DFS Strategy: Park factors for hitters and pitchers

Published: May 17, 2015

Next up in our series looking at the various influences on a daily player projection are park factors. By means of review, the first step of the Fantasy Alarm daily player projection process is to take the seasonal expectation and convert it to a neutral park projection. After all the other adjustments are made, the projection is then catered to the venue of that day's game.

A neutral park projection is 100. Anything over that increases the occurrence of that stat in question and vice versa. For example a park factor of 100 for home runs means the venue increases home runs by 10 percent over a neutral park.

Park factors are presented as three-year averages as a means to account for sample size anomalies that isn't fleshed out over the course of a 162-game season. The calculation is designed to eliminate everything but the park itself though noise will always remain. Using a three-year average reduces the residual noise but there will always be an error bar. The best evidence for this is the domed stadiums don't display the same factor each year.

Every player isn't influenced equally via a park factor but big-picture, it's better to apply it in a universal manner than trying to guess how much it affects a player on an individual basis.

To get a better adjustment for hitters, the various factors are determined for left-handed hitters and right-handed hitters. Pitchers are adjusted via the overall park effect.

It may seem odd to compute factors for strikeouts and walks but they indeed exist and since they're both stats used in DFS scoring, it makes sense to adjust those as well. The reason for venues affecting whiffs and walks can be foul territory and atmospheric conditions such as pressure and humidity. The hitting eye in each venue differs as well.

What follows are the three-year averages for hitters and pitchers. These are the factors that are used in the Fantasy Alarm daily projections.

HITTING PARK FACTORS (2012-2014)

	HR-LHB	HR-RHB	2B-LHB	2B-RHB	3B-LHB	3B-RHB	BB-LHB	BB-RHB	K-LHB	K-RHB	H-LHB	H-RHB
ARI	116	109	118	105	137	172	90	101	97	100	105	100
ATL	101	96	107	95	107	91	107	96	113	107	100	98
BAL	132	110	94	97	63	69	102	102	95	100	103	103
BOS	71	103	153	126	163	68	101	105	101	96	107	106
CHC	87	110	115	103	87	108	106	105	102	104	105	98
CIN	155	132	89	102	139	84	104	108	111	109	97	100
CLE	110	92	98	106	49	48	91	100	97	113	100	94
COL	136	123	106	114	222	140	98	97	81	82	113	118
CWS	113	126	102	92	100	68	126	105	108	102	96	103
DET	106	102	78	112	199	167	99	108	93	87	101	105
HOU	109	112	86	101	108	141	109	96	102	107	96	99
KC	93	92	107	102	137	123	90	107	92	92	102	103
LAA	80	86	101	92	115	76	88	90	110	99	97	98
LAD	120	108	97	94	51	41	87	93	99	106	101	94
MIA	62	79	96	110	145	164	98	104	94	96	97	101
MIL	148	133	93	99	80	107	101	110	110	99	103	100
MIN	88	98	97	113	173	115	96	103	95	92	102	104
NYM	101	111	89	90	79	66	102	100	104	106	90	94
NYY	131	125	94	90	52	77	105	101	102	106	104	97
OAK	82	90	99	106	156	86	108	99	93	97	95	100
PHI	122	134	99	96	85	91	107	100	109	105	96	96
PIT	84	59	103	100	56	90	100	85	89	92	100	97
SD	87	76	92	88	86	177	99	107	107	106	92	93
SEA	91	81	90	87	45	79	104	88	104	107	93	93
SF	67	69	99	94	169	143	97	114	100	102	99	93
STL	97	88	106	106	127	97	95	101	93	98	101	98
TB	82	88	91	90	122	117	102	103	103	104	92	96
TEX	111	94	95	94	114	140	103	102	99	96	106	100
TOR	112	126	133	114	94	122	99	96	110	104	100	102
WSH	80	87	107	103	74	68	107	93	94	95	107	106

PITCHING PARK FACTORS (2012-2014)?

