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Updated: Wed, May 27th 2020 10:00:07 am

Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Venue: Arrowhead Stadium(Kansas City)Sun. 1-19 @ 3:05 pm ESTOver/Under: 52.5


Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs
Game Time: Sunday, January 19th at 3:05pm ET
Spread: Chiefs -7

Tennessee Titans

Ryan Tannehill – Who knows what to do with Tannehill this week? He did have three total touchdowns last week, but he only threw the ball 14 times a week after throwing it 15 times! He hasn’t even topped 90 passing yards in either playoff game yet this season, as the game plan continues to be just hand the ball off to Derrick Henry and watch him bull through the defense. The Titans played two of the best pass defenses in the NFL this year so far in New England and Baltimore, and although the Chiefs aren’t on the level of those two teams, they are still pretty stout. As bad as the Kansas City defense is against the run, you still have to figure that Tannehill is going to throw it more than 15 times on Sunday. Back in Week 10 he did only throw 19 times against the Chiefs, but did have two passing touchdowns and 37 rushing yards. He certainly comes with some risk, but with less than stellar fantasy quarterbacks on the NFC Championship side, Tannehill remains in play as a much cheaper option if you don’t want to pay up for Mahomes.

Derrick Henry –These playoffs are Derrick Henry ’s world, and we are just living in them. He has over 400 total yards in the last two games alone with a touchdown. He has had 30 or more carries in three straight games. No one can stop this guy right now. It must be some mythical power in that ponytail he’s rocking. The Chiefs are atrocious against the run, and Henry bulldozed them for 188 yards and two touchdowns back in Week 10. He is so far and away the most attractive running back on the slate for fantasy purposes this weekend it isn’t even funny. Shoe horn him into any lineup you can.

A.J. Brown – While Brown was “The Man” down the stretch of the regular season, he has been incredibly quiet so far this postseason. It certainly isn’t helping that they have played amazing pass defenses with top notch corners, but the game plans have just been 95% about Derrick Henry . You certainly can’t blame the Titans, because it has been working! If you look back, Brown had just one catch for 17 yards the first time these two teams played. You would think that Brown would be a little more involved this week, but Bashaud Breeland is no slouch and should blanket him. His salary this week is far from out of control, but with how quiet he has been, it still may be too steep. You can’t say there is no way that he will have a strong game, but there is still a high probability of a bust week here.

Corey Davis – He has one catch in two playoff games, and it was a little jump pass from Derrick Henry from the three yard line. Davis has been pretty irrelevant from a fantasy perspective all season long, and with the Titans hyper focusing on the run, he has been a totally forgotten man. He should remain a forgotten man as far as DFS purposes go this week. The Titans are sure to run more than they pass again, and the Chiefs secondary is pretty strong and he would be a very ill-advised part of any lineup this weekend.

Jonnu Smith – Like every other Titan not named Derrick Henry , it has been a quiet postseason despite the two shocking wins for the team. Smith did have a touchdown last week, but he has just three catches for 21 yards in the two playoff games. He had a less than awe inspiring four catches for 30 yards back in Week 10 against the Chiefs, but the Kansas City defense did give up six touchdowns to tight ends during the regular season, and one to Houston’s Darren Fells last week in the Divisional Round. Smith will certainly be the cheapest of the four starting tight ends on this weekend’s slate, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t good. He might not be your first choice, but if you are looking to pay up for a couple studs and need to go cheap on a position, Smith isn’t the worst option out there.

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes – He had what you might call a “big day” with 321 passing yards, five touchdowns, and 53 rushing yards as well. It could have been more if any of his receivers could have caught the ball in the first quarter. Mahomes and Travis Kelce took the game over and the Texans had no answer of how to stop him. There were few defenses this season that were worst against the pass than the Texans, but the Titans aren’t exactly a lot better. They are on a great tear this postseason though, allowing just 25 points total to the Patriots and Ravens. It seems almost too good to be true that they could stop Mahomes though, and he is far and away the best option at quarterback on the weekend slate. He is considerably more expensive than the other three starters, but he is probably going to be worth it with over 300 yards and three touchdowns.

