tylordyhemighty

NBA Paylines, 50/50's, etc.

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Ted and Mans and Ben and other experts,

Not trying to be nasty, but just trying to discuss things a bit.  I work 40+ hours a week, so I don't have time to do nearly as much research as I would like, that's why I subscribe to the site.  I'm hoping your site gives me an advantage, that's why I pay the $20 a month.  I'm also a nerd, so I do have an excel spreadsheet, and I'll take your Optimal Lineups and GPP lineups and plug them into a spreadsheet, try to basically get lineups that look like they'll get around 300 points.  But, and correct me if I'm wrong, I lost all my cash lineups last night, and I've lost the last 4-5 times I've played FA lineups (I haven't played everyday, I ran out of money on FD and had to put in another $200).  Now, sometimes I just use your straight up Optimal Lineup, because I look at the situations, and I generally agree, and I can see the "upside" in the lineups.  And I've been losing alot, again, I just ran out of bankroll and had to re-up.  Sometimes I'll change out 1 or two players, but it doesn't usually matter, I'm still losing.

My question is, is the general FD population of players catching up, because using your "expert" lineups, I'm still losing more often than not to more than 50% of the field.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't there a million "fantasy expert" sites out there?  Is Fantasy Guru, or Fantasy Elite, or Fantasy This or That putting out better lineups that others in the field are using?  Am I just being really unlucky, did the cash lineups cash all the nights I haven't played because I'm trying to not run out of bankroll? 

Last night, I believe the paylines were ridiculously high, or were they?  Are the paylines constantly going up?  Is the whole FD field getting better, is everyone using an "expert" lineup that they pay for, like me?  Again, I know you guys don't guarantee anything, I it's up to me to submit my lineup, but my thought process has either been "use your exact Optimal Lineup cause I generally agree that it looks good", or "swap out a player her or there and I lose anyway".  

I'm just wondering what your thoughts are.  I do listen to you an Mans quite a bit, and I enjoy listening to you guys, but I'm just wondering if I'm the only one still losing more often than not with your lineups, am I just playing the "losing nights".  I think I've played and lost on the 19th, 12th, 9th, 8th, the last time I won was on the 7th.  So yeah, let me know your thoughts if you would, I'm just trying to keep my bankroll going.  I using put over 90% of my entry fees in 50/50, then I play the single entry, 1 and 2 dollar tournaments, just hoping I might strike gold, but I'm losing my bankroll.  

Any help with getting my payroll to go in the other direction would be greatly appreciated!

Or any other players have thoughts or in a similar predicament?  I'm just a guy, working way too much, but loves playing this daily game and I don't want to keep losing money in this economy!!

Thanks guys! 

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Hi Ty

  Can only speak for myself but the optimal lineups page is one of the many tools that you are subscribed to. Using a combination of all of the tools and then looking at the optimal lineup page is the best way to go about it

  I fully understand you and other users may not have the time, and look for the OL's a the main source. What the spreadsheet may not tell you is that a player was injured five minutes into the game, or Washington was up 20 points with three minutes left and Wall is still in and scores 8 more points. Not saying that is the difference but I know it has killed me lately. 

    Best advice is probably not what you want to hear but to try a different site or other type of contests to see if those work better. 

  Finally, GPP lineups are had. I had maybe a small hit percentage last season but two times the finished in the top 50 or won which is why people play the large gpps. Going to see star wars now but private message me with other questions and happy to talk more. 

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Man, DFS is tough at times. You will find that your winning runs in streaks and slumps. I believe you are right, there are a hundred sites out there giving advice right now. There is no information that is not available anymore. Out of the hundreds of sites, there are only a few that I consider actually viable sources for DFS. By a few, I mean four. And we are one of them. Ben is right, the FA site is designed to help build your lineup with the Optimals as a guide. Try using the Playbook and Position Coach, then build a LU and check it versus the Optimals. Now, keep in mind, you will have one guy doing the coach, and another the playbook.