	RUNS	HR	BB	K	H
ARI	110	111	96	99	102
ATL	98	98	101	109	99
BAL	105	118	102	98	103
BOS	108	87	103	99	107
CHC	105	100	105	103	101
CIN	102	139	104	110	99
CLE	93	102	93	104	98
COL	145	127	98	82	117
CWS	111	119	113	104	100
DET	107	104	104	90	104
HOU	101	111	102	105	98
KC	104	92	98	92	103
LAA	90	83	89	103	98
LAD	88	112	90	103	97
MIA	101	72	102	96	100
MIL	109	134	107	103	101
MIN	106	94	99	94	103
NYM	86	106	100	105	93
NYY	101	126	104	104	101
OAK	93	86	103	95	97
PHI	100	126	104	107	96
PIT	88	68	90	91	98
SD	84	79	102	106	93
SEA	83	86	97	105	93
SF	84	67	106	101	95
STL	99	91	98	96	99
TB	93	85	103	103	94
TEX	108	101	102	97	102
TOR	106	120	97	107	101
WSH	103	84	98	94	107

If you use the site's projections, all this is already incorporated. However, if you set your lineups by feel, and intuitively make alterations, you'll want to take a long look at some of the factors since there's likely a few are a bit surprising. The main disconnects are between parks whose HR and run factors are opposite, We tend to think of them in pairs, but especially when it comes to selecting pitcher, we're probably unduly penalizing some starters that are deserved of a start but end up on the sidelines in a perceived hitting park. The key is for pitchers, we don't really care if it's a home run park so long as run scoring is neutral or depressed. If you're using a hitter in a stand-alone scenario, the HR factor is most important. If you're stacking, it works best in a park positive for runs with HR a bonus.

Let's take a look at some of the curious venues.

HIGH HOMERS IN A PITCHERS PARK

CITI FIELD - Recent renovations have made the New York Mets home venue a positive HR park even though it's still plays like an extreme pitcher's park.

DODGER STADIUM - A few years back, they moved home plate relative to the fences and the effect was to increase homers but runs remain hard to come by.

HIGH HOMERS WITH NEUTRAL RUNS

YANKEE STADIUM: The Bronx ball yard is wonderful for homers but plays neutral for runs. This is one of the parks where intuition says not to start pitcher. The numbers say it's fine to use an arm in Yankee Stadium.

THE GREAT AMERICAN BALLPARK: The American Small Park is a misnomer in that run scoring is neutral.

CITIZENS BANK PARK: The home of the Philadelphia Phillies is similar to Yankee Stadium; it helps homers a lot but is neutral for runs.

MINUTE MAID PARK: Another sneaky park for neutral runs while embellishing homers.

LOW HOMERS WITH NEUTRAL OR POSITIVE RUNS

TARGET FIELD: The perception is the Minnesota Twins home is a pitcher's park. While it suppresses homers, it's beneficial for runs.

KAUFFMAN STADIUM: The K may squash power but it plays positive for runs so your pitchers aren't as safe as you may intuit.

MARLINS PARK: Ditto for the Aquarium. It's really not called that bit it should be. If the team is nicknamed the Fish, they should play in the Aquarium. The points is Marlins Park kills power but runs are neutral.

PARKS WITH SPLITS

FENWAY PARK: Some parks have hugely different HR factors for lefties and righties. The Fens croaks left-handed power while right-handed pop is neutral. The renovations above home plate reduced the wind currents towards The Monster. however, overall, Fenway Park is a great runs park since the Monster turns a bunch of outs into doubles and there's limited foul territory.

PROGRESSIVE PARK: Overall, the Cleveland Indians home depresses runs but a latent quirk is it's very good for left-handed power.

WRIGLEY FIELD: Very good for right-handed power, not so good for lefty swingers.

GLOBE LIFE PARK: Recent renovations is Arlington have significantly reduced the wind tunnel effect, lowering power for righties to below average.

NOT WHAT THEY SEEM

?COMERICA PARK: The Detroit Tigers play in a pitcher's park, right? WRONG! Comerica is on a par with Fenway and Rogers Center in terms of run scoring.

TURNER FIELD: The perception is Turner Field is a pitchers park but it plays neutral.

