Tampa Bay Lightning @ New Jersey Devils
We have a battle of the best and worst in the Eastern Conference, which is also the only game on the slate with an over-under higher than 5.5, coming in at 6.5 goals. This is looking to be the spot to target for some offense because even with the Devils being the worst team in the east, they come in with an implied goal total set at 3.04 which is third highest on the slate. In reality, neither goalie should be in play tonight simply for the fact that they will be giving up goals and aren’t that good to being with. Louis Domingue will be in net for Tampa Bay and has given up three or more goals in three straight games, but should come away with the win. Keith Kinkaid will be in net for the Devils and has four goals in four straight games, don’t play him.
When it comes to the offense, we know what we are getting with the Lightning, a team who can easily put up four or five goals, but are very expensive if you want to roster their first power-play unit. Steven Stamkos is still a bit too cheap on DraftKings, so he should be good in all formats tonight, so look to have plenty of exposure to him. Ondrej Palat and Yanni Gourde are up on the first line with Stamkos and are very, very reasonably priced across the industry, with Gourde also being on the first power-play unit. Adding Victor Hedman to any lineup is usually a good thing and tonight should be no different. Dropping down to the second power-play of J.T. Miller, Alex Killorn, Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat and Mikhail Sergachev saves you a bit of money and will allow you to save some money for another team’s line stack.
On the New Jersey side of things, Taylor Hall will always project to be their top point producer with his time on the first forward line, first power-play unit and taking over three shots per game. It’s always in the cards that Hall posts multiple points but the Devils still lose the game. If you are shooting for a game stack tonight, Hall is essentially a must play since he will be involved in most of the scoring for the Devils. Since the Tampa goalie Domingue isn’t that good, going heavy on a Devils stack certainly has plenty of upside, but still with the first unit of Hall, Nico Hischier, Kyle Palmieri and Will Butcher.
Buffalo Sabres @ Nashville Predators
The Sabres have lost two in a row after their 10-game win streak and now face a tough test, as they are going up against the best in the Western Conference, the Nashville Predators. The Predators come in as -170 home favorites which are the largest favorite on the slate, which should make Pekka Rinne a popular option in net tonight. He has given up two or more goals in four straight games and has only come away with the win in one of those games. Carter Hutton will be in net for the Sabres tonight and makes a solid GPP option since the Predators come in with the highest expected Corsi For on the slate sitting at 47.9. Yes, this means he could be under pressure all night, but if the saves will be there, the upside from points will also be there. The Sabres have an implied goal total sitting at 2.40, which is lowest of any team on the slate, so they are GPP only tonight.
The Predators are an interesting team to stack tonight, since they have no players over $7K on either site, meaning you can stack them up and they truly won’t break the bank. The issue with the Predators is that their forward lines aren’t correlated a ton with their power-play units. They have Ryan Johansen and Kevin Fiala on the first forward line and the first power-play, with Eeli Tolvanen and Craig Smith on the second forward line but both on the first power-play unit. Rostering all of them does spread your exposure across three different offensive units, which can be good in some circumstances. They also have three different defenders who see power-play time and are all solid for cash games tonight, Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, and Mattias Ekholm.
If you want to roster the Sabres tonight, know that it’s for GPPs only and you are doing so to be contrarian, which can be an interesting strategy on a small three-game slate. I would stick with their top power-play unit since they have the highest goal equity and have a nice correlation. Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart, Jeff Skinner, and Rasmus Ristolainen is who you should be targeting as a Sabres stack tonight.
Edmonton Oilers @ Dallas Stars
This game will see Oilers new coach Ken Hitchcock go up against his former team Dallas, in what should be a very interesting game. Both teams will be starting backup goalies, with Mikko Koskinen in net for the Oilers and Anton Khudobin in net for Dallas. Koskinen has been playing very well for the Oilers, giving up two or fewer goals in four straight games, while Khudobin has given up three or more goals in four of his last five games. This game has the Stars coming in at -126 home favorites and the Oilers at +106 road dogs, so we should be seeing a close game.
Truly don’t love either offense in this game considering their prices, which is better spent on a team like the Lightning, who are in a much better spot. If you want to go to the Oilers, clearly spending up for the first forward line and first power-play is the way to go. Connor McDavid is basically matchup-proof and should be in play anytime he is on the slate. Pairing him with Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Oscar Klefbom always make a great GPP stack due to their scoring upside.
The Stars top line is where I would want exposure to, but the Stars come in with an expected Corsi For set at 44.4, which is second lowest on the slate, so their potential doesn’t project to be super high tonight. It also doesn’t help that the Stars first power-play is super expensive and we are dealing with a lack of value on this three-game slate. If you do want to go there, stick with Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, Alexander Radulov, and Miro Heiskanen, who is the defender on the first power-play unit.