the entire season we have essentially been right. The Cardinals are the number one defense vs. the tight end. Isaiah Simmons is a huge problem for tight ends. Why in the world would you feel compelled to start Dalton Schultz with 28 teams available to you on the main slate? Just don’t do that.
Mike Gesicki - Another one that makes us nervous. DeVante Parker and Jaylen Waddle are both healthy. Tennessee is very good at covering tight ends and interior players. It should be a low scoring game. Gesicki is more expensive than Zach Ertz who we just explained has the exact opposite things going on with a good matchup and WRs missing. So there’s really no world where I start Gesicki in DFS. Just not doing it.