Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds

Dodgers -155

Game Total: 9.0

Los Angeles Dodgers

-          The Dodgers come in with an implied run total set at 4.95, which should put them in a spot to score plenty of runs tonight since they are in a great hitter’s park.

-          The Dodgers have some of the best offensive numbers in the league, as they come in with the 9th most runs scored, 9th in on-base percentage, 6th in slugging percentage, and 18th batting average.

-          They have some of the absolute best pitchers numbers in the league, which is why the Reds have an implied run total set at only 4.05. The Dodgers are 2nd in ERA, 2nd in quality starts, 2nd in WHIP, and 4th BAA.

-          Despite those numbers, the Dodgers offense is very average right now, scoring three or fewer runs in five of their last nine games.

-          They are up against Luis Castillo , who is giving up 2.28 HR/9 to lefties this season and 1.11 HR/9 to righties this season. The Dodgers have a .198 team ISO vs right-handed pitchers this season, which is best in the league.

-          Justin Turner has hits in five of his last seven games, with three doubles and one home run. He is in a great spot to continue that tonight vs a questionable RHP pitcher.

-          Max Muncy is struggling right now, as he only has three hits in his last seven games, but as I mentioned above, Castillo really struggles vs left-handed hitters this season.

-          Chris Taylor has three multi-hit games over his last five outings, proving to be one of their more consistent options as we move to the end of the season.

Cincinnati Reds

-          Luis Castillo is on the mound for the Reds tonight, who has seven or more strikeouts in four of his last five starts, which lines up nicely vs the Dodgers, who have a 22.5% strikeout rate vs righties.

-          Castillo has allowed five or more earned runs in two of his last five starts but has allowed a total of three earned runs in the other three starts. Very hit or miss from him this season.

-          Overall, the Reds have one of the worst pitching staffs in the league, as they are 24th in ERA, 26th in quality starts, 28th in WHIP and 27th in BAA.

-          Their offense is also hit or miss, as they are 13th in runs scored, 16th in slugging percentage, but 4th in batting average and 3rd in on-base percentage.

-          The Reds have lost five of their last eight games while giving up five or more runs in six of those same eight games.

-          They are up against Hyun-Jin Ryu , who has allowed a total of seven earned runs in his last five starts while adding five or more strikeouts in four of those starts.

 

1.)    Either team records an extra-base hit in the 1st Inning 4.2/1.7

Going with YES on this one, but it really comes from the Dodgers side of things. Luis Castillo is giving up a 39% hard contact rate this season, while Ryu is only giving up a 33% hard contact rate.

2.)    Both teams record a strikeout in the 1st Inning 4.5/1.6

Also going with YES on this one. Castillo has an almost 24% strikeout rate in a positive strikeout matchup, while Ryu has a 28.8% K%.

3.)    L. Castillo (CIN) throws 15 or fewer pitches in the 1st Inning 3.3/2.2

NO on this one. The Dodgers do strikeout a good amount vs RHP, but I’m banking on Castillo getting hit a lot by the powerful Dodgers offense.

4.)    (CIN) swings at the first pitch 3.0/2.0

YES on this one. The Reds are the clear underdogs in this game and hopefully, they come out aggressive vs Ryu.