Damien Williams – There is zero doubt left in who controls the Chiefs backfield work as Williams was on the field for nearly every snap. He did some major damage too with three touchdowns in last week’s dismantling of the Texans. Williams looked fresh, fast, and explosive in this one and is a huge threat for any game left that the Chiefs play. Tennessee allowed 14 rushing touchdowns this season, which was in the bottom half of the league. Williams had 109 total yards on 19 carries and five catches the first time these two teams played, and will be a dynamite option in the Conference Championship round.

Tyreek Hill – The Divisional Round game was clearly not Hill’s bright spot of the season. He muffed a punt which led to a Houston touchdown, and he also looked like he was going to be hurt when he took a pretty big hit. He did get up and get back in the game, but the Texans did a good job taking him out of the game plan and Hill had just three catches for 41 yards on four targets. That is a shocking stat line considering the Chiefs scored 51 points. While he was forgotten last week, it seems like this could be the smash spot for Hill. Unless the Titans have just transformed into an elite defense lately, their secondary just isn’t that great. Hill absolutely torched them for 11 catches for 157 yards and a touchdown on 19 targets back in Week 10. That is the Titans defense that we know, not this elite unit we’ve watched the past couple weeks. Hill is the second most expensive receiver on the slate this week, but that seems absolutely justified considering his talent and history against the opponent.

Sammy Watkins – After he was all but given up on, Watkins popped up and had a nice game against the Texans with 76 yards on just two catches. Sadly, that would rank as his best yardage since his opening week explosion. He has only been targeted twice in each of the last two games, and doesn’t have more than five targets since Week 14. Watkins is decent, but he is so far from anything exciting. He had just five catches for 39 yards back in Week 10 against the Titans, and that was on nine targets. He will be cheap, so he could be worth a flier, but he isn’t so cheap that you should be excited about using him. This would be a click submit and hold your breath type of situation.

Travis Kelce – He is by far the most expensive tight end on the slate, but it is hard to argue that right now. Kelce was completely unstoppable against the Texans, racking up ten catches for 134 yards and three big touchdowns. That is the second time in four games that he has had more than ten catches and more than 130 yards. He is an absolute beast. Couple that with the fact that the Titans were one of the worst defenses against the tight end all year, allowing ten touchdowns, and Kelce had seven catches for 75 yards and a touchdown against them earlier this year. Add all of that together and he is certainly the best play you could ask for in the Conference Championship round, it is just a matter of roster construction and if you can afford him. Try to afford him if you can.

Summary: Everything is telling me that the Titans have no chance of pulling the third amazing upset on the road in this playoffs, but who thought they were going to destroy the Ravens? Despite the fact that the Titans held the Ravens to 12 points after they won 14 games in a row, their defense really wasn’t very good all season long. We saw last week what Patrick Mahomes can do to a subpar defense. The Titans will try to ride Derrick Henry and keep Mahomes off the field as much as possible, but in the end, the Chiefs don’t need a lot of time to score. I will be rooting for the Titans in this game, but again, I just can’t see a scenario where Kansas City loses at home.

Prediction: Chiefs 38, Titans 31

Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers

Venue: Levi's Stadium(Santa Clara)Sun. 1-19 @ 6:40 pm ESTOver/Under: 46.5


Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
Game Time: Sunday, January 19th at 6:40pm ET
Spread: 49ers -7.5

Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers – While he hasn’t been vintage Aaron Rodgers , he did do enough to eliminate the Seahawks last week. Rodgers threw for 243 yards and two touchdowns, including a bunch of critical third downs. His season was very “all or nothing” from a fantasy perspective this year, with only four 300 yard games, and nine games with one or no touchdowns. His worst game of the year came against the 49ers back in Week 12 where he threw for just 104 yards and a score as the San Francisco pass rush mauled him. The Packers will certainly be more prepared this week you would think, but it is hard to imagine Rodgers excelling in this one. He has one viable wide receiver, and Richard Sherman should be able to keep tabs on Davante Adams enough to stop him from having a monster game. Green Bay isn’t likely to score much more than 20 points in this one, and it doesn’t appear to be set up for a big fantasy game for their quarterback.