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	HR-LHB	HR-RHB	2B-LHB	2B-RHB	3B-LHB	3B-RHB	BB-LHB	BB-RHB	K-LHB	K-RHB	H-LHB	H-RHB
ARI	116	109	118	105	137	172	90	101	97	100	105	100
ATL	101	96	107	95	107	91	107	96	113	107	100	98
BAL	132	110	94	97	63	69	102	102	95	100	103	103
BOS	71	103	153	126	163	68	101	105	101	96	107	106
CHC	87	110	115	103	87	108	106	105	102	104	105	98
CIN	155	132	89	102	139	84	104	108	111	109	97	100
CLE	110	92	98	106	49	48	91	100	97	113	100	94
COL	136	123	106	114	222	140	98	97	81	82	113	118
CWS	113	126	102	92	100	68	126	105	108	102	96	103
DET	106	102	78	112	199	167	99	108	93	87	101	105
HOU	109	112	86	101	108	141	109	96	102	107	96	99
KC	93	92	107	102	137	123	90	107	92	92	102	103
LAA	80	86	101	92	115	76	88	90	110	99	97	98
LAD	120	108	97	94	51	41	87	93	99	106	101	94
MIA	62	79	96	110	145	164	98	104	94	96	97	101
MIL	148	133	93	99	80	107	101	110	110	99	103	100
MIN	88	98	97	113	173	115	96	103	95	92	102	104
NYM	101	111	89	90	79	66	102	100	104	106	90	94
NYY	131	125	94	90	52	77	105	101	102	106	104	97
OAK	82	90	99	106	156	86	108	99	93	97	95	100
PHI	122	134	99	96	85	91	107	100	109	105	96	96
PIT	84	59	103	100	56	90	100	85	89	92	100	97
SD	87	76	92	88	86	177	99	107	107	106	92	93
SEA	91	81	90	87	45	79	104	88	104	107	93	93
SF	67	69	99	94	169	143	97	114	100	102	99	93
STL	97	88	106	106	127	97	95	101	93	98	101	98
TB	82	88	91	90	122	117	102	103	103	104	92	96
TEX	111	94	95	94	114	140	103	102	99	96	106	100
TOR	112	126	133	114	94	122	99	96	110	104	100	102
WSH	80	87	107	103	74	68	107	93	94	95	107	106

	RUNS	HR	BB	K	H
ARI	110	111	96	99	102
ATL	98	98	101	109	99
BAL	105	118	102	98	103
BOS	108	87	103	99	107
CHC	105	100	105	103	101
CIN	102	139	104	110	99
CLE	93	102	93	104	98
COL	145	127	98	82	117
CWS	111	119	113	104	100
DET	107	104	104	90	104
HOU	101	111	102	105	98
KC	104	92	98	92	103
LAA	90	83	89	103	98
LAD	88	112	90	103	97
MIA	101	72	102	96	100
MIL	109	134	107	103	101
MIN	106	94	99	94	103
NYM	86	106	100	105	93
NYY	101	126	104	104	101
OAK	93	86	103	95	97
PHI	100	126	104	107	96
PIT	88	68	90	91	98
SD	84	79	102	106	93
SEA	83	86	97	105	93
SF	84	67	106	101	95
STL	99	91	98	96	99
TB	93	85	103	103	94
TEX	108	101	102	97	102
TOR	106	120	97	107	101
WSH	103	84	98	94	107

	HR-LHB	HR-RHB	2B-LHB	2B-RHB	3B-LHB	3B-RHB	BB-LHB	BB-RHB	K-LHB	K-RHB	H-LHB	H-RHB
ARI	116	109	118	105	137	172	90	101	97	100	105	100
ATL	101	96	107	95	107	91	107	96	113	107	100	98
BAL	132	110	94	97	63	69	102	102	95	100	103	103
BOS	71	103	153	126	163	68	101	105	101	96	107	106
CHC	87	110	115	103	87	108	106	105	102	104	105	98
CIN	155	132	89	102	139	84	104	108	111	109	97	100
CLE	110	92	98	106	49	48	91	100	97	113	100	94
COL	136	123	106	114	222	140	98	97	81	82	113	118
CWS	113	126	102	92	100	68	126	105	108	102	96	103
DET	106	102	78	112	199	167	99	108	93	87	101	105
HOU	109	112	86	101	108	141	109	96	102	107	96	99
KC	93	92	107	102	137	123	90	107	92	92	102	103
LAA	80	86	101	92	115	76	88	90	110	99	97	98
LAD	120	108	97	94	51	41	87	93	99	106	101	94
MIA	62	79	96	110	145	164	98	104	94	96	97	101
MIL	148	133	93	99	80	107	101	110	110	99	103	100
MIN	88	98	97	113	173	115	96	103	95	92	102	104
NYM	101	111	89	90	79	66	102	100	104	106	90	94
NYY	131	125	94	90	52	77	105	101	102	106	104	97
OAK	82	90	99	106	156	86	108	99	93	97	95	100
PHI	122	134	99	96	85	91	107	100	109	105	96	96
PIT	84	59	103	100	56	90	100	85	89	92	100	97
SD	87	76	92	88	86	177	99	107	107	106	92	93
SEA	91	81	90	87	45	79	104	88	104	107	93	93
SF	67	69	99	94	169	143	97	114	100	102	99	93
STL	97	88	106	106	127	97	95	101	93	98	101	98
TB	82	88	91	90	122	117	102	103	103	104	92	96
TEX	111	94	95	94	114	140	103	102	99	96	106	100
TOR	112	126	133	114	94	122	99	96	110	104	100	102
WSH	80	87	107	103	74	68	107	93	94	95	107	106

