GODSENT (World rank: #27) vs. Unjustified (World rank: #95) - 8:00 P.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: GODSENT (-4660) | Unjustified (+1550)

Map Handicap: GODSENT -1.5 (-615) | Unjustified +1.5 (+385)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+425) | Under 2.5 (-690)

  • This is a best-of-three online series for ESL Challenger League Season 41 North America - Group A
  • GODSENT - Rating at event: dumau 1.18 | TACO 1.10 | HEN1 1.09 | b4rtiN 0.97 | latto 0.88
  • GODSENT - Rating past three months: dumau  1.14 | HEN1 1.07 | latto 1.03 | b4rtiN 0.97 | TACO 0.90
  • Unjustified - Rating at event: Cyrix 1.07 | Just2EZ 0.98 | Sloopy 0.86 | jsfeltner 0.82 | Hitman 0.69
  • Unjustified - Rating past three months: Cyrix 1.18 | Just2EZ 1.04 | jsfeltner 1.03 | Sloopy 0.97 | Hitman  0.85

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other. 

Map Projections:

Unjustified removes Overpass

GODSENT removes Dust2

Unjustified picks Inferno

GODSENT picks Ancient

Unjustified removes Nuke

GODSENT removes Mirage

Vertigo is left over

Prediction/Narrative: GODSENT wins 2-0.

We’ve seen some massive upsets in recent weeks, particularly with Brazilian teams involved, but I just can’t see GODSENT ever dropping this series. GODSENT are a (-4660) moneyline favorite which gives them 97.9% implied odds of winning. GODSENT have continued to improve since adding HEN1 in the lineup, and they have an 11-8 W/L record across 19 maps played in the past month. The Brazilians have proven that they can win against North American opponents, and Unjustified should be no exception after starting this event 0-2. Unjustified have a 6-11 W/L record across 17 maps played in the past month, and their biggest accomplishment is winning a single map against paiN in a best-of-three that they went on to lose. Unjustified have played well on Mirage with a 5-1 W/L record and 81.7% 5v4 conversion rate, and Inferno is their favorite map, but I just don’t think the map pool really matters here. I would favor GODSENT on every map in the pool, even Dust2. This should be an easy sweep for the Brazilians. 

  • On Inferno, dumau leads this GODSENT lineup with a 1.24 Rating and 1.42 K/D ratio across four maps played.
  • On Ancient, dumau leads this GODSENT lineup with a 1.05 Rating, while b4rtiN leads with a 1.02 K/D ratio across seven maps played.
  • TACO leads GODSENT with 22.8% opening duel attempts across 31 maps played with this lineup.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

TACO ($6,600) | dumau ($11,000) | latto ($9,000) | HEN1 ($10,200) | b4rtiN ($8,000) | Cyrix ($6,000)

 

ATK (World rank: #64) vs. TeamOne (World rank: #61) - 8:00 P.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: ATK (-145) | TeamOne (+110)

Map Handicap: ATK -1.5 (+195) | TeamOne +1.5 (-275)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-140)

  • This is a best-of-three online series for ESL Challenger League Season 41 North America - Group A
  • ATK - Rating at event: N/A
  • ATK - Rating past three months: b0denmaster 1.11 | motm 1.05 | Fadey 1.03 | Swisher 0.98 | MisteM 0.98
  • TeamOne - Rating at event: N/A
  • TeamOne - Rating past three months: pesadelo 1.16 | xns 1.08 | Maluk3 1.06 | trk  1.06 | iDk 0.93

H2H Data:

  • These rosters faced in April at IEM Dallas 2022 NA Open Qualifier 2 and ATK swept 2-0 (16-2 Mirage / 16-13 Ancient). Motm was the man of the match with 50 kills and a 1.54 Rating across two maps played. 

Map Projections:

TeamOne removes Vertigo

ATK removes Nuke

TeamOne picks Overpass

ATK picks Ancient

TeamOne removes Mirage

ATK removes Dust2

Inferno is left over

Prediction/Narrative: ATK wins 2-1.

These teams faced just a few weeks ago and ATK won with ease. Nobody on TeamOne managed a positive K/D ratio or a Rating of at least one. ATK dominated 16-2 on Mirage, and they won 10 rounds on T side Ancient, so they probably would have run away with that map too if that had won their CT pistol round. Either way, I haven’t been impressed by this new TeamOne roster that benched keiz just a few weeks back. TeamOne have replaced keiz for the time being with iDk, who was on their roster back in 2016-2019. TeamOne have a 2-3 W/L record with this lineup, and they have only managed to record two wins on Nuke, one against Counter Nature and the other against Third Impact. As for ATK, they have had mixed results themselves, but they have played a brutal schedule that includes FURIA, GODSENT, Party Astronauts in the past month. Despite the tough match-ups, ATK have managed an 11-14 W/L record across 25 maps played, and they have looked strong on Ancient (3-0 W/L record) and Mirage (3-1 W/L record). I suspect that TeamOne will likely switch from picking Mirage this time, but ATK should ban Nuke to start, which takes away the only map that the Brazilians have had success on. I’m expecting a closer series this time around, especially if TeamOne go for a map like Overpass where ATK have a 2-4 W/L record. Still, ATK still appears to be the clear better team at this point, and I expect them to win in three maps if they don’t sweep again. 

  • On Overpass, MisteM leads ATK with a 1.20 Rating and 1.25 K/D ratio across six maps played.
  • On Ancient, Swisher leads ATK with a 1.27 Rating and 1.31 K/D ratio across three maps played. 
  • On Inferno, b0denmaster leads ATK with a 1.13 Rating and 1.18 K/D ratio across seven maps played.
  • b0denmaster leads ATK with 22.4% opening duel attempts across 25 maps played. 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

b0denmaster ($8,600) | MisteM ($5,200) | Swisher ($6,200) | motm ($7,600) | Maluk3 ($5,800) | fadey ($6,800) | pesadelo ($8,400) | xns ($7,400) 

 

*Top Stacks: GODSENT, ATK

*Favorite Captain Plays: dumau, b0denmaster, latto, HEN1, motm

*Favorite Value Plays: TACO, MisteM, b4rtiN, Swisher, Maluk3, fadey