Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves +110 T: 9.5

This game has the Braves come in as the best team in the National League, hosting the Cubs who are fighting their way back over .500 after a slow start. This game has an over-under set at 9.5 runs with the Braves being a +110 underdog at home. With all of that, we should be set for a relatively high scoring close game. This is great from a fantasy perspective since there are viable options for both teams.

We have Jon Lester pitching for the Cubs, who comes in with a 22% strikeout rate this season along with an 8.4% walk rate. The Braves only have a 17% strikeout rate vs left-handed pitchers, so the strikeout upside might be limited for him tonight. Lester has looked of late, only allowing three earned over his last three starts. This will be one of his tougher matchups this season, so know that he could be in for a rough game.

On the other side Mike Soraka was scheduled to pitch for the Braves but he was scratched and placed on the disabled list.  Instead going for the Braves will be lefty Max Fried .

The offense should be the more exciting part of this game, as we have some of the best power hitters along with some rising young talent. On the Cubs, we have Kris Bryant , Anthony Rizzo , and Kyle Schwarber leading the way for the Cubs, who will see a nice positive park shift since this game is in Atlanta. They also have options later in the lineup who have upside, Javier Báez , Addison Russell , Ian Happ or Ben Zobrist as well as catcher Willson Contreras who rakes against left-handed pitching.

On the Braves side of things, they are led by Freddie Freeman , who is great against both types of pitchers and is a play on any slate. He is followed by Ozzie Albies Ronald Acuna , and Nick Markakis . Both teams have implied run totals set at 4.2 or higher, and the offense should come from this bunch. There is some potential for rain in this game, so a bit of risk here, but since it’s warm there, we could be seeing a few long balls tonight.

Overall, this isn’t going to be a pitching duel by any means, and you should be betting on the offense here to shine through. The Braves might be the better team right now, but the Cubs are no pushover. For a game in the middle of May, we could actually be seeing a nice preview of two teams who are lined up to make the playoffs.

Pre-Game Props

Q1: Ozzie Albies sees more pitches than Kris Bryant in the 1st inning.

I am going to go with NO for my response here. Despite the control issues by both pitchers Albies is the more aggressive hitter between the two, seeing an average of 3.6 pitches per plate appearance while Bryant sees an average of 3.89 pitchers per plate appearance.

Q2: Max Fried throws more pitches than Jon Lester in the 1st inning.

I am going to go with a YES for this question.  Though both teams hit well against left-handed pitching I am going to roll with the Cubs lineup making Fried work in the top of the 1st inning much more than the Braves will make Jon Lester work.

Q3: Both teams record a groundout in the 1st inning.

This is really a toss-up question given the nature of launch angle in the MLB right now but it is hard not to imagine at least one ground out happening here so I will go with YES.

Q:4 A Cubs batter swings at the 1st pitch of an at bat in the first inning.

This is a tricky one because the more free-swinging of the Cubs hitters are sitting towards the middle to back end of the lineup.  If it gets to somebody like Javy Baez I can certainly see him swinging at the first pitch.  I will go ahead and say YES to this question.

Q5: A Braves outfielder records an out in the 1st inning.

I am going to go with a YES on this one.  I expect some balls to be hit in the air in the first inning off Fried and seeing as they won’t all be leaving the yard I do expect an out to be recorded by a Braves outfielder.

Q:6 Two or more Cubs batters reach a full count in the 1st inning.

I am going to go with NO for this one.  The Cubs may be a patient hitting team but they are not that patient.  I see most putting the ball in play by the third or fourth pitch.

Q7: Albert Almora reaches any two-ball count.

I am going to go with NO for this one. Almora has just an eight percent walk rate this season and sees just 3.48 pitches per plate appearances.  He is up there to get his hacks.  He also loves hitting against left-handed pitchers, so I look for him to be aggressive to begin the game