	RUNS	HR	BB	K	H
ARI	110	111	96	99	102
ATL	98	98	101	109	99
BAL	105	118	102	98	103
BOS	108	87	103	99	107
CHC	105	100	105	103	101
CIN	102	139	104	110	99
CLE	93	102	93	104	98
COL	145	127	98	82	117
CWS	111	119	113	104	100
DET	107	104	104	90	104
HOU	101	111	102	105	98
KC	104	92	98	92	103
LAA	90	83	89	103	98
LAD	88	112	90	103	97
MIA	101	72	102	96	100
MIL	109	134	107	103	101
MIN	106	94	99	94	103
NYM	86	106	100	105	93
NYY	101	126	104	104	101
OAK	93	86	103	95	97
PHI	100	126	104	107	96
PIT	88	68	90	91	98
SD	84	79	102	106	93
SEA	83	86	97	105	93
SF	84	67	106	101	95
STL	99	91	98	96	99
TB	93	85	103	103	94
TEX	108	101	102	97	102
TOR	106	120	97	107	101
WSH	103	84	98	94	107

	HR-LHB	HR-RHB	2B-LHB	2B-RHB	3B-LHB	3B-RHB	BB-LHB	BB-RHB	K-LHB	K-RHB	H-LHB	H-RHB
ARI	116	109	118	105	137	172	90	101	97	100	105	100
ATL	101	96	107	95	107	91	107	96	113	107	100	98
BAL	132	110	94	97	63	69	102	102	95	100	103	103
BOS	71	103	153	126	163	68	101	105	101	96	107	106
CHC	87	110	115	103	87	108	106	105	102	104	105	98
CIN	155	132	89	102	139	84	104	108	111	109	97	100
CLE	110	92	98	106	49	48	91	100	97	113	100	94
COL	136	123	106	114	222	140	98	97	81	82	113	118
CWS	113	126	102	92	100	68	126	105	108	102	96	103
DET	106	102	78	112	199	167	99	108	93	87	101	105
HOU	109	112	86	101	108	141	109	96	102	107	96	99
KC	93	92	107	102	137	123	90	107	92	92	102	103
LAA	80	86	101	92	115	76	88	90	110	99	97	98
LAD	120	108	97	94	51	41	87	93	99	106	101	94
MIA	62	79	96	110	145	164	98	104	94	96	97	101
MIL	148	133	93	99	80	107	101	110	110	99	103	100
MIN	88	98	97	113	173	115	96	103	95	92	102	104
NYM	101	111	89	90	79	66	102	100	104	106	90	94
NYY	131	125	94	90	52	77	105	101	102	106	104	97
OAK	82	90	99	106	156	86	108	99	93	97	95	100
PHI	122	134	99	96	85	91	107	100	109	105	96	96
PIT	84	59	103	100	56	90	100	85	89	92	100	97
SD	87	76	92	88	86	177	99	107	107	106	92	93
SEA	91	81	90	87	45	79	104	88	104	107	93	93
SF	67	69	99	94	169	143	97	114	100	102	99	93
STL	97	88	106	106	127	97	95	101	93	98	101	98
TB	82	88	91	90	122	117	102	103	103	104	92	96
TEX	111	94	95	94	114	140	103	102	99	96	106	100
TOR	112	126	133	114	94	122	99	96	110	104	100	102
WSH	80	87	107	103	74	68	107	93	94	95	107	106

	RUNS	HR	BB	K	H
ARI	110	111	96	99	102
ATL	98	98	101	109	99
BAL	105	118	102	98	103
BOS	108	87	103	99	107
CHC	105	100	105	103	101
CIN	102	139	104	110	99
CLE	93	102	93	104	98
COL	145	127	98	82	117
CWS	111	119	113	104	100
DET	107	104	104	90	104
HOU	101	111	102	105	98
KC	104	92	98	92	103
LAA	90	83	89	103	98
LAD	88	112	90	103	97
MIA	101	72	102	96	100
MIL	109	134	107	103	101
MIN	106	94	99	94	103
NYM	86	106	100	105	93
NYY	101	126	104	104	101
OAK	93	86	103	95	97
PHI	100	126	104	107	96
PIT	88	68	90	91	98
SD	84	79	102	106	93
SEA	83	86	97	105	93
SF	84	67	106	101	95
STL	99	91	98	96	99
TB	93	85	103	103	94
TEX	108	101	102	97	102
TOR	106	120	97	107	101
WSH	103	84	98	94	107