Keep at it, I have been playing every day now for almost five years, baseball, basketball, and football. If you are consistent, at some point, you will have a big score. If you are having a lot of trouble cashing, play 50/50's, throw in a quintuple up or two, and the most expensive single entry GPP you can afford with the lowest number of entrants. When you see these screen shots of experts winning $6k, you will notice they win most of it in $300-$1000 GPPs with a small group, only winning $10 in a $3 donkey. That is the difference. Good luck, any way I can help, hit me up on Twiiter @realjerrycolvin.

Jerry

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Yeah, I think I just really have bad luck as well.  I tried playing the Optimals in basketball and hockey a couple times again, and lost all of them.  Got 51st in a couple of the 50/50, played guys like TJ Warren/Zach Randolph/Zeller/Deng based off of either Optimal or Playbook recommendations.  And they killed me.  That's where I'm missing, and I know it's all circumstantial.  I don't know if Warren got hurt that one night, but he 2 points in 17 minutes, and I finished 51st in that 50/50.  It's just things like that, I don't think he was really a bad recommendation, he had 24 points in 41 minutes the night before, and was dirt cheap.  Just stuff like that seems to happen to me, I'm cursed.  I feel I curse the whole FA community when I play, haha.  

I can't keep at it at the moment, I'm out of money.  I put in another $200 awhile ago, and I swore I could cash out every time I won, and I did, I did cash out $170, but I slowly lost it all, even playing as low as $5 a night ($ 4 in 50/50's, $1 in a single entry GPP).  But I lost $30 with that $200 investment.  But I'll be back someday, I just need to focus on buying gas and groceries at the moment.

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On 1/9/2017 at 10:44 AM, tylordyhemighty said:

Yeah, I think I just really have bad luck as well.  I tried playing the Optimals in basketball and hockey a couple times again, and lost all of them.  Got 51st in a couple of the 50/50, played guys like TJ Warren/Zach Randolph/Zeller/Deng based off of either Optimal or Playbook recommendations.  And they killed me.  That's where I'm missing, and I know it's all circumstantial.  I don't know if Warren got hurt that one night, but he 2 points in 17 minutes, and I finished 51st in that 50/50.  It's just things like that, I don't think he was really a bad recommendation, he had 24 points in 41 minutes the night before, and was dirt cheap.  Just stuff like that seems to happen to me, I'm cursed.  I feel I curse the whole FA community when I play, haha.  

I can't keep at it at the moment, I'm out of money.  I put in another $200 awhile ago, and I swore I could cash out every time I won, and I did, I did cash out $170, but I slowly lost it all, even playing as low as $5 a night ($ 4 in 50/50's, $1 in a single entry GPP).  But I lost $30 with that $200 investment.  But I'll be back someday, I just need to focus on buying gas and groceries at the moment.

Dude I TOTALLY empathize. I'm in the exact same boat. I secretly think all these sites put out "good info and OLs" and keep the nuts for themselves! Haha jk FA guys. Love your content and analysis. I am just missing cashing quite a bit regardless of what I do. 

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On 1/9/2017 at 10:44 AM, tylordyhemighty said:

Yeah, I think I just really have bad luck as well.  I tried playing the Optimals in basketball and hockey a couple times again, and lost all of them.  Got 51st in a couple of the 50/50, played guys like TJ Warren/Zach Randolph/Zeller/Deng based off of either Optimal or Playbook recommendations.  And they killed me.  That's where I'm missing, and I know it's all circumstantial.  I don't know if Warren got hurt that one night, but he 2 points in 17 minutes, and I finished 51st in that 50/50.  It's just things like that, I don't think he was really a bad recommendation, he had 24 points in 41 minutes the night before, and was dirt cheap.  Just stuff like that seems to happen to me, I'm cursed.  I feel I curse the whole FA community when I play, haha.  

I can't keep at it at the moment, I'm out of money.  I put in another $200 awhile ago, and I swore I could cash out every time I won, and I did, I did cash out $170, but I slowly lost it all, even playing as low as $5 a night ($ 4 in 50/50's, $1 in a single entry GPP).  But I lost $30 with that $200 investment.  But I'll be back someday, I just need to focus on buying gas and groceries at the moment.

 

hey man, if you still need help. Either read our position coach articles or hit me up on twitter and I can try to help you personally. @BrettSquiresDFS on Twitter. 

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