Aaron Jones – He has a firm hold on this backfield now, as he had 21 carries against the Seahawks, while the other two backs and a total of three. Jones was great in this past weekend’s game with two touchdowns, and helped ice the game for Green Bay. He has finished the year strong with seven touchdowns in the last five games. He draws an ultra tough matchup though against San Francisco who just shut Dalvin Cook down last week. Jones also struggled against them in Week 12 with just 38 rushing yards on 13 carries. He is far from a great play, but he shouldn’t get completely shut down this week. You shouldn’t expect 100 rushing yards or anything, but if the Pack can get Jones involved in the passing game as well, he could have 10-12 fantasy points. San Francisco was susceptible to the run at times this year.

Davante Adams – Despite being the only real target that Aaron Rodgers has to throw to, Adams is still torching opposing defenses. He had eight catches for 160 yards and two touchdowns against Seattle, making it four straight games with seven or more catches and over 90 receiving yards. Only one of those was actually against a decent defense though. The 49ers destroyed the Packers back in Week 12, but Adams still had a respectable game in PPR formats with seven catches for 43 yards and Green Bay’s only score. He is as close to unstoppable as there is at wide receiver for the team’s left, and while he is unlikely to have a big blowup game you shouldn’t be surprised if Adams still topped 15 fantasy points in this one. He will have to deal with Richard Sherman a lot, but Adams is so good he could still go for 100 yards in this one.

Jimmy Graham – Seahawk fans won’t be rooting for Graham any time soon as his third down catch clearly fell short of the first down marker, but he was awarded it anyway. It was the second straight game that Graham had exactly 49 receiving yards, but those weren’t against great defenses. Graham only topped 49 receiving yards three times all season long. One of his worst games of the year came against the 49ers with just one catch for seven yards. You have to figure that Aaron Rodgers is going to have to throw to someone besides Davante Adams , but no other wide receiver had more than one catch last week. You can take a shot on Graham, but he will likely be the least productive of the four tight ends this weekend.

San Francisco 49ers

Jimmy Garoppolo – He was far from perfect last week, but he didn’t need to be as the 49ers crushed the Vikings soul with the running game. Garoppolo ended up throwing for only 131 yards and a touchdown in this one on 11 completions. He simply does what the offense needs on a given day. San Francisco clearly wants to run the ball first, and pass second. He has had his share of good games, although he still makes mistakes, and sometimes isn’t asked to throw a lot. Garoppolo has one or no touchdown passes in five of his last six games. He did throw for 253 yards and two touchdowns against the Packers back in Week 12, but they were also so far ahead that they ran a lot in the second half. You would think that this one would be more competitive and that Garoppolo would be asked to throw 25-28 times. If you are looking for a safe assumption on Garoppolo’s performance, look for 235 yards and two passing touchdowns in this one.

Tevin Coleman – After being written off for a couple months, Coleman showed up and had great success against the Vikings with 105 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries. This against a defense that only allowed eight rushing touchdowns all season long. San Francisco clearly rides the hot hand when it comes to running back, and it is very hard to predict who that will be. Coleman continues to be in the game on the opening series, so he kind of gets the first crack. The Packers allowed 120 yards per game on the ground, and 15 rushing touchdowns during the regular season. And although they didn’t give up many rushing yards to Seattle last week, their line was decimated, they were down to their fourth running back, and Marshawn Lynch still had two touchdowns. Finding the 49er who will excel could be quite lucrative this week for DFS lineups. Raheem Mostert has been consistent for a longer period of time this year, but Coleman is coming off the hot game. Flip a coin. Coleman costs more, but is generally first in line for carries.

Raheem Mostert – Despite being out-carried by Tevin Coleman last week, Raheem Mostert still didn’t do poorly as he had 58 yards on 12 carries. Coleman had the hot hand, and Mostert was also dealing with a cramp in that game. He has averaged at least 4.8 yards a carry in six of the last seven games, and last week was the first game he didn’t have a touchdown since Week 11. His long touchdown streak started against the Packers in Week 12 with six carries for 45 yards and that score. He is just as good of a bet to carry the load for San Francisco against the Packers, and given the fact that Green Bay’s run defense is leaky to say the least, even both guys could have good games. Mostert’s price tag plummeted after Coleman’s big game last week. It is far from a sure thing, but don’t be surprised at all if he tops 80 rushing yards in this one.

Emmanuel Sanders – It remained quiet from Sanders with just two catches on two targets for 33 yards. Although when the team only throws it 19 times all game it is hard for anyone to see a ton of action. Sanders has broken 35 yards once in the last four weeks, and although he was banged up at the time, had just one catch the first time the Niners played the Pack. Right now Sanders just isn’t involved enough to trust in fantasy as he has only been targeted 16 times in the last four games with 126 total yards in that span. He has a name you know, and he always can blow up for a big game, but it is a really long shot right now. (P.S. the “he has a name you know” part is something I wrote last week when I said Tevin Coleman wouldn’t do anything and he went for over 100 yards last week. Can lightning strike twice?)

Deebo Samuel – Despite not catching a touchdown and having a fairly quiet 7.8 fantasy points in PPR leagues last week, there is reason to be encouraged about Samuel. He was the most targeted receiver on the team, and he had nearly one-third of Garoppolo’s targets. He did have just two catches in the Week 12 game against Green Bay, but he did have a touchdown. San Francisco will still focus on the run, but they are going to have to throw more than the 19 times they did last week. The Packers secondary is actually pretty solid, but Deebo is a big, physical receiver that they might have trouble handling. Kevin King is the more sizeable of the two Packers corners, and he will be tested. Despite the dud last week, Samuel is still a very viable guy to use in the Conference Championship DFS contests.

Kendrick Bourne – He isn’t overly big, he isn’t crazy fast, but when the 49ers are in the red zone he seems to know how to get open and Garoppolo trusts him. Bourne is one of the more touchdown dependent players left in the playoffs, and he actually comes through a decent amount. He had only 44 targets all season long, and five of them went for touchdowns. He was great against the Vikings with three catches on five targets for 40 yards and a score, and remains a popular dart throw especially when the slates get so shallow. Bourne had just two catches for 27 yards against Green Bay during the regular season, and it was not one of the weeks he scored. He is far from a sure thing obviously, but if you are looking for someone cheap, he isn’t your worst option.

George Kittle – It is well documented that not only is George Kittle one hell of a run blocker, but he really likes to do it too. And when your offensive line is dominating and the run game is gashing the other team’s defense, there is no need to keep throwing. That was the main thing last week that made Kittle such a dud. He had just three catches for 16 yards against the Vikings, but it is unlikely that he is that ordinary again. The Packers gave up over 900 yards and six touchdowns to tight ends this season, including 129 yards and a touchdown to Kittle in Week 12. He let a lot of people down last week, but assuming San Francisco throws much more this week, Kittle is going to be the most targeted guy on the field. He is arguably the best tight end in the league, and is always a dynamite choice for a DFS roster.

Summary:  The 49ers destroyed the Packers back in Week 12 by the score of 37-8, in a smothering defensive effort. Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones were completely held in check. They were able to rebound, especially Jones, to steamroll down the stretch to a 13-3 record. They eliminated the Seahawks last week to set up this showdown. The Niners went 4-2 down the stretch facing mostly playoff teams. The crushed the Vikings in the second half last week to advance to the NFC title game. There is almost no way that the Packers aren’t more prepared this week. The problem here for Green Bay is that their defense is bad against the run, and the 49ers offense thrives on the run. Aaron Rodgers also isn’t as mobile as he used to be, and the San Francisco pass rush has been among the best in the game. Green Bay has had a great season, but it comes to an end on Sunday.

Prediction: 49ers 34, Packers